MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 7/13/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or a moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Padres ML (-172) - 2 Stars
Padres -1.5 (-110) - 2 Stars
While the total feels like a trap with two solid hurlers on the mound at Coors Field, I'm good backing the better one at this elevated price.
If the season ended today, Joe Musgrove would get my NL Cy Young vote -- even over the great Sandy Alcantara. The Padres' ace holds a low ERA (2.09) that's supported by a 3.37 solid skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He's also gotten his fair share of punchouts (25.5% rate), and he's limited hard contact (35.3% hard-hit rate allowed).
The Rockies counter with Chad Kuhl, who has posted a decent 4.02 ERA considering half of his games are in Denver, but a higher SIERA (4.85), a low strikeout rate (16.8%), and a worse hard-hit rate (41.7%) might mean it comes crashing down in the future.
Both of these teams hold a sub-90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the start of July, and that mirrors their season-long wRC+ against righties under 100.
With neither squad incredibly imposing in this projected split, I'll back the much better pitcher -- even on the road.
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Over 7.5 (+100) - 3 Stars
How could I possibly expect fewer than seven runs in Texas tonight after last night's fiesta?
These teams combined for 21 runs in 12 innings, and the Athletics prevailed with an 8-spot in the final frame. The prolonged affair means we've got tired bullpens, and the top pitchers in each of them pitched last night trying to secure the game in extra innings.
Many hurlers may be struggling through fatigue to pitch -- or just shut down altogether. That's not great news when Oakland and Texas have the fourth and eighth-worst bullpen in terms of xFIP since June 1st, respectively.
This total is low because Paul Blackburn and Jon Gray have been pretty solid this season, and neither of these squads crushes right-handed pitching. Still, the pair of aces (they are their clubs' aces...don't laugh) have a hard-hit rate of at least 39.0%, so a couple of balls could leave the yard.
Out of respect for the starters, a majority of the work to reach this total might have to come when they exit the contest, but it's more than possible considering 14 of the 21 runs last night came off of relievers.
