MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 7/14/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SD Kyle
Freeland
11.5 6.04 56.1% 40.0% 26.2% 15.7% 8.7%
ATL Anibal
Sanchez
10.0 5.83 52.7% 36.6% 23.3% 13.6% 7.3%
COL Blake
Snell
11.5 5.46 46.4% 30.8% 18.6% 10.2% 5.2%
CLE Elvin
Rodriguez
8.5 5.06 39.5% 24.7% 14.0% 7.2% 3.4%
LAD Dakota
Hudson
9.0 4.87 36.1% 21.9% 12.0% 6.0% 2.7%
MIN Johnny
Cueto
8.5 4.65 32.3% 18.9% 9.9% 4.8% 2.1%
NYY Luis
Castillo
8.0 4.58 31.1% 17.9% 9.3% 4.4% 1.9%
HOU Reid
Detmers
8.0 4.43 28.5% 16.0% 8.1% 3.7% 1.6%
TEX Marco
Gonzales
8.5 4.32 26.7% 14.7% 7.3% 3.2% 1.3%
MIA Zach
Thompson
7.5 4.20 24.7% 13.3% 6.4% 2.8% 1.1%
SEA Martin
Perez
8.5 4.18 24.4% 13.0% 6.3% 2.7% 1.1%
WSH Kyle
Wright
10.0 4.17 24.2% 12.9% 6.2% 2.7% 1.1%
STL Tyler
Anderson
9.0 4.13 23.6% 12.5% 5.9% 2.5% 1.0%
TB Kutter
Crawford
7.5 3.94 20.6% 10.5% 4.8% 2.0% 0.7%
NYM Keegan
Thompson
7.5 3.91 20.1% 10.2% 4.6% 1.9% 0.7%
CHW Sonny
Gray
8.5 3.85 19.2% 9.6% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6%
CHC Carlos
Carrasco
7.5 3.59 15.5% 7.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4%
LAA Framber
Valdez
8.0 3.57 15.2% 7.1% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4%
BOS Drew
Rasmussen
7.5 3.56 15.0% 7.0% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4%
DET Triston
McKenzie
8.5 3.44 13.5% 6.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
CIN Nestor
Cortes
8.0 3.42 13.2% 5.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
PIT Braxton
Garrett
7.5 3.30 11.7% 5.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
MIL Carlos
Rodon
6.0 3.05 8.9% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
SF Corbin
Burnes
6.0 2.95 7.9% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Carlos
Rodon
MIL 6.9 91.2% 81.6% 68.4% 53.2% 38.3% 25.5% 15.8%
Corbin
Burnes
SF 6.8 90.7% 80.7% 67.2% 51.9% 37.0% 24.4% 14.9%
Kevin
Gausman
KC 6.3 87.3% 75.2% 60.0% 44.0% 29.7% 18.4% 10.5%
Nestor
Cortes
CIN 6.1 85.8% 72.9% 57.2% 41.1% 27.1% 16.4% 9.2%
Blake
Snell
COL 6.0 84.8% 71.4% 55.3% 39.2% 25.5% 15.2% 8.3%
Framber
Valdez
LAA 5.8 83.3% 69.2% 52.7% 36.6% 23.3% 13.6% 7.3%
Carlos
Carrasco
CHC 5.8 82.8% 68.4% 51.8% 35.8% 22.6% 13.1% 7.0%
Luis
Castillo
NYY 5.6 81.0% 65.9% 49.0% 33.1% 20.4% 11.5% 6.0%
Kyle
Wright
WSH 5.6 80.4% 65.0% 48.0% 32.2% 19.7% 11.0% 5.6%
Triston
McKenzie
DET 5.3 76.8% 60.2% 42.8% 27.5% 16.1% 8.6% 4.2%
Martin
Perez
SEA 5.2 75.9% 59.1% 41.6% 26.5% 15.3% 8.0% 3.9%
Sonny
Gray
CHW 5.1 75.0% 57.9% 40.3% 25.4% 14.5% 7.6% 3.6%
Tyler
Anderson
STL 5.0 73.9% 56.5% 38.9% 24.2% 13.7% 7.0% 3.3%
Kutter
Crawford
TB 4.9 71.8% 53.8% 36.3% 22.0% 12.1% 6.1% 2.8%
Johnny
Cueto
MIN 4.8 70.3% 52.0% 34.6% 20.6% 11.1% 5.5% 2.5%
Braxton
Garrett
PIT 4.5 65.8% 46.8% 29.7% 16.9% 8.7% 4.0% 1.7%
Kyle
Freeland
SD 4.4 64.1% 44.9% 28.0% 15.6% 7.9% 3.6% 1.5%
Anibal
Sanchez
ATL 4.3 62.3% 43.0% 26.3% 14.4% 7.1% 3.2% 1.3%
Keegan
Thompson
NYM 4.2 60.3% 40.8% 24.5% 13.1% 6.3% 2.8% 1.1%
Reid
Detmers
HOU 4.1 58.6% 39.1% 23.1% 12.1% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0%
Drew
Rasmussen
BOS 4.1 57.6% 38.1% 22.3% 11.6% 5.4% 2.3% 0.9%
Elvin
Rodriguez
CLE 3.9 54.3% 34.8% 19.6% 9.9% 4.4% 1.8% 0.7%
Marco
Gonzales
TEX 3.8 52.9% 33.4% 18.6% 9.2% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6%
Zach
Thompson
MIA 3.7 49.7% 30.5% 16.4% 7.8% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5%
Dakota
Hudson
LAD 3.6 48.3% 29.2% 15.5% 7.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4%
Jackson
Kowar
TOR 2.9 33.3% 17.0% 7.5% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Jose
Altuve
HOU Yes 103 Reid
Detmers
27.5% +265
Matt
Olson
ATL Yes 104 Anibal
Sanchez
25.7% +290
Austin
Riley
ATL No 106 Anibal
Sanchez
24.7% +305
Pete
Alonso
NYM No 103 Keegan
Thompson
24.7% +305
Anthony
Rizzo
NYY Yes 109 Luis
Castillo
24.6% +305
Alex
Bregman
HOU Yes 103 Reid
Detmers
24.4% +310
Dansby
Swanson
ATL No 106 Anibal
Sanchez
24.2% +310
Manny
Machado
SD Yes 108 Kyle
Freeland
24.1% +315
Luke
Voit
SD Yes 108 Kyle
Freeland
23.6% +325
Jeremy
Pena
HOU Yes 103 Reid
Detmers
23.4% +330
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATL No 106 Anibal
Sanchez
23.3% +330
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYY No 103 Luis
Castillo
22.3% +350
Chas
McCormick
HOU Yes 103 Reid
Detmers
22.3% +350
Ronald
Acuna
ATL No 106 Anibal
Sanchez
22.3% +350
Wilmer
Flores
SF No 90 Corbin
Burnes
22.1% +350
Byron
Buxton
MIN No 98 Johnny
Cueto
22.1% +355
Patrick
Wisdom
CHC No 103 Carlos
Carrasco
21.8% +360
Willy
Adames
MIL Yes 90 Carlos
Rodon
21.8% +360
Rafael
Devers
BOS Yes 92 Drew
Rasmussen
21.4% +365
Teoscar
Hernandez
TOR No 101 Jackson
Kowar
21.0% +375
Danny
Jansen
TOR No 101 Jackson
Kowar
21.0% +375
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TOR No 101 Jackson
Kowar
21.0% +375
Isaac
Paredes
TB No 94 Kutter
Crawford
20.9% +380
Willson
Contreras
CHC No 103 Carlos
Carrasco
20.8% +380
Kyle
Tucker
HOU No 108 Reid
Detmers
20.6% +385
Jonah
Heim
TEX Yes 95 Marco
Gonzales
20.6% +385
Jorge
Polanco
MIN Yes 99 Johnny
Cueto
20.5% +385
Brandon
Drury
CIN Yes 103 Nestor
Cortes
20.1% +400
J.D.
Martinez
BOS No 94 Drew
Rasmussen
19.9% +400
C.J.
Cron
COL Yes 108 Blake
Snell
19.5% +410
Marcell
Ozuna
ATL No 106 Anibal
Sanchez
19.5% +415
Mookie
Betts
LAD No 91 Dakota
Hudson
19.5% +415
Josh
Naylor
CLE Yes 103 Elvin
Rodriguez
19.4% +415
Lourdes
Gurriel
TOR No 101 Jackson
Kowar
19.4% +415
Joey
Votto
CIN No 109 Nestor
Cortes
19.3% +420
Javier
Baez
DET No 99 Triston
McKenzie
19.1% +425
Adolis
Garcia
TEX Yes 95 Marco
Gonzales
18.9% +430
George
Springer
TOR No 101 Jackson
Kowar
18.8% +430
Bo
Bichette
TOR No 101 Jackson
Kowar
18.8% +430
Shohei
Ohtani
LAA No 108 Framber
Valdez
18.1% +455
Joey
Gallo
NYY Yes 109 Luis
Castillo
17.8% +465
Josh
Bell
WSH Yes 104 Kyle
Wright
17.8% +465
Michael
Harris II
ATL Yes 104 Anibal
Sanchez
17.8% +465
Trea
Turner
LAD No 91 Dakota
Hudson
17.4% +475
Kole
Calhoun
TEX No 101 Marco
Gonzales
17.2% +480
Gavin
Sheets
CHW Yes 99 Sonny
Gray
17.1% +485
Jesus
Sanchez
MIA Yes 92 Zach
Thompson
16.7% +500
Gleyber
Torres
NYY No 103 Luis
Castillo
16.7% +500
Ian
Happ
CHC Yes 96 Carlos
Carrasco
16.7% +500
Jose
Abreu
CHW No 98 Sonny
Gray
16.6% +500
Juan
Soto
WSH Yes 104 Kyle
Wright
16.5% +505
Tommy
Pham
CIN Yes 103 Nestor
Cortes
16.2% +515
Corey
Seager
TEX No 101 Marco
Gonzales
16.1% +520
Brandon
Nimmo
NYM Yes 96 Keegan
Thompson
16.1% +525
Paul
Goldschmidt
STL Yes 91 Tyler
Anderson
15.9% +530
Nolan
Arenado
STL Yes 91 Tyler
Anderson
15.9% +530
Cal
Raleigh
SEA Yes 95 Martin
Perez
15.9% +530
Jose
Ramirez
CLE Yes 103 Elvin
Rodriguez
15.7% +540
Will
Smith
LAD No 91 Dakota
Hudson
15.7% +540
Cody
Bellinger
LAD Yes 97 Dakota
Hudson
15.6% +540
Trevor
Story
BOS No 94 Drew
Rasmussen
15.5% +545
Julio
Rodriguez
SEA Yes 95 Martin
Perez
15.2% +560
Luis
Urias
MIL Yes 90 Carlos
Rodon
15.2% +560
Matt
Chapman
TOR No 101 Jackson
Kowar
15.1% +560
Jesus
Aguilar
MIA No 90 Zach
Thompson
15.0% +570
Franmil
Reyes
CLE No 99 Elvin
Rodriguez
14.9% +570
Randy
Arozarena
TB No 94 Kutter
Crawford
14.9% +570
Jake
Cronenworth
SD No 109 Kyle
Freeland
14.8% +575
MJ
Melendez
KC Yes 94 Kevin
Gausman
14.5% +585
Tucker
Barnhart
DET Yes 103 Triston
McKenzie
14.3% +600
Ji-Man
Choi
TB Yes 92 Kutter
Crawford
14.3% +600
Freddie
Freeman
LAD Yes 97 Dakota
Hudson
14.3% +600
Joc
Pederson
SF Yes 87 Corbin
Burnes
14.2% +600
Mike
Yastrzemski
SF Yes 87 Corbin
Burnes
14.2% +600
Francisco
Lindor
NYM Yes 96 Keegan
Thompson
14.2% +605
Gio
Urshela
MIN No 98 Johnny
Cueto
14.1% +610
Jorge
Alfaro
SD Yes 108 Kyle
Freeland
13.9% +620
Ty
France
SEA Yes 95 Martin
Perez
13.9% +620
Max
Muncy
LAD Yes 97 Dakota
Hudson
13.6% +635
Carlos
Correa
MIN No 98 Johnny
Cueto
13.5% +645
Juan
Yepez
STL Yes 91 Tyler
Anderson
13.4% +650
Mike
Trout
LAA Yes 103 Framber
Valdez
13.4% +650
Dan
Vogelbach
PIT No 92 Braxton
Garrett
13.4% +650
Seiya
Suzuki
CHC No 103 Carlos
Carrasco
13.3% +650
Michael
Chavis
PIT Yes 90 Braxton
Garrett
13.3% +655
Randal
Grichuk
COL Yes 108 Blake
Snell
13.1% +660
Brandon
Belt
SF Yes 87 Corbin
Burnes
13.0% +665
Nelson
Cruz
WSH No 106 Kyle
Wright
12.9% +675
Spencer
Torkelson
DET No 99 Triston
McKenzie
12.9% +675
Charlie
Blackmon
COL No 109 Blake
Snell
12.9% +675
Eduardo
Escobar
NYM Yes 96 Keegan
Thompson
12.8% +680
Eloy
Jimenez
CHW No 98 Sonny
Gray
12.8% +680
Justin
Turner
LAD No 91 Dakota
Hudson
12.6% +690
Starling
Marte
NYM No 103 Keegan
Thompson
12.6% +690
David
Bote
CHC No 103 Carlos
Carrasco
12.6% +690
Tyler
Stephenson
CIN Yes 103 Nestor
Cortes
12.6% +695
Hunter
Renfroe
MIL Yes 90 Carlos
Rodon
12.6% +695
Diego
Castillo
PIT Yes 90 Braxton
Garrett
12.6% +695
Hunter
Dozier
KC No 101 Kevin
Gausman
12.4% +705
Jared
Walsh
LAA No 108 Framber
Valdez
12.1% +725
Andres
Gimenez
CLE Yes 103 Elvin
Rodriguez
12.1% +725
Joey
Bart
SF No 90 Corbin
Burnes
11.9% +740
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOU Yes 103 Reid
Detmers
11.8% +745
Taylor
Ward
LAA Yes 103 Framber
Valdez
11.8% +745
Marcus
Semien
TEX Yes 95 Marco
Gonzales
11.8% +750
Eugenio
Suarez
SEA Yes 95 Martin
Perez
11.8% +750
Max
Kepler
MIN Yes 99 Johnny
Cueto
11.7% +750
Bobby
Witt Jr.
KC No 101 Kevin
Gausman
11.7% +755
Andrew
McCutchen
MIL Yes 90 Carlos
Rodon
11.2% +790
Josh
Donaldson
NYY No 103 Luis
Castillo
11.2% +795
Jose
Trevino
NYY No 103 Luis
Castillo
11.2% +795
Rowdy
Tellez
MIL No 87 Carlos
Rodon
11.2% +795
Martin
Maldonado
HOU Yes 103 Reid
Detmers
11.0% +805
Max
Stassi
LAA Yes 103 Framber
Valdez
11.0% +805
Aledmys
Diaz
HOU Yes 103 Reid
Detmers
11.0% +805
Leody
Taveras
TEX Yes 95 Marco
Gonzales
11.0% +805
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEX No 101 Marco
Gonzales
10.8% +825
Jake
Lamb
LAD Yes 97 Dakota
Hudson
10.8% +825
Kevin
Newman
PIT Yes 90 Braxton
Garrett
10.5% +850
DJ
LeMahieu
NYY No 103 Luis
Castillo
10.4% +860
Carlos
Santana
SEA Yes 95 Martin
Perez
10.3% +875
Edward
Olivares
KC No 101 Kevin
Gausman
10.2% +880
Santiago
Espinal
TOR No 101 Jackson
Kowar
10.2% +880
Alejandro
Kirk
TOR No 101 Jackson
Kowar
10.2% +880
Kyle
Farmer
CIN Yes 103 Nestor
Cortes
10.2% +880
Tim
Anderson
CHW No 98 Sonny
Gray
10.0% +905
Austin
Nola
SD Yes 108 Kyle
Freeland
9.8% +920
Nico
Hoerner
CHC No 103 Carlos
Carrasco
9.6% +940
Joey
Wendle
MIA Yes 92 Zach
Thompson
9.6% +940
Xander
Bogaerts
BOS No 94 Drew
Rasmussen
9.6% +945
Ryan
McMahon
COL No 109 Blake
Snell
9.5% +950
Sam
Huff
TEX Yes 95 Marco
Gonzales
9.5% +950
Alex
Kirilloff
MIN Yes 99 Johnny
Cueto
9.5% +955
Seby
Zavala
CHW No 98 Sonny
Gray
9.2% +985
Albert
Pujols
STL Yes 91 Tyler
Anderson
9.1% +995
LaMonte
Wade Jr
SF Yes 87 Corbin
Burnes
9.1% +995
Harold
Castro
DET Yes 103 Triston
McKenzie
9.0% +1010
Elias
Diaz
COL Yes 108 Blake
Snell
8.9% +1025
Ha-Seong
Kim
SD Yes 108 Kyle
Freeland
8.9% +1025
Jose
Azocar
SD Yes 108 Kyle
Freeland
8.9% +1025
Taylor
Walls
TB Yes 92 Kutter
Crawford
8.9% +1025
Tomas
Nido
NYM No 103 Keegan
Thompson
8.8% +1030
Isiah
Kiner-Falefa
NYY No 103 Luis
Castillo
8.8% +1030
Christopher
Morel
CHC No 103 Carlos
Carrasco
8.8% +1030
Nick
Gordon
MIN Yes 99 Johnny
Cueto
8.7% +1050
Garrett
Cooper
MIA No 90 Zach
Thompson
8.5% +1070
Luis
Robert
CHW No 98 Sonny
Gray
8.5% +1085
Andrew
Vaughn
CHW No 98 Sonny
Gray
8.5% +1085
Brandon
Crawford
SF Yes 87 Corbin
Burnes
8.4% +1085
Robinson
Cano
ATL Yes 104 Anibal
Sanchez
8.3% +1110
Cesar
Hernandez
WSH Yes 104 Kyle
Wright
8.3% +1110
Eddie
Rosario
ATL Yes 104 Anibal
Sanchez
8.3% +1110
Maikel
Franco
WSH No 106 Kyle
Wright
8.2% +1115
Nolan
Jones
CLE Yes 103 Elvin
Rodriguez
8.2% +1120
Francisco
Mejia
TB Yes 92 Kutter
Crawford
8.1% +1125
Jose
Iglesias
COL Yes 108 Blake
Snell
8.0% +1150
Brendan
Rodgers
COL Yes 108 Blake
Snell
8.0% +1150
Dylan
Moore
SEA Yes 95 Martin
Perez
7.9% +1160
Yoan
Moncada
CHW Yes 99 Sonny
Gray
7.9% +1165
Christian
Yelich
MIL No 87 Carlos
Rodon
7.8% +1190
Austin
Hedges
CLE No 99 Elvin
Rodriguez
7.7% +1190
Rafael
Ortega
CHC Yes 96 Carlos
Carrasco
7.7% +1200
Dominic
Smith
NYM Yes 96 Keegan
Thompson
7.7% +1200
Ryan
Jeffers
MIN No 98 Johnny
Cueto
7.7% +1205
Luis
Rengifo
LAA Yes 103 Framber
Valdez
7.7% +1205
Jo
Adell
LAA Yes 103 Framber
Valdez
7.7% +1205
Stuart
Fairchild
CIN Yes 103 Nestor
Cortes
7.7% +1205
Jake
Meyers
HOU Yes 103 Reid
Detmers
7.7% +1205
Tommy
Edman
STL Yes 91 Tyler
Anderson
7.6% +1210
Jesse
Winker
SEA No 101 Martin
Perez
7.5% +1230
Brett
Phillips
TB Yes 92 Kutter
Crawford
7.4% +1250
Harold
Ramirez
TB No 94 Kutter
Crawford
7.4% +1255
Jeimer
Candelario
DET Yes 103 Triston
McKenzie
7.4% +1255
Mark
Canha
NYM No 103 Keegan
Thompson
7.2% +1285
Charlie
Culberson
TEX Yes 95 Marco
Gonzales
7.1% +1305
Luis
Arraez
MIN Yes 99 Johnny
Cueto
7.1% +1310
Amed
Rosario
CLE No 99 Elvin
Rodriguez
7.0% +1340
Ben
Gamel
PIT No 92 Braxton
Garrett
6.9% +1350
Donovan
Solano
CIN Yes 103 Nestor
Cortes
6.8% +1375
Nick
Senzel
CIN Yes 103 Nestor
Cortes
6.8% +1375
Jake
Marisnick
PIT Yes 90 Braxton
Garrett
6.8% +1375
Franchy
Cordero
BOS Yes 92 Drew
Rasmussen
6.6% +1405
Josh
Lowe
TB Yes 92 Kutter
Crawford
6.6% +1405
Yandy
Diaz
TB No 94 Kutter
Crawford
6.6% +1410
Kolten
Wong
MIL No 87 Carlos
Rodon
6.6% +1425
Lane
Thomas
WSH No 106 Kyle
Wright
6.5% +1430
Riley
Greene
DET Yes 103 Triston
McKenzie
6.5% +1435
David
Villar
SF No 90 Corbin
Burnes
6.4% +1470