MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 7/21/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP |
O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | Carlos Rodon |
8.0 | 4.28 | 26.0% | 14.2% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| HOU | Gerrit Cole |
8.0 | 4.10 | 23.1% | 12.1% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| DET | Zach Logue |
7.5 | 4.03 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| NYY | Cristian Javier |
8.0 | 3.90 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| OAK | Garrett Hill |
7.0 | 3.83 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| SF | Mitch White |
8.0 | 3.72 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| MIA | Jon Gray |
7.0 | 3.53 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| OAK | Tarik Skubal |
7.5 | 3.47 | 13.8% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| TEX | Pablo Lopez |
7.0 | 3.47 | 13.8% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| DET | Frankie Montas |
7.0 | 3.17 | 10.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole |
HOU | 7.4 | 93.5% | 85.7% | 74.2% | 60.1% | 45.3% | 31.8% | 20.7% |
| Carlos Rodon |
LAD | 6.8 | 90.6% | 80.6% | 67.0% | 51.7% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 14.8% |
| Jon Gray |
MIA | 6.0 | 84.9% | 71.5% | 55.4% | 39.4% | 25.6% | 15.3% | 8.4% |
| Frankie Montas |
DET | 5.4 | 78.1% | 61.9% | 44.5% | 29.1% | 17.2% | 9.3% | 4.6% |
| Jameson Taillon |
HOU | 4.5 | 65.1% | 46.0% | 29.0% | 16.4% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Pablo Lopez |
TEX | 5.4 | 78.3% | 62.2% | 44.9% | 29.4% | 17.5% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
| Cristian Javier |
NYY | 6.5 | 89.0% | 78.0% | 63.5% | 47.8% | 33.2% | 21.2% | 12.5% |
| Tarik Skubal |
OAK | 4.9 | 72.5% | 54.7% | 37.2% | 22.8% | 12.6% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| Mitch White |
SF | 5.8 | 82.9% | 68.6% | 52.0% | 36.0% | 22.8% | 13.2% | 7.0% |
| Luis Garcia |
NYY | 5.6 | 81.2% | 66.1% | 49.2% | 33.3% | 20.6% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
| Zach Logue |
DET | 4.7 | 68.2% | 49.6% | 32.3% | 18.9% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Garrett Hill |
OAK | 3.5 | 47.2% | 28.2% | 14.8% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge |
NYY | No | 101 | Luis Garcia |
23.9% | +320 |
| Anthony Rizzo |
NYY | Yes | 102 | Cristian Javier |
23.5% | +325 |
| Joc Pederson |
SF | Yes | 102 | Mitch White |
23.5% | +325 |
| Jose Altuve |
HOU | No | 101 | Jameson Taillon |
23.0% | +335 |
| Giancarlo Stanton |
NYY | No | 101 | Luis Garcia |
23.0% | +335 |
| Aaron Judge |
NYY | No | 101 | Cristian Javier |
22.0% | +355 |
| Giancarlo Stanton |
NYY | No | 101 | Cristian Javier |
21.5% | +365 |
| Kyle Tucker |
HOU | Yes | 102 | Gerrit Cole |
19.9% | +405 |
| Eric Haase |
DET | Yes | 94 | Zach Logue |
19.9% | +405 |
| Wilmer Flores |
SF | No | 107 | Mitch White |
19.6% | +410 |
| Corey Seager |
TEX | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez |
19.4% | +415 |
| Anthony Rizzo |
NYY | Yes | 102 | Luis Garcia |
19.3% | +420 |
| Matt Carpenter |
NYY | Yes | 102 | Luis Garcia |
19.3% | +420 |
| Matt Carpenter |
NYY | Yes | 102 | Cristian Javier |
19.3% | +420 |
| Chas McCormick |
HOU | No | 101 | Jameson Taillon |
18.8% | +430 |
| Ramon Laureano |
OAK | Yes | 94 | Tarik Skubal |
18.7% | +435 |
| Nathaniel Lowe |
TEX | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez |
18.4% | +445 |
| Jose Altuve |
HOU | No | 101 | Gerrit Cole |
18.2% | +450 |
| Alex Bregman |
HOU | No | 101 | Jameson Taillon |
17.6% | +465 |
| Javier Baez |
DET | Yes | 94 | Zach Logue |
17.0% | +490 |
| Sean Murphy |
OAK | No | 94 | Garrett Hill |
16.7% | +500 |
| Evan Longoria |
SF | No | 107 | Mitch White |
16.5% | +505 |
| Joey Bart |
SF | No | 107 | Mitch White |
16.5% | +505 |
| Chas McCormick |
HOU | No | 101 | Gerrit Cole |
15.8% | +535 |
| Sean Murphy |
OAK | Yes | 94 | Tarik Skubal |
15.7% | +535 |
| Jorge Soler |
MIA | No | 90 | Jon Gray |
15.5% | +545 |
| Ramon Laureano |
OAK | No | 94 | Garrett Hill |
15.5% | +545 |
| Mookie Betts |
LAD | Yes | 107 | Carlos Rodon |
15.3% | +555 |
| Martin Maldonado |
HOU | No | 101 | Jameson Taillon |
15.1% | +560 |
| Freddie Freeman |
LAD | No | 102 | Carlos Rodon |
15.1% | +560 |
| Adolis Garcia |
TEX | No | 90 | Pablo Lopez |
15.0% | +570 |
| Kyle Tucker |
HOU | Yes | 102 | Jameson Taillon |
14.9% | +570 |
| Mike Yastrzemski |
SF | Yes | 102 | Mitch White |
14.9% | +570 |
| Jeremy Pena |
HOU | No | 101 | Jameson Taillon |
14.5% | +590 |
| Chad Pinder |
OAK | Yes | 94 | Tarik Skubal |
14.4% | +595 |
| Aledmys Diaz |
HOU | No | 101 | Jameson Taillon |
13.8% | +625 |
| Jesus Sanchez |
MIA | Yes | 92 | Jon Gray |
13.7% | +630 |
| Chad Pinder |
OAK | No | 94 | Garrett Hill |
13.6% | +635 |
| Josh Donaldson |
NYY | No | 101 | Luis Garcia |
13.1% | +660 |
| Jose Trevino |
NYY | No | 101 | Luis Garcia |
13.1% | +660 |
| Trea Turner |
LAD | Yes | 107 | Carlos Rodon |
13.0% | +670 |
| Marcus Semien |
TEX | No | 90 | Pablo Lopez |
12.5% | +700 |
| Garrett Cooper |
MIA | No | 90 | Jon Gray |
12.5% | +700 |
| Jeimer Candelario |
DET | Yes | 94 | Zach Logue |
12.4% | +710 |
| Stephen Vogt |
OAK | Yes | 92 | Garrett Hill |
12.4% | +710 |
| DJ LeMahieu |
NYY | No | 101 | Cristian Javier |
11.7% | +755 |
| Alex Bregman |
HOU | No | 101 | Gerrit Cole |
11.7% | +755 |
| Kole Calhoun |
TEX | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez |
11.7% | +755 |
| Austin Slater |
SF | No | 107 | Mitch White |
11.5% | +765 |
| Justin Turner |
LAD | Yes | 107 | Carlos Rodon |
11.4% | +775 |
| Aaron Hicks |
NYY | Yes | 102 | Cristian Javier |
11.3% | +785 |
| Jesus Aguilar |
MIA | No | 90 | Jon Gray |
11.2% | +790 |
| Brad Miller |
TEX | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez |
11.0% | +810 |
| Leody Taveras |
TEX | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez |
11.0% | +810 |
| Javier Baez |
DET | No | 94 | Frankie Montas |
11.0% | +810 |
| Jeremy Pena |
HOU | No | 101 | Gerrit Cole |
11.0% | +810 |
| Aaron Hicks |
NYY | Yes | 102 | Luis Garcia |
10.5% | +850 |
| Tucker Barnhart |
DET | Yes | 92 | Frankie Montas |
10.3% | +870 |
| Riley Greene |
DET | Yes | 92 | Frankie Montas |
9.6% | +940 |
| DJ LeMahieu |
NYY | No | 101 | Luis Garcia |
9.5% | +955 |
| Josh Donaldson |
NYY | No | 101 | Cristian Javier |
9.5% | +955 |
| Aledmys Diaz |
HOU | No | 101 | Gerrit Cole |
9.5% | +955 |
| Yulieski Gurriel |
HOU | No | 101 | Gerrit Cole |
9.5% | +955 |
| Seth Brown |
OAK | Yes | 92 | Garrett Hill |
8.9% | +1025 |
| Will Smith |
LAD | Yes | 107 | Carlos Rodon |
8.8% | +1030 |
| Skye Bolt |
OAK | Yes | 94 | Tarik Skubal |
8.6% | +1055 |
| Brian Anderson |
MIA | No | 90 | Jon Gray |
8.5% | +1070 |
| Thairo Estrada |
SF | No | 107 | Mitch White |
8.3% | +1100 |
| Yermin Mercedes |
SF | No | 107 | Mitch White |
8.3% | +1100 |
| Cody Bellinger |
LAD | No | 102 | Carlos Rodon |
8.3% | +1105 |
| Jeimer Candelario |
DET | Yes | 92 | Frankie Montas |
8.1% | +1125 |
| Jake Meyers |
HOU | No | 101 | Jameson Taillon |
7.9% | +1165 |
| Elvis Andrus |
OAK | Yes | 94 | Tarik Skubal |
7.9% | +1175 |
| Jonathan Schoop |
DET | Yes | 94 | Zach Logue |
7.9% | +1175 |
| Willi Castro |
DET | Yes | 94 | Zach Logue |
7.9% | +1175 |
| Riley Greene |
DET | No | 92 | Zach Logue |
7.5% | +1225 |
| Skye Bolt |
OAK | Yes | 92 | Garrett Hill |
7.4% | +1250 |
| Nick Fortes |
MIA | No | 90 | Jon Gray |
7.1% | +1310 |
| Yulieski Gurriel |
HOU | No | 101 | Jameson Taillon |
7.1% | +1310 |
| Kyle Higashioka |
NYY | No | 101 | Cristian Javier |
7.1% | +1310 |
| Trayce Thompson |
LAD | Yes | 107 | Carlos Rodon |
7.0% | +1325 |
| Max Muncy |
LAD | No | 102 | Carlos Rodon |
6.9% | +1350 |
| Joey Wendle |
MIA | Yes | 92 | Jon Gray |
6.6% | +1405 |
| Miguel Cabrera |
DET | Yes | 94 | Zach Logue |
6.2% | +1505 |
| Robbie Grossman |
DET | Yes | 94 | Zach Logue |
6.2% | +1505 |
