3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 7/22/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Nick Castellanos to Hit a Home Run (+370)
Nick Castellanos has a sweet matchup for his homer prop.
Castellanos is taking on lefty Justin Steele. Steele is striking out just 19.0% of righty bats this season, and he gave up a .358 wOBA to them a year ago.
While his debut season with the Philadelphia Phillies isn't going well (.296 wOBA), Castellanos has a solid track record of hammering left-handers, including mashing his way to a .393 wOBA in the split last season with a 45.5% hard-hit rate and 38.4% fly-ball rate.
This +370 price is enticing, and so is the +550 number on Castellanos to dong and Philly to win. Our model gives the Phils a 62.7% chance to get the W.
Marcus Semien to Hit a Home Run (+470)
Marcus Semien started slowly this season, but something he's done well from the jump in 2022 is hit southpaws.
In 107 plate appearances in the split this campaign, Semien sports a .349 wOBA and 43.8% fly-ball rate. It's a continuation of his work against lefties from 2021, when he registered a 49.3% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage. He had a 45.7% fly-ball rate in the split back in 2020, too, so Semien has no trouble lifting the ball versus left-handers.
He'll see Cole Irvin tonight. Irvin is permitting a 42.1% fly-ball rate overall -- including a 451% clip to righties -- while punching out only 16.1% of hitters.
I like Semien's dinger prop, and I also like his props for 1+ RBI (+175) and 2+ RBI (+700).
Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Max Scherzer got up to 102 pitches in his last start, and with Scherzer fully stretched out, the over on 7.5 strikeouts is awfully appealing -- even against a San Diego Padres offense that does a good job limiting punchouts.
In three starts since coming off the IL, Scherzer's strikeout totals are 11, 9 and 11. He's done that while building up his pitch count from 79 in his first start to 102 in the most recent one. The dude is an absolute monster, and he's basically shown no signs of rust outside of the pitch count in his first start, which is no longer a concern.
As I mentioned, the Padres are a pedestrian matchup when it comes to strikeouts as they have just the 18th-highest strikeout rate (21.9%) against righties. I'm not sure how much that matters when facing a dude like Scherzer.
Not only is the over enticing at this line of 7.5, I don't mind the alternate line of 9+ strikeouts at a +172 price.
