3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Wednesday 7/27/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox ($2,500)
Jarren Duran is projected to hit leadoff tonight for the Boston Red Sox, the team with the second-highest implied total (4.43).
That alone makes him an enticing value play, but there's more to like.
Duran will be up against Cal Quantrill. In 2022, Quantrill is posting career-worst clips in both SIERA (4.78) and strikeout rate (15.1%). Lefties have tagged him for a 39.1% fly-ball rate and .324 wOBA despite a lowly .273 BABIP.
With J.D. Martinez returning last night, there will be a little more pop behind Duran in Boston's lineup, and Duran has been much better against righties, registering a .336 wOBA and 37.9% fly-ball rate in the split.
We project Duran for 11.8 FanDuel points and rate him as the second-best point-per-dollar stick among those with a salary of at least $2,500. Alex Verdugo ($2,400) and Franchy Cordero ($2,200) are two other low-salary options from the Red Sox.
Yandy Diaz, 1B/3B, Rays ($2,900)
Righty Tyler Wells is showing heavy reverse splits.
Against righties this season, Wells owns a 13.7% strikeout rate while surrendering a .329 wOBA and 49.0% fly-ball rate. That's led to him allowing 1.49 dingers per nine in the split.
Enter Yandy Diaz, who is an economical way to get exposure to a Tampa Bay Rays offense that offers a 4.08 implied total.
Diaz sports a .360 wOBA overall, including a .342 mark in righty-righty matchups. Our model has him scoring 12.4 FanDuel points on Wednesday night.
Luis Guillorme, 2B/3B/SS, Mets ($2,200)
I'm into the New York Mets today as a possible under-the-radar stack versus Domingo German.
Despite the Mets' 3.92 implied total, I think they can have a lot of success in this matchup. German was rocked in his first start off the IL, giving up five earned runs and two jacks in three innings, and he wasn't dominant in his rehab stints, fanning just 11 hitters over 17 1/3 frames across Double-A and Triple-A.
Luis Guillorme has mashed his way to a .351 wOBA against right-handers this year. He is a low-salary way to get in on the Mets, and his multi-position eligibility is a nice feather in his cap.
