MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 8/4/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
PHIPaolo
Espino
9.05.3244.0%28.6%16.9%9.1%4.5%
SDKyle
Freeland
8.04.9036.6%22.3%12.3%6.2%2.8%
MILZach
Thompson
8.04.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
BOSKris
Bubic
9.04.7534.0%20.2%10.9%5.3%2.4%
LADJakob
Junis
8.04.6031.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
HOUZach
Plesac
8.04.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
TBDrew
Hutchison
8.04.5129.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
CHWCole
Ragans
8.54.4528.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
LAAPaul
Blackburn
8.54.3927.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
STLMarcus
Stroman
8.04.2625.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
KCNick
Pivetta
9.04.2525.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
NYMKyle
Wright
8.04.1123.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
OAKJanson
Junk
8.54.1123.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
STLMarcus
Stroman
7.54.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
TORSonny
Gray
8.04.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
TEXJohnny
Cueto
8.54.0522.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
MINAlek
Manoah
8.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
ATLCarlos
Carrasco
8.03.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
CHCJose
Quintana
8.03.7417.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
WSHNoah
Syndergaard
9.03.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
DETJeffrey
Springs
8.03.4914.1%6.5%2.6%1.0%0.3%
CLEJustin
Verlander
8.03.4814.0%6.4%2.6%1.0%0.3%
CHCMiles
Mikolas
7.53.4012.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
SFClayton
Kershaw
8.03.4012.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
PITBrandon
Woodruff
8.03.2110.7%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
COLJoe
Musgrove
8.03.109.4%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Joe
Musgrove
COL7.192.5%83.9%71.7%57.1%42.2%28.9%18.4%
Brandon
Woodruff
PIT6.689.7%79.1%65.0%49.4%34.6%22.4%13.4%
Justin
Verlander
CLE6.286.3%73.7%58.1%42.1%28.0%17.1%9.6%
Clayton
Kershaw
SF6.085.0%71.6%55.6%39.5%25.7%15.4%8.5%
Kyle
Wright
NYM5.782.3%67.7%51.0%35.0%22.0%12.6%6.7%
Carlos
Carrasco
ATL5.781.5%66.5%49.7%33.8%20.9%11.9%6.2%
Alek
Manoah
MIN5.681.4%66.4%49.5%33.6%20.8%11.8%6.1%
Nick
Pivetta
KC5.579.4%63.6%46.4%30.8%18.6%10.2%5.2%
Noah
Syndergaard
WSH5.377.2%60.7%43.3%28.0%16.4%8.8%4.3%
Miles
Mikolas
CHC5.377.1%60.6%43.1%27.8%16.3%8.7%4.3%
Jose
Quintana
CHC5.073.6%56.1%38.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
Sonny
Gray
TOR4.768.7%50.2%32.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
Jeffrey
Springs
DET4.566.1%47.2%30.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
Zach
Plesac
HOU4.565.4%46.4%29.4%16.6%8.5%3.9%1.7%
Kyle
Freeland
SD4.564.9%45.8%28.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
Kris
Bubic
BOS4.464.1%44.9%28.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
Jakob
Junis
LAD4.362.5%43.1%26.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
Cole
Ragans
CHW4.362.3%43.0%26.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
Marcus
Stroman
STL4.361.9%42.6%26.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Johnny
Cueto
TEX4.260.8%41.4%25.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
Marcus
Stroman
STL4.260.5%41.0%24.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
Paul
Blackburn
LAA3.751.4%32.1%17.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
Janson
Junk
OAK3.749.5%30.3%16.3%7.7%3.3%1.3%0.4%
Zach
Thompson
MIL3.444.2%25.6%12.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
Drew
Hutchison
TB3.443.7%25.2%12.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
Paolo
Espino
PHI3.342.4%24.1%12.0%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Paolo
Espino
28.8%+250
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Paul
Blackburn
24.4%+310
Seth
Brown
OAKYes108Janson
Junk
22.4%+345
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo99Zach
Plesac
22.2%+350
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo98Sonny
Gray
22.1%+355
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo92Zach
Thompson
22.0%+355
Mookie
Betts
LADNo90Jakob
Junis
21.7%+360
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes103Zach
Plesac
21.7%+360
Byron
Buxton
MINNo98Alek
Manoah
21.6%+365
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101Johnny
Cueto
21.4%+370
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Paolo
Espino
21.2%+370
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo92Zach
Thompson
20.6%+385
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95Johnny
Cueto
20.6%+385
Rafael
Devers
BOSNo92Kris
Bubic
20.5%+390
Aledmys
Diaz
HOUNo99Zach
Plesac
20.2%+395
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSYes92Kris
Bubic
20.1%+400
C.J.
Cron
COLNo96Joe
Musgrove
19.7%+405
Manny
Machado
SDYes96Kyle
Freeland
19.6%+410
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo98Sonny
Gray
19.5%+415
Javier
Baez
DETYes99Jeffrey
Springs
19.5%+415
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Marcus
Stroman
19.5%+415
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Marcus
Stroman
19.5%+415
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Marcus
Stroman
19.5%+415
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Marcus
Stroman
19.5%+415
Matt
Olson
ATLYes95Carlos
Carrasco
19.4%+415
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Brandon
Woodruff
19.4%+415
Willy
Adames
MILNo92Zach
Thompson
19.1%+425
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes108Paul
Blackburn
18.9%+430
Darick
Hall
PHIYes106Paolo
Espino
18.6%+435
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Nick
Pivetta
18.6%+440
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98Alek
Manoah
18.4%+445
Trea
Turner
LADNo90Jakob
Junis
18.3%+445
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Nick
Pivetta
18.0%+455
Josh
Bell
SDYes96Kyle
Freeland
17.9%+460
George
Springer
TORNo98Sonny
Gray
17.8%+460
Jose
Abreu
CHWYes95Cole
Ragans
17.7%+465
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes95Zach
Thompson
17.7%+465
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Paolo
Espino
17.6%+470
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97Marcus
Stroman
17.4%+475
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo99Zach
Plesac
17.4%+475
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Johnny
Cueto
17.4%+475
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo103Janson
Junk
17.3%+480
Willson
Contreras
CHCYes91Jose
Quintana
17.1%+485
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Kyle
Wright
17.1%+485
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes99Jeffrey
Springs
17.0%+485
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Justin
Verlander
17.0%+490
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes103Zach
Plesac
17.0%+490
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Justin
Verlander
17.0%+490
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo103Janson
Junk
16.7%+500
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo98Carlos
Carrasco
16.6%+500
Matt
Chapman
TORNo98Sonny
Gray
16.6%+500
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes95Joe
Musgrove
16.5%+505
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Brandon
Woodruff
16.5%+505
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes94Drew
Hutchison
16.4%+510
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97Marcus
Stroman
16.2%+515
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Paul
Blackburn
16.0%+525
Austin
Riley
ATLNo98Carlos
Carrasco
16.0%+525
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo91Miles
Mikolas
15.7%+540
Will
Smith
LADNo90Jakob
Junis
15.5%+545
Luis
Urias
MILNo92Zach
Thompson
15.2%+555
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWYes95Cole
Ragans
15.2%+560
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes90Clayton
Kershaw
15.2%+560
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes97Marcus
Stroman
14.9%+570
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo99Zach
Plesac
14.9%+570
Luke
Voit
WSHNo110Noah
Syndergaard
14.8%+575
J.D.
Martinez
BOSYes92Kris
Bubic
14.8%+575
Brandon
Drury
SDYes96Kyle
Freeland
14.7%+580
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes95Cole
Ragans
14.5%+590
Luis
Robert
CHWYes95Cole
Ragans
14.5%+590
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes99Alek
Manoah
14.5%+590
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95Johnny
Cueto
14.4%+595
Eric
Haase
DETYes99Jeffrey
Springs
14.4%+595
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes97Marcus
Stroman
14.3%+600
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo98Carlos
Carrasco
14.1%+610
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Kyle
Wright
14.1%+610
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo110Noah
Syndergaard
14.1%+610
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Paul
Blackburn
14.0%+610
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWYes95Cole
Ragans
13.9%+620
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Nick
Pivetta
13.7%+630
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes87Jakob
Junis
13.6%+635
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSYes92Kris
Bubic
13.5%+640
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98Alek
Manoah
13.5%+645
Orlando
Arcia
ATLNo98Carlos
Carrasco
13.5%+645
Jose
Miranda
MINNo98Alek
Manoah
13.5%+645
Ian
Happ
CHCYes91Jose
Quintana
13.4%+650
Stephen
Piscotty
OAKNo103Janson
Junk
13.3%+650
Joey
Gallo
LADYes87Jakob
Junis
13.0%+665
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes103Justin
Verlander
12.9%+675
Tommy
Pham
BOSYes92Kris
Bubic
12.8%+680
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo110Noah
Syndergaard
12.6%+695
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes96Kyle
Freeland
12.6%+695
Tim
Anderson
CHWYes95Cole
Ragans
12.5%+700
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes106Noah
Syndergaard
12.4%+705
Danny
Jansen
TORNo98Sonny
Gray
12.1%+725
Bo
Bichette
TORNo98Sonny
Gray
12.1%+725
Juan
Soto
SDNo95Kyle
Freeland
12.0%+730
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCYes91Jose
Quintana
12.0%+730
Kolten
Wong
MILYes95Zach
Thompson
12.0%+730
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101Johnny
Cueto
11.9%+735
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes94Drew
Hutchison
11.9%+740
Jo
Adell
LAANo103Paul
Blackburn
11.9%+740
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo96Joe
Musgrove
11.9%+740
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Paolo
Espino
11.8%+745
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes87Jakob
Junis
11.8%+750
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo91Miles
Mikolas
11.3%+780
David
Peralta
TBYes94Drew
Hutchison
11.2%+790
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFNo87Clayton
Kershaw
11.2%+795
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes108Paul
Blackburn
11.1%+805
Austin
Hedges
CLENo99Justin
Verlander
10.8%+830
Paul
DeJong
STLNo91Marcus
Stroman
10.7%+835
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo91Miles
Mikolas
10.7%+835
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes95Kyle
Wright
10.6%+840
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes95Carlos
Carrasco
10.6%+840
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo96Joe
Musgrove
10.5%+855
Max
Muncy
LADYes87Jakob
Junis
10.5%+855
A.J.
Pollock
CHWYes95Cole
Ragans
10.3%+875
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes95Cole
Ragans
10.3%+875
Trent
Grisham
SDNo95Kyle
Freeland
10.3%+875
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo92Zach
Thompson
10.1%+890
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Paolo
Espino
10.1%+890
Corey
Dickerson
STLYes97Marcus
Stroman
10.1%+895
Paul
DeJong
STLNo91Marcus
Stroman
10.0%+900
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo98Sonny
Gray
10.0%+905
Christopher
Morel
CHCYes91Jose
Quintana
9.9%+910
Christian
Yelich
MILYes95Zach
Thompson
9.9%+910
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes95Carlos
Carrasco
9.9%+910
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95Kyle
Wright
9.9%+910
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes95Joe
Musgrove
9.9%+910
Daz
Cameron
DETYes99Jeffrey
Springs
9.9%+915
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Justin
Verlander
9.8%+915
Joey
Bart
SFYes90Clayton
Kershaw
9.8%+920
Elias
Diaz
COLNo96Joe
Musgrove
9.8%+925
Jake
Cronenworth
SDNo95Kyle
Freeland
9.7%+935
Josh
Harrison
CHWYes95Cole
Ragans
9.5%+950
Mark
Contreras
MINYes99Alek
Manoah
9.5%+955
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Nick
Pivetta
9.4%+965
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo99Drew
Hutchison
9.3%+975
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo98Carlos
Carrasco
9.2%+985
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCYes91Jose
Quintana
9.1%+995
Taylor
Walls
TBYes94Drew
Hutchison
9.1%+1005
Yermin
Mercedes
SFYes90Clayton
Kershaw
9.1%+1005
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXNo95Johnny
Cueto
9.0%+1015
Nick
Pratto
KCYes92Nick
Pivetta
8.9%+1025
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes101Johnny
Cueto
8.9%+1025
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes101Johnny
Cueto
8.9%+1025
Tony
Kemp
OAKYes108Janson
Junk
8.6%+1065
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes97Miles
Mikolas
8.6%+1070
Luis
Garcia
WSHNo110Noah
Syndergaard
8.5%+1070
Jose
Siri
TBNo99Drew
Hutchison
8.5%+1070
Starling
Marte
NYMNo98Kyle
Wright
8.5%+1085
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo98Carlos
Carrasco
8.5%+1085
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes95Zach
Thompson
8.4%+1090
Jonathan
Schoop
DETYes99Jeffrey
Springs
8.2%+1115
Elvis
Andrus
OAKNo103Janson
Junk
8.0%+1145
Kevin
Newman
PITNo92Brandon
Woodruff
8.0%+1155
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes97Miles
Mikolas
7.8%+1185
Ian
Happ
CHCYes97Miles
Mikolas
7.8%+1185
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes97Marcus
Stroman
7.8%+1185
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes97Marcus
Stroman
7.8%+1185
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo99Zach
Plesac
7.7%+1190
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Justin
Verlander
7.7%+1190
Jaylin
Davis
BOSYes92Kris
Bubic
7.7%+1200
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo98Sonny
Gray
7.7%+1205
Luke
Raley
TBYes94Drew
Hutchison
7.5%+1225
David
Villar
SFYes90Clayton
Kershaw
7.5%+1225
Jose
Iglesias
COLNo96Joe
Musgrove
7.5%+1230
Victor
Reyes
DETYes99Jeffrey
Springs
7.4%+1255
Willi
Castro
DETYes99Jeffrey
Springs
7.4%+1255
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITNo92Brandon
Woodruff
7.2%+1280
Yadier
Molina
STLNo91Marcus
Stroman
7.2%+1295
Yadier
Molina
STLNo91Marcus
Stroman
7.2%+1295
Yan
Gomes
CHCNo91Miles
Mikolas
7.2%+1295
Frank
Schwindel
CHCNo91Miles
Mikolas
7.2%+1295
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Justin
Verlander
7.0%+1340
Alex
Verdugo
BOSNo92Kris
Bubic
6.9%+1350
Mark
Canha
NYMNo98Kyle
Wright
6.9%+1350
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo98Alek
Manoah
6.9%+1350
Ben
Gamel
PITYes95Brandon
Woodruff
6.8%+1365
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108Paul
Blackburn
6.8%+1370
Vimael
Machin
OAKYes108Janson
Junk
6.8%+1370
Didi
Gregorius
PHIYes106Paolo
Espino
6.7%+1395
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes106Noah
Syndergaard
6.7%+1395
Brandon
Marsh
PHIYes106Paolo
Espino
6.7%+1395