MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 8/8/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | Justin Dunn |
8.5 | 5.30 | 43.7% | 28.3% | 16.7% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| TOR | Jordan Lyles |
9.5 | 5.14 | 40.9% | 25.9% | 14.8% | 7.8% | 3.7% |
| ARI | Tyler Beede |
8.0 | 4.75 | 34.0% | 20.2% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| SD | Alex Wood |
8.0 | 4.50 | 29.7% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| BAL | Yusei Kikuchi |
9.5 | 4.36 | 27.3% | 15.1% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| CHC | Anibal Sanchez |
7.5 | 4.25 | 25.5% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| NYY | Logan Gilbert |
7.5 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| OAK | Jose Suarez |
7.0 | 3.61 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| SEA | Jameson Taillon |
7.5 | 3.61 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| SF | Blake Snell |
8.0 | 3.50 | 14.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| LAA | Cole Irvin |
7.0 | 3.39 | 12.8% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| PIT | Zac Gallen |
8.0 | 3.25 | 11.1% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| WSH | Keegan Thompson |
7.5 | 3.25 | 11.1% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| CIN | Chris Bassitt |
8.5 | 3.20 | 10.5% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt |
CIN | 6.6 | 89.7% | 79.1% | 65.0% | 49.4% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.4% |
| Blake Snell |
SF | 6.4 | 88.3% | 76.8% | 62.1% | 46.2% | 31.7% | 20.0% | 11.7% |
| Zac Gallen |
PIT | 5.3 | 77.8% | 61.5% | 44.2% | 28.7% | 17.0% | 9.2% | 4.5% |
| Alex Wood |
SD | 5.2 | 76.3% | 59.6% | 42.1% | 26.9% | 15.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
| Logan Gilbert |
NYY | 5.1 | 75.3% | 58.2% | 40.7% | 25.7% | 14.7% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
| Jordan Lyles |
TOR | 4.8 | 70.9% | 52.7% | 35.2% | 21.2% | 11.5% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| Jameson Taillon |
SEA | 4.8 | 70.3% | 52.0% | 34.6% | 20.6% | 11.1% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Keegan Thompson |
WSH | 4.6 | 66.8% | 47.9% | 30.7% | 17.7% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Yusei Kikuchi |
BAL | 4.3 | 62.6% | 43.3% | 26.7% | 14.7% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Cole Irvin |
LAA | 4.3 | 62.3% | 43.0% | 26.3% | 14.4% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Jose Suarez |
OAK | 4.1 | 58.2% | 38.7% | 22.7% | 11.9% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Anibal Sanchez |
CHC | 4.0 | 57.4% | 37.9% | 22.1% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Justin Dunn |
NYM | 3.5 | 47.0% | 28.0% | 14.6% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Beede |
ARI | 3.5 | 45.5% | 26.7% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge |
NYY | No | 99 | Logan Gilbert |
31.8% | +215 |
| Eugenio Suarez |
SEA | No | 99 | Jameson Taillon |
25.4% | +295 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
TOR | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles |
24.2% | +315 |
| Danny Jansen |
TOR | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles |
23.1% | +330 |
| Anthony Santander |
BAL | Yes | 112 | Yusei Kikuchi |
23.1% | +335 |
| Ryan Mountcastle |
BAL | Yes | 112 | Yusei Kikuchi |
23.1% | +335 |
| Teoscar Hernandez |
TOR | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles |
22.6% | +340 |
| Pete Alonso |
NYM | No | 98 | Justin Dunn |
22.5% | +345 |
| Ramon Urias |
BAL | Yes | 112 | Yusei Kikuchi |
22.5% | +345 |
| Nelson Velazquez |
CHC | No | 103 | Anibal Sanchez |
22.3% | +350 |
| Matt Chapman |
TOR | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles |
20.9% | +380 |
| Willson Contreras |
CHC | No | 103 | Anibal Sanchez |
20.8% | +380 |
| Anthony Rizzo |
NYY | Yes | 96 | Logan Gilbert |
20.1% | +400 |
| Luke Voit |
WSH | No | 103 | Keegan Thompson |
19.7% | +410 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
LAA | No | 92 | Cole Irvin |
19.6% | +410 |
| Brandon Drury |
SD | Yes | 96 | Alex Wood |
19.6% | +410 |
| Bo Bichette |
TOR | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles |
19.1% | +425 |
| Patrick Wisdom |
CHC | No | 103 | Anibal Sanchez |
19.1% | +425 |
| Christian Walker |
ARI | No | 93 | Tyler Beede |
18.7% | +435 |
| Christopher Morel |
CHC | No | 103 | Anibal Sanchez |
18.5% | +440 |
| Taylor Ward |
LAA | Yes | 94 | Cole Irvin |
18.2% | +450 |
| Gleyber Torres |
NYY | No | 99 | Logan Gilbert |
17.4% | +475 |
| Wilmer Flores |
SF | Yes | 96 | Blake Snell |
17.2% | +480 |
| Josh Donaldson |
NYY | No | 99 | Logan Gilbert |
16.8% | +495 |
| Kyle Lewis |
SEA | No | 99 | Jameson Taillon |
16.8% | +495 |
| Jorge Mateo |
BAL | Yes | 112 | Yusei Kikuchi |
16.6% | +500 |
| Tyler Naquin |
NYM | Yes | 95 | Justin Dunn |
16.5% | +505 |
| Dan Vogelbach |
NYM | Yes | 95 | Justin Dunn |
16.5% | +505 |
| Bryan Reynolds |
PIT | Yes | 99 | Zac Gallen |
16.5% | +505 |
| Ramon Laureano |
OAK | Yes | 94 | Jose Suarez |
16.3% | +510 |
| Ian Happ |
CHC | Yes | 96 | Anibal Sanchez |
16.1% | +525 |
| Adley Rutschman |
BAL | Yes | 112 | Yusei Kikuchi |
15.9% | +530 |
| Ketel Marte |
ARI | Yes | 99 | Tyler Beede |
15.8% | +530 |
| Seiya Suzuki |
CHC | No | 103 | Anibal Sanchez |
15.4% | +550 |
| Manny Machado |
SD | Yes | 96 | Alex Wood |
15.3% | +550 |
| Francisco Lindor |
NYM | Yes | 95 | Justin Dunn |
15.3% | +555 |
| Max Stassi |
LAA | Yes | 94 | Cole Irvin |
15.1% | +565 |
| Jonathan India |
CIN | No | 98 | Chris Bassitt |
14.8% | +575 |
| Lane Thomas |
WSH | No | 103 | Keegan Thompson |
14.7% | +580 |
| Jake Fraley |
CIN | Yes | 95 | Chris Bassitt |
14.7% | +580 |
| Oneil Cruz |
PIT | Yes | 99 | Zac Gallen |
14.5% | +590 |
| Stephen Piscotty |
OAK | Yes | 94 | Jose Suarez |
14.4% | +595 |
| Jarred Kelenic |
SEA | Yes | 96 | Jameson Taillon |
14.2% | +605 |
| Cal Raleigh |
SEA | Yes | 96 | Jameson Taillon |
14.2% | +605 |
| Joey Votto |
CIN | Yes | 95 | Chris Bassitt |
14.0% | +615 |
| Sean Murphy |
OAK | Yes | 94 | Jose Suarez |
13.7% | +625 |
| Jared Walsh |
LAA | No | 92 | Cole Irvin |
13.4% | +650 |
| Jake Cronenworth |
SD | No | 95 | Alex Wood |
13.2% | +660 |
| Daulton Varsho |
ARI | Yes | 99 | Tyler Beede |
13.2% | +660 |
| Ty France |
SEA | No | 99 | Jameson Taillon |
12.9% | +675 |
| Carlos Santana |
SEA | Yes | 96 | Jameson Taillon |
12.8% | +680 |
| Rafael Ortega |
CHC | Yes | 96 | Anibal Sanchez |
12.1% | +725 |
| Trent Grisham |
SD | No | 95 | Alex Wood |
12.0% | +730 |
| Alejandro Kirk |
TOR | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles |
12.0% | +735 |
| Alek Thomas |
ARI | Yes | 99 | Tyler Beede |
11.7% | +750 |
| Chad Pinder |
OAK | Yes | 94 | Jose Suarez |
11.6% | +760 |
| Jo Adell |
LAA | Yes | 94 | Cole Irvin |
11.6% | +760 |
| Carson Kelly |
ARI | No | 93 | Tyler Beede |
11.6% | +765 |
| Jose Trevino |
NYY | No | 99 | Logan Gilbert |
11.5% | +770 |
| Yadiel Hernandez |
WSH | Yes | 96 | Keegan Thompson |
11.4% | +775 |
| Donovan Solano |
CIN | No | 98 | Chris Bassitt |
11.4% | +775 |
| Victor Robles |
WSH | No | 103 | Keegan Thompson |
11.2% | +795 |
| Josh Bell |
SD | Yes | 96 | Alex Wood |
11.1% | +800 |
| Thairo Estrada |
SF | Yes | 96 | Blake Snell |
11.1% | +800 |
| DJ LeMahieu |
NYY | No | 99 | Logan Gilbert |
10.8% | +830 |
| Jesse Winker |
SEA | Yes | 96 | Jameson Taillon |
10.7% | +835 |
| Lourdes Gurriel |
TOR | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles |
10.4% | +865 |
| Jorge Alfaro |
SD | Yes | 96 | Alex Wood |
10.4% | +865 |
| J.D. Davis |
SF | Yes | 96 | Blake Snell |
10.4% | +865 |
| Juan Soto |
SD | No | 95 | Alex Wood |
10.3% | +875 |
| Jake McCarthy |
ARI | Yes | 99 | Tyler Beede |
10.3% | +875 |
| Luis Rengifo |
LAA | Yes | 94 | Cole Irvin |
10.2% | +885 |
| Starling Marte |
NYM | No | 98 | Justin Dunn |
10.0% | +905 |
| Brandon Nimmo |
NYM | Yes | 95 | Justin Dunn |
9.9% | +910 |
| Brandon Belt |
SF | No | 95 | Blake Snell |
9.7% | +935 |
| Nelson Cruz |
WSH | No | 103 | Keegan Thompson |
9.6% | +940 |
| Austin Slater |
SF | Yes | 96 | Blake Snell |
9.6% | +940 |
| Seth Brown |
OAK | No | 92 | Jose Suarez |
9.4% | +965 |
| Luis Gonzalez |
SF | Yes | 96 | Blake Snell |
8.8% | +1035 |
| Joey Bart |
SF | Yes | 96 | Blake Snell |
8.8% | +1035 |
| Ben Gamel |
PIT | Yes | 99 | Zac Gallen |
8.7% | +1050 |
| Santiago Espinal |
TOR | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles |
8.7% | +1055 |
| Luis Guillorme |
NYM | Yes | 95 | Justin Dunn |
8.4% | +1090 |
| Robinson Chirinos |
BAL | Yes | 112 | Yusei Kikuchi |
8.3% | +1110 |
| Cedric Mullins |
BAL | Yes | 112 | Yusei Kikuchi |
8.3% | +1110 |
| Ryan McKenna |
BAL | Yes | 112 | Yusei Kikuchi |
8.3% | +1110 |
| Nico Hoerner |
CHC | No | 103 | Anibal Sanchez |
8.0% | +1145 |
| Jurickson Profar |
SD | Yes | 96 | Alex Wood |
8.0% | +1150 |
| Josh Rojas |
ARI | Yes | 99 | Tyler Beede |
7.9% | +1165 |
| David Fletcher |
LAA | Yes | 94 | Cole Irvin |
7.9% | +1175 |
| Jeff McNeil |
NYM | Yes | 95 | Justin Dunn |
7.6% | +1210 |
| Maikel Franco |
WSH | No | 103 | Keegan Thompson |
7.2% | +1285 |
| Luis Garcia |
WSH | No | 103 | Keegan Thompson |
7.2% | +1285 |
| Elvis Andrus |
OAK | Yes | 94 | Jose Suarez |
7.0% | +1320 |
| Jed Lowrie |
OAK | Yes | 94 | Jose Suarez |
7.0% | +1320 |
| Aaron Hicks |
NYY | Yes | 96 | Logan Gilbert |
6.9% | +1350 |
| Cesar Hernandez |
WSH | Yes | 96 | Keegan Thompson |
6.9% | +1350 |
| Keibert Ruiz |
WSH | Yes | 96 | Keegan Thompson |
6.9% | +1350 |
| Aristides Aquino |
CIN | No | 98 | Chris Bassitt |
6.9% | +1350 |
| Jose Barrero |
CIN | No | 98 | Chris Bassitt |
6.9% | +1350 |
| Mike Moustakas |
CIN | Yes | 95 | Chris Bassitt |
6.8% | +1365 |
| Ha-Seong Kim |
SD | Yes | 96 | Alex Wood |
6.3% | +1475 |
| Cal Mitchell |
PIT | Yes | 99 | Zac Gallen |
6.3% | +1495 |
| Bligh Madris |
PIT | Yes | 99 | Zac Gallen |
6.3% | +1495 |
