MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/9/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
Braves Moneyline (-148): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Atlanta Braves are road favorites tonight at the Boston Red Sox, but our model thinks they should be slightly bigger favorites than they are.
Charlie Morton is going for the Braves, and after a slow start to the campaign, he's been excellent. He's pitched to a 3.58 SIERA and 27.2% strikeout rate for the year. Over his past nine outings, he's recorded a 3.19 xFIP with a 30.8% strikeout rate, punching out 68 in 56 1/3 frames.
Facing the Red Sox at Fenway is never easy, but Boston's bats are struggling of late, sitting 21st in wOBA (.295) over the past 14 days.
Rich Hill gets the ball for the Sox, and he's got his work cut out for him. Against left-handers this campaign, Atlanta ranks seventh in wOBA (.322) with the game's highest hard-hit rate (35.1%). Righties like Ronald Acuna, Dansby Swanson, Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley make the Braves a brutal matchup for southpaws.
Behind a strong offensive showing, Atlanta projects to win this game by a score of 5.73-4.38, according to our numbers. Our model gives Atlanta win odds of 62.2%, which aligns with a moneyline price of -165. The current -148 moneyline implies win odds of 59.7%. That creates a sliver of value in taking Atlanta to win, a bet we assign a one-star rating (one-unit recommendation).
Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 8.5 (-115): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model strongly backs the over in tonight's clash between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks, a game that features a pitching matchup of Zach Thompson and Tommy Henry.
Arizona's offense is sneaky-good against righties (seventh in hard-hit rate) and is swinging it well right now (13th in wOBA over the past 30 days). They can take advantage of a soft matchup with Thompson, who is giving up 1.68 dingers per nine this season along with a measly 15.9% walk rate.
Once Thompson is pulled, a Pittsburgh 'pen that ranks second-worst in reliever xFIP (4.49) over the last 30 days isn't likely to slow down the Snakes.
We have the Diamondbacks scoring 5.48 runs. We shouldn't need the Pirates' offense to do too much to get us to the over, but our projections have them going off, as well.
They'll see Henry, a rookie lefty. Henry has only five MLB frames under his belt, and he gave up four earned runs in those five innings in his only other start. Over 108 innings this year in Triple-A, Henry struck out just 21.9% of hitters and had a 5.17 xFIP. He's probably not ready for The Show, and we think the Pirates get to him for 5.19 runs.
So, in all, we project a total of 10.67 runs -- more than two runs over the listed line. We give the over a 68.0% chance to win out and mark it as a four-star bet. It's our top bet of the day.
