3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Wednesday 8/10/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Ryan Pepiot, P, Dodgers ($6,200)
Ryan Pepiot offers a ton of salary savings -- which is especially big on a Coors slate -- and is worth considering as a punt play tonight.
Pepiot is at home versus the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota is a quality offense, with an active roster that has the fourth-best wOBA (.338) against right-handers, so it's a tough spot.
A rookie, Pepiot has just 16 1/3 MLB frames on his resume. He's shown the ability to miss bats (26.8% strikeout rate) but is also walking too many hitters (16.9% walk rate). Obviously, 16 1/3 innings is a tiny sample, but Pepiot has been a similar pitcher in Triple-A this year, posting a 30.8% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate across 75 1/3 innings. The strikeout juice is pretty good for a guy with a salary this low.
Pepiot has thrown between 84 and 87 pitches in three of his four MLB starts, so the workload leaves a little to be desired. But he has a solid chance at a win with the Los Angeles Dodgers being a -162 moneyline favorite, and for $6,200, he checks some boxes.
We project Pepiot for 24.4 FanDuel points and rank him as the night's second-best point-per-dollar arm.
Paul DeJong, SS, Cardinals ($2,800)
Paul DeJong has been really good since getting recalled. In 36 plate appearances, he's mashed his way to a .469 wOBA with 4 jacks and 12 RBI. He donged in three straight games in Triple-A before getting the call, too, so the dude is on fire.
DeJong popped a tater last night at Coors, and he's in a great spot to have another big game with the Colorado Rockies sending southpaw Kyle Freeland to the mound. Versus lefties this year, DeJong has a .344 wOBA, and Freeland is striking out only 16.9% of right-handers.
The St. Louis Cardinals boast a massive 6.31 implied total -- a slate-best mark by 1.12 runs -- and DeJong is a low-salary way to get in on the fun. As such, he will likely be chalky tonight, but he's in a smash spot.
Yuli Gurriel, 1B, Astros ($2,400)
Yuli Gurriel is now entrenched as the number-two hitter for the Houston Astros, one of the game's elite offenses. His salary doesn't yet reflect his newish spot in the lineup.
The Astros are one of the night's best non-Coors stacks as they have a 4.69 implied total against Glenn Otto. The owner of a 4.87 SIERA and 18.8% strikeout rate, Otto is having a rough year. A matchup with Houston doesn't figure to be the remedy for his struggles.
For $2,400, Gurriel gets you heart-of-the-order exposure to one of the slate's top offenses. We project him to total 12.5 FanDuel points and have him as the night's point-per-dollar hitter.
