3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/15/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Teoscar Hernandez To Hit a Home Run (+340)/Matt Chapman To Hit a Home Run (+430)
The Toronto Blue Jays have a slate-high 4.89 implied run total and are in a great matchup for some scoring.
The Jays are taking on the Baltimore Orioles, who will have Kyle Bradish on the mound. Bradish has struggled against right-handed hitters this season and is the ideal type of pitcher to target for player props.
This season, Bradish is allowing a .604 SLG, .435 wOBA, 2.50 HR/9, 4.33 xFIP, 38.8% fly-ball rate, and 41.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. This puts the Blue Jays in a very favorable spot, and they are primed for some offense.
We turn to Teoscar Hernandez, who comes in with a 122 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .202 ISO, 32.8% fly-ball rate, and 41.5% hard-contact rate versus righties this season.
Next up is Matt Chapman, who is rocking a 119 wRC+, .339 wOBA, .230 ISO, 52.0% fly-ball rate, and 44.6% hard-contact rate against right-handed pitchers.
These are two strong righty hitters with a great matchup, so I'm also adding Hernandez To Record an RBI (+120) and Chapman To Record an RBI (+170).
Freddy Peralta Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Under 5.5 strikeouts for Freddy Peralta is the spot to look at tonight.
There's no doubt Peralta is a good pitcher -- he's posted a strikeout rate over 30.0% in each of the last three seasons -- but this isn't the spot for him.
Peralta has made two starts since his return from the injured list and has racked up three and four strikeouts. What's more important is the fact that he pitched only 65 and 67 pitches in those starts.
If he is going to be on a limited pitch count, it will hinder his ability to rack up strikeouts. Combine that with the fact he is taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers, so he's not dealing with the best matchup. The Dodgers have a 21.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-lowest in the league.
Not to mention the Dodgers have an elite offense and could post plenty of runs in a hurry, chasing Peralta from the game. It all points to the under 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
Corey Seager To Record an RBI (+120)
The Texas Rangers are another offense primed for some runs tonight.
With a 4.65 implied run total, the Rangers are the second-highest on the slate behind the Blue Jays. They have a great matchup against James Kaprielian, putting us on the hunt for some plus money player props.
This season, Kaprielian is carrying a .414 SLG, 4.83 xFIP, 1.33 HR/9, 15.4% strikeout rate, 37.8% fly-ball rate, and 34.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, he allows too many fly balls, and he's facing some tough hitters.
One of those hitters would be Corey Seager, who comes in with a 127 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .201 IS0, 39.4% fly-ball rate, and 40.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handers. No matter how you slice it, Seager is in a great spot, so I'll also look to add Seager 2+ RBI (+440).
