3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Wednesday 8/17/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Jordan Montgomery, P, Cardinals ($8,700)
Max Scherzer ($11,500) and Carlos Rodon ($10,700) are the logical top two tonight at pitcher. I think you can make a case for Jordan Montgomery as the night's number-three arm, especially once you factor in salaries.
Montgomery, the owner of a 3.75 SIERA, has a 13.7% swinging-strike rate, which tells us his 20.8% strikeout rate is likely due for some positive regression. The move to the St. Louis Cardinals should be a lift for his prospects, as well. St. Louis has the third-best defense by Outs Above Average, per Baseball Savant.
On top of that, the Cards have loosened the leash on Montgomery's pitch count so far, letting him get up to 108 pitches last time out. That's a very noteworthy shift. Montgomery's season-high as a member of the New York Yankees was 97. He was capped at 86 or fewer pitches in four of his last five starts with the Yanks.
The matchup is 100% there tonight as Montgomery gets the Colorado Rockies in St. Louis. The Rockies' 3.00 implied total is a slate-low mark.
Montgomery doesn't have the upside that Rodon and Scherzer do, but there's a lot to like about him at this salary and in this matchup.
Michael Chavis, 1B/2B/3B, Pirates ($2,400)
Michael Chavis is on the dart-throw radar when he's seeing a lefty, and that's the case Wednesday as he'll square off against Rich Hill.
Hill has a meager 17.8% strikeout rate for the year, and righties have hammered him to the tune of a .356 wOBA. The wheels have fallen off lately for the veteran, with Hill conceding 15 earned runs over his previous five starts (22 2/3 frames).
Chavis has good numbers against southpaws. He's got seven jacks and a 42.2% fly-ball rate in 146 plate appearances in the split this year. He should be in the heart of the order.
I'm not sure I can full-on stack the Pittsburgh Pirates, but Chavis is a handy one-off salary-saver who you can plug in at a variety of positions.
Marcus Semien, 2B, Rangers ($2,400)
Yes, three straight days of me writing up Marcus Semien in values. He just keeps projecting extremely well for someone at this salary.
Semien saw a drastic -- maybe too drastic -- salary drop for Monday's slate, and everything I've said about him the past two days still fits today. He's still hitting leadoff, and he keeps drawing quality matchups against meh Oakland Athletics hurlers.
Adam Oller is throwing today for the A's, and he's exactly the kind of guy we want to pick on in DFS. Oller sports a 13.5% strikeout rate and a 52.1% fly-ball rate. That's led to 2.23 homers per nine. Yes, please, to all of that.
Our model projects Semien for 15.9 FanDuel points. Not only is he the best point-per-dollar bat by a mile (as of early Wednesday), Semien is actually our number-four bat overall.
