3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/22/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Austin Riley To Hit a Home Run (+340)/Ronald Acuna Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+360)
The Atlanta Braves have a 4.84 implied run total and a solid matchup tonight.
A favorable matchup puts several of the Braves' hitters in a spot for some offense, and that means home run props. The Braves are taking on Roansy Contreras of the Pittsburgh Pirates, a young pitcher who struggles with home runs.
This season. Contreras has allowed a .500 SLG, a .367 wOBA, a 4.19 xFIP, 1.82 HR/9, a 36.9% fly-ball rate, and a 38.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. The Braves have a ton of righty power hitters who should be able to capitalize.
We turn to Austin Riley, who is elite with a 124 wRC+, a .353 wOBA, a .234 ISO, a 40.7% fly-ball rate, and a 41.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Next would be Ronald Acuna, who comes in with a 112 wRC+, a .336 wOBA, a .127 ISO, a 35.4% fly-ball rate, and a 32.3% hard-contact rate in the split. Acuna's numbers are a bit lower overall this season but have been trending up in August. The numbers are also lower than what he posted last season as well as his career numbers, so he should be due for a bit of positive regression.
This is a favorable matchup for these two, so I'm adding Riley To Record an RBI (+115) and Acuna To Record an RBI (+135).
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Sonny Gray has a solid matchup for his strikeout prop tonight.
Gray's prop is only 5.5, and I'm going with the over against the Texas Rangers. Gray owns a 24.3% strikeout rate on the season but has increased that a bit in some recent starts. Over his last five outings, Gray has posted a single-game strikeout rate of 25.0% or higher in four of the five starts, including two up at 31.8% and 45.5%.
Pushing the strikeout rate just a bit higher is always a good sign for a pitcher, especially when he has a favorable matchup in front of him. The Rangers come in with a 23.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-worst in the league.
Gray has shown strong form lately and has a matchup that should allow him to continue that tonight.
Paul Goldschmidt To Record an RBI (+120)
An MVP candidate player prop at plus money? Sign me up.
Paul Goldschmidt is the odds-on favorite (-370) to win the National League MVP, and we're getting his RBI prop at +120. The St. Louis Cardinals have a 4.73 implied run total tonight, which is the fourth-highest on the slate.
They are taking on Drew Smyly, who is allowing a .465 SLG, a .336 wOBA, 1.47 HR/9, and a 41.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters this season.
Goldy is sporting a 172 wRC+, a .415 wOBA, a .264 ISO, a 41.7% fly-ball rate, and a 34.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Goldy continues to crush righties this season, so it's really not too much to add Goldschmidt 2+ RBI (+410). He's an MVP candidate for a reason and consistently produces in this split.
