MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 8/22/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Luis Cessa | 8.5 | 5.03 | 38.9% | 24.2% | 13.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
| MIN | Cole Ragans | 8.5 | 4.93 | 37.2% | 22.8% | 12.6% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| ATL | Roansy Contreras | 8.5 | 4.84 | 35.6% | 21.5% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| CHW | Daniel Lynch | 8.5 | 4.65 | 32.3% | 18.9% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| LAD | Eric Lauer | 7.5 | 4.53 | 30.2% | 17.3% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| STL | Drew Smyly | 8.0 | 4.44 | 28.7% | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| NYM | Domingo German | 7.5 | 4.13 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| TB | Tucker Davidson | 7.0 | 4.06 | 22.4% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| KC | Michael Kopech | 8.5 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| MIA | Adam Oller | 7.0 | 3.72 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| PIT | Jake Odorizzi | 8.5 | 3.66 | 16.4% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| TEX | Sonny Gray | 8.5 | 3.57 | 15.2% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| CHC | Jordan Montgomery | 8.0 | 3.56 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| CIN | Noah Syndergaard | 8.5 | 3.47 | 13.8% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| NYY | Max Scherzer | 7.5 | 3.37 | 12.6% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| OAK | Pablo Lopez | 7.0 | 3.28 | 11.5% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| MIL | Julio Urias | 7.5 | 2.97 | 8.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| LAA | Jeffrey Springs | 7.0 | 2.94 | 7.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | NYY | 8.0 | 95.7% | 89.9% | 80.7% | 68.4% | 54.4% | 40.5% | 28.1% |
| Jeffrey Springs | LAA | 5.9 | 84.1% | 70.3% | 54.0% | 37.9% | 24.4% | 14.4% | 7.8% |
| Julio Urias | MIL | 5.9 | 83.7% | 69.7% | 53.3% | 37.3% | 23.8% | 14.0% | 7.5% |
| Sonny Gray | TEX | 5.5 | 79.4% | 63.6% | 46.4% | 30.8% | 18.6% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
| Pablo Lopez | OAK | 5.1 | 74.3% | 57.0% | 39.5% | 24.7% | 14.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
| Eric Lauer | LAD | 4.9 | 72.6% | 54.9% | 37.4% | 22.9% | 12.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| Jordan Montgomery | CHC | 4.9 | 71.6% | 53.6% | 36.1% | 21.9% | 12.0% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | CIN | 4.8 | 70.9% | 52.7% | 35.2% | 21.2% | 11.5% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| Michael Kopech | KC | 4.8 | 70.9% | 52.7% | 35.2% | 21.2% | 11.5% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| Daniel Lynch | CHW | 4.7 | 68.9% | 50.4% | 33.0% | 19.4% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Domingo German | NYM | 4.6 | 67.8% | 49.1% | 31.8% | 18.5% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Roansy Contreras | ATL | 4.1 | 58.4% | 38.9% | 22.9% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Drew Smyly | STL | 4.0 | 55.9% | 36.3% | 20.9% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Jake Odorizzi | PIT | 4.0 | 55.9% | 36.3% | 20.9% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Adam Oller | MIA | 3.7 | 50.0% | 30.7% | 16.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Tucker Davidson | TB | 3.4 | 43.1% | 24.7% | 12.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Cole Ragans | MIN | 3.1 | 38.0% | 20.5% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Luis Cessa | PHI | 2.1 | 16.9% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | STL | Yes | 103 | Drew Smyly | 28.6% | +250 |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | Yes | 107 | Eric Lauer | 28.1% | +255 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | Yes | 103 | Drew Smyly | 26.6% | +275 |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | Yes | 98 | Cole Ragans | 26.3% | +280 |
| Aaron Judge | NYY | No | 103 | Max Scherzer | 26.0% | +285 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Yes | 106 | Luis Cessa | 25.5% | +290 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Yes | 95 | Roansy Contreras | 25.5% | +295 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | No | 98 | Sonny Gray | 24.3% | +310 |
| Mike Trout | LAA | Yes | 94 | Jeffrey Springs | 24.3% | +310 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | No | 92 | Roansy Contreras | 22.9% | +335 |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | Yes | 103 | Drew Smyly | 22.9% | +335 |
| Dan Vogelbach | NYM | Yes | 109 | Domingo German | 22.0% | +355 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 21.8% | +360 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | No | 103 | Domingo German | 20.8% | +380 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | Yes | 107 | Eric Lauer | 19.4% | +415 |
| Jorge Polanco | MIN | Yes | 98 | Cole Ragans | 19.3% | +415 |
| Travis d'Arnaud | ATL | No | 92 | Roansy Contreras | 19.1% | +425 |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | No | 110 | Luis Cessa | 18.8% | +430 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | No | 102 | Eric Lauer | 18.8% | +430 |
| Chris Taylor | LAD | Yes | 107 | Eric Lauer | 18.8% | +435 |
| Franmil Reyes | CHC | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 18.2% | +450 |
| Nelson Velazquez | CHC | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 18.2% | +450 |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | Yes | 98 | Cole Ragans | 18.1% | +450 |
| Trayce Thompson | LAD | Yes | 107 | Eric Lauer | 18.1% | +450 |
| Hunter Renfroe | MIL | Yes | 107 | Julio Urias | 18.1% | +450 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | No | 92 | Jeffrey Springs | 17.8% | +460 |
| Jesus Aguilar | MIA | No | 94 | Adam Oller | 17.8% | +460 |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | Yes | 98 | Cole Ragans | 17.5% | +470 |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | No | 92 | Roansy Contreras | 17.5% | +470 |
| Starling Marte | NYM | No | 103 | Domingo German | 17.3% | +480 |
| Rowdy Tellez | MIL | No | 102 | Julio Urias | 17.3% | +480 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | Yes | 109 | Max Scherzer | 17.1% | +485 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | Yes | 99 | Sonny Gray | 17.1% | +485 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | No | 92 | Michael Kopech | 17.0% | +490 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 16.9% | +490 |
| Will Smith | LAD | Yes | 107 | Eric Lauer | 16.7% | +500 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | Yes | 109 | Domingo German | 16.4% | +510 |
| Ronald Acuna | ATL | No | 92 | Roansy Contreras | 16.4% | +510 |
| Patrick Wisdom | CHC | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 16.2% | +515 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | No | 110 | Noah Syndergaard | 16.2% | +515 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | No | 94 | Pablo Lopez | 16.1% | +520 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | Yes | 92 | Daniel Lynch | 16.1% | +520 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | Yes | 107 | Julio Urias | 16.0% | +525 |
| Paul DeJong | STL | Yes | 103 | Drew Smyly | 15.5% | +545 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | No | 110 | Luis Cessa | 15.5% | +545 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez | 15.5% | +545 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | Yes | 92 | Daniel Lynch | 15.4% | +545 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | No | 103 | Max Scherzer | 15.4% | +550 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 95 | Jake Odorizzi | 15.3% | +555 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | Yes | 99 | Sonny Gray | 15.2% | +560 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | Yes | 98 | Cole Ragans | 14.9% | +570 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | No | 98 | Sonny Gray | 14.8% | +575 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | Yes | 92 | Daniel Lynch | 14.2% | +605 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 14.1% | +610 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | No | 110 | Luis Cessa | 14.1% | +610 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Yes | 95 | Roansy Contreras | 14.0% | +615 |
| Marcell Ozuna | ATL | No | 92 | Roansy Contreras | 14.0% | +615 |
| Francisco Mejia | TB | Yes | 94 | Tucker Davidson | 13.7% | +625 |
| Taylor Ward | LAA | Yes | 94 | Jeffrey Springs | 13.7% | +625 |
| Luis Rengifo | LAA | Yes | 94 | Jeffrey Springs | 13.7% | +625 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | Yes | 94 | Tucker Davidson | 13.7% | +625 |
| Brandon Nimmo | NYM | Yes | 109 | Domingo German | 13.5% | +640 |
| Michael Perez | NYM | Yes | 109 | Domingo German | 13.5% | +640 |
| Eloy Jimenez | CHW | Yes | 92 | Daniel Lynch | 13.5% | +640 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Yes | 95 | Jake Odorizzi | 13.4% | +650 |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | No | 96 | Drew Smyly | 13.3% | +650 |
| Jake Fraley | CIN | Yes | 106 | Noah Syndergaard | 13.2% | +660 |
| Luis Urias | MIL | Yes | 107 | Julio Urias | 13.0% | +670 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | No | 102 | Eric Lauer | 12.2% | +720 |
| Kole Calhoun | TEX | Yes | 99 | Sonny Gray | 11.7% | +750 |
| JJ Bleday | MIA | Yes | 92 | Adam Oller | 11.7% | +755 |
| Max Stassi | LAA | Yes | 94 | Jeffrey Springs | 11.6% | +760 |
| Christian Bethancourt | TB | Yes | 94 | Tucker Davidson | 11.6% | +760 |
| Isaac Paredes | TB | Yes | 94 | Tucker Davidson | 11.6% | +760 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | No | 92 | Michael Kopech | 11.5% | +775 |
| Vaughn Grissom | ATL | No | 92 | Roansy Contreras | 11.5% | +775 |
| Justin Turner | LAD | Yes | 107 | Eric Lauer | 11.4% | +775 |
| Jose Trevino | NYY | No | 103 | Max Scherzer | 11.2% | +795 |
| Aristides Aquino | CIN | No | 110 | Noah Syndergaard | 11.0% | +805 |
| Nick Pratto | KC | Yes | 92 | Michael Kopech | 11.0% | +810 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | Yes | 99 | Sonny Gray | 11.0% | +810 |
| Luis Robert | CHW | Yes | 92 | Daniel Lynch | 10.7% | +835 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | No | 103 | Max Scherzer | 10.4% | +860 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | No | 103 | Max Scherzer | 10.4% | +860 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | Yes | 92 | Michael Kopech | 10.3% | +870 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | Yes | 92 | Michael Kopech | 10.3% | +870 |
| Kolten Wong | MIL | No | 102 | Julio Urias | 10.3% | +870 |
| Donovan Solano | CIN | No | 110 | Noah Syndergaard | 10.2% | +880 |
| Nick Castellanos | PHI | No | 110 | Luis Cessa | 10.2% | +880 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | Yes | 106 | Luis Cessa | 10.1% | +890 |
| Rodolfo Castro | PIT | Yes | 95 | Jake Odorizzi | 9.9% | +910 |
| Andrew McCutchen | MIL | Yes | 107 | Julio Urias | 9.7% | +930 |
| Tyrone Taylor | MIL | Yes | 107 | Julio Urias | 9.7% | +930 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | No | 103 | Domingo German | 9.6% | +940 |
| Stephen Vogt | OAK | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez | 9.6% | +940 |
| Lewin Diaz | MIA | Yes | 92 | Adam Oller | 9.6% | +940 |
| Jo Adell | LAA | Yes | 94 | Jeffrey Springs | 9.4% | +960 |
| Tyler O'Neill | STL | Yes | 103 | Drew Smyly | 9.4% | +965 |
| Jared Walsh | LAA | No | 92 | Jeffrey Springs | 9.4% | +965 |
| Luis Arraez | MIN | No | 99 | Cole Ragans | 9.4% | +965 |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | No | 98 | Sonny Gray | 9.2% | +985 |
| Robbie Grossman | ATL | Yes | 95 | Roansy Contreras | 9.1% | +995 |
| Max Kepler | MIN | No | 99 | Cole Ragans | 8.7% | +1045 |
| Brad Miller | TEX | Yes | 99 | Sonny Gray | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Hunter Dozier | KC | No | 92 | Michael Kopech | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Yandy Diaz | TB | Yes | 94 | Tucker Davidson | 8.6% | +1055 |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Matt Vierling | PHI | No | 110 | Luis Cessa | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Elvis Andrus | CHW | Yes | 92 | Daniel Lynch | 8.5% | +1080 |
| Seby Zavala | CHW | Yes | 92 | Daniel Lynch | 8.5% | +1080 |
| Ben Gamel | PIT | Yes | 95 | Jake Odorizzi | 8.4% | +1090 |
| Gilberto Celestino | MIN | Yes | 98 | Cole Ragans | 8.2% | +1125 |
| Joey Wendle | MIA | Yes | 92 | Adam Oller | 8.1% | +1125 |
| Yu Chang | TB | Yes | 94 | Tucker Davidson | 7.9% | +1175 |
| Taylor Walls | TB | Yes | 94 | Tucker Davidson | 7.9% | +1175 |
| Nick Madrigal | CHC | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 7.7% | +1205 |
| Mike Moustakas | CIN | Yes | 106 | Noah Syndergaard | 7.6% | +1220 |
| Tony Kemp | OAK | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez | 7.4% | +1250 |
| Miguel Rojas | MIA | No | 94 | Adam Oller | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Jon Berti | MIA | No | 94 | Adam Oller | 7.4% | +1255 |
| David Fletcher | LAA | Yes | 94 | Jeffrey Springs | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Yoan Moncada | CHW | Yes | 92 | Daniel Lynch | 6.9% | +1350 |
| Brett Baty | NYM | Yes | 109 | Domingo German | 6.9% | +1355 |
| Bradley Zimmer | PHI | Yes | 106 | Luis Cessa | 6.7% | +1395 |
| Brian Anderson | MIA | No | 94 | Adam Oller | 6.6% | +1410 |
| Shea Langeliers | OAK | No | 94 | Pablo Lopez | 6.6% | +1410 |
