3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 8/24/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Rhys Hoskins To Hit a Home Run (+255)/Kyle Schwarber To Hit a Home Run (+260)
With great hitting weather and an easy matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies are set to score some runs.
The Phillies are carrying a slate-high 5.37 implied run total and are in a spot to score plenty of runs against the Cincinnati Reds. Speaking of the Reds, they will have T.J. Zeuch on the mound, a pitcher who has struggled during his time in the MLB. Zeuch only has 8.0 innings pitched this season, so we'll look to his stats since 2019.
Throughout his career, Zeuch has allowed a .505 SLG, a .408 wOBA, a 6.49 xFIP, 1.71 HR/9, and a 36.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Against righties, he has allowed a .542 SLG, a .363 wOBA, a 4.67 xFIP, 2.09 HR/9, and a 42.1% hard-contact rate.
These are some of the worst numbers you will find on tonight's slate, putting the Phillies in an elite spot.
This leads us to Rhys Hoskins, who comes in with a 108 wRC+, a .207 ISO, a .327 wOBA, a 41.1% fly-ball rate, and a 34.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Next up is Kyle Schwarber, who has a 131 wRC+, a .311 ISO, a .361 wOBA, a 53.0% fly-ball rate, and a 38.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Loving this matchup top to bottom for the Phillies, so I'm adding Hoskins To Record an RBI (-105) and Schwarber To Record an RBI (+105).
Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-108)
For a strikeout prop, we are turning to Lucas Giolito against the Baltimore Orioles tonight.
Giolito's strikeout prop is sitting at 5.5, and I'm going with the over. He comes in with a solid 25.9% strikeout rate and a 12.0% swinging-strike rate -- both of which are above the league average this season. While those are strong numbers for Giolito, they are both below what he posted in each of the last three seasons.
While Giolito's numbers are good, his ceiling is higher than he is currently showing. It's an encouraging sign when looking to the over for a strikeout prop. The Orioles comes in with a 22.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 16th in the league.
It's a fine matchup, and Giolito should be able to push to the over.
Alejandro Kirk To Record an RBI (+120)
The Toronto Blue Jays have another high implied run total, sitting at 5.14 tonight.
That means another day -- and another good matchup -- for the Blue Jays' offense. They poured in nine runs last night, and we could be seeing much of the same tonight. They are set to take on Brayan Bello, who is struggling in his first year in the MLB.
Bello has a very small sample size, but during this time, he has allowed a .579 SLG, a .445 wOBA, a 4.17 xFIP, a 9.1% walk rate, and a 15.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters. It's also good to know that the Red Sox bullpen is in the bottom 10 of the league in wOBA and SLG allowed versus right-handed hitters.
This means Alejandro Kirk is going to be in a good spot no matter who is on the mound for the Sox. Kirk comes in with a 144 wRC+, a .369 wOBA, a .157 ISO, and a 38.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
The Jays have a powerful offense and can post runs in a hurry, so Kirk 2+ RBIs (+470) is worth a little sprinkle.
