MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 8/24/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
TEXJose
Urena
11.05.7851.8%35.8%22.6%13.1%7.0%
PHIT.J.
Zeuch
9.05.3744.9%29.4%17.5%9.5%4.7%
COLMartin
Perez
11.05.2242.3%27.1%15.7%8.3%4.1%
STLLuke
Farrell
9.05.2242.3%27.1%15.7%8.3%4.1%
TORBrayan
Bello
9.55.2041.9%26.8%15.5%8.2%4.0%
LADAdrian
Houser
8.55.0739.6%24.8%14.1%7.3%3.4%
ATLMitch
Keller
8.04.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
SEAAnibal
Sanchez
7.54.6432.1%18.7%9.9%4.7%2.1%
HOUDylan
Bundy
7.54.4428.7%16.1%8.2%3.8%1.6%
CHWSpenser
Watkins
8.54.3527.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
BOSJose
Berrios
9.54.3026.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
TBMike
Mayers
7.04.2926.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
BALLucas
Giolito
8.54.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
SFMatt
Manning
7.54.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
SDCal
Quantrill
7.54.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
ARIBrady
Singer
7.53.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
CHCMiles
Mikolas
9.03.7818.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
CINCristopher
Sanchez
9.03.6316.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
MIACole
Irvin
7.03.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
KCZac
Gallen
7.53.5915.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
MILAndrew
Heaney
8.53.4313.3%6.0%2.4%0.9%0.3%
CLEBlake
Snell
7.53.4012.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
OAKJesus
Luzardo
7.03.3912.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
DETLogan
Webb
7.53.3712.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
PITKyle
Wright
8.03.2110.7%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
MINFramber
Valdez
7.53.069.0%3.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%
WSHGeorge
Kirby
7.52.867.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
LAAShane
McClanahan
7.02.715.8%2.1%0.7%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Shane
McClanahan
LAA8.095.6%89.8%80.5%68.2%54.1%40.2%27.8%
Blake
Snell
CLE6.890.8%80.9%67.4%52.2%37.3%24.6%15.1%
Framber
Valdez
MIN6.488.0%76.4%61.5%45.6%31.1%19.6%11.3%
Jesus
Luzardo
OAK6.084.4%70.8%54.6%38.6%24.9%14.8%8.1%
Andrew
Heaney
MIL5.983.7%69.7%53.3%37.3%23.8%14.0%7.5%
Lucas
Giolito
BAL5.782.4%67.9%51.2%35.2%22.1%12.7%6.7%
George
Kirby
WSH5.580.2%64.7%47.6%31.9%19.4%10.8%5.5%
Brady
Singer
ARI5.580.1%64.6%47.5%31.7%19.3%10.7%5.5%
Zac
Gallen
KC5.377.0%60.4%43.0%27.7%16.2%8.6%4.2%
Kyle
Wright
PIT5.175.0%57.9%40.3%25.4%14.5%7.6%3.6%
Jose
Berrios
BOS5.072.8%55.1%37.5%23.1%12.8%6.5%3.0%
Logan
Webb
DET4.971.8%53.8%36.3%22.0%12.1%6.1%2.8%
Mike
Mayers
TB4.870.7%52.6%35.1%21.1%11.4%5.6%2.5%
Martin
Perez
COL4.769.3%50.9%33.5%19.8%10.6%5.1%2.3%
Cristopher
Sanchez
CIN4.667.3%48.5%31.3%18.1%9.4%4.5%1.9%
Miles
Mikolas
CHC4.666.6%47.7%30.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
Cole
Irvin
MIA4.464.2%45.1%28.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
Cal
Quantrill
SD4.362.3%43.0%26.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
Mitch
Keller
ATL3.953.9%34.4%19.3%9.7%4.3%1.7%0.6%
Matt
Manning
SF3.852.2%32.8%18.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
Adrian
Houser
LAD3.851.6%32.2%17.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
Anibal
Sanchez
SEA3.749.7%30.5%16.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
Jose
Urena
TEX3.648.9%29.7%15.9%7.5%3.2%1.2%0.4%
Dylan
Bundy
HOU3.443.9%25.4%12.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
Spenser
Watkins
CHW3.443.1%24.7%12.3%5.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%
Luke
Farrell
STL3.137.1%19.8%9.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%
T.J.
Zeuch
PHI3.036.2%19.2%8.8%3.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Brayan
Bello
TOR2.626.8%12.5%5.1%1.8%0.6%0.2%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106T.J.
Zeuch
29.1%+245
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo103Luke
Farrell
29.0%+245
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110T.J.
Zeuch
27.8%+260
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo103Luke
Farrell
26.8%+275
Matt
Chapman
TORNo99Brayan
Bello
25.8%+290
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo99Brayan
Bello
25.4%+295
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo99Brayan
Bello
24.5%+310
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Anibal
Sanchez
24.1%+315
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Anibal
Sanchez
23.6%+325
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Lucas
Giolito
23.1%+330
Corey
Seager
TEXYes109Jose
Urena
23.1%+335
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Dylan
Bundy
23.0%+335
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Miles
Mikolas
22.3%+350
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Adrian
Houser
21.9%+355
George
Springer
TORNo99Brayan
Bello
21.7%+360
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Anibal
Sanchez
21.6%+365
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes96Luke
Farrell
21.6%+365
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Dylan
Bundy
21.5%+365
Mike
Trout
LAAYes94Shane
McClanahan
21.4%+365
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo103Miles
Mikolas
21.3%+370
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110T.J.
Zeuch
21.2%+370
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo99Anibal
Sanchez
21.2%+370
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Adrian
Houser
21.0%+375
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes109Jose
Urena
20.9%+380
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo99Matt
Manning
20.2%+395
Christian
Walker
ARINo92Brady
Singer
20.1%+395
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Adrian
Houser
19.9%+405
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Lucas
Giolito
19.8%+405
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Jose
Berrios
19.6%+410
C.J.
Cron
COLYes108Martin
Perez
19.5%+410
Willy
Adames
MILYes107Andrew
Heaney
19.4%+415
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes92Mike
Mayers
18.9%+430
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Dylan
Bundy
18.8%+430
Hunter
Renfroe
MILYes107Andrew
Heaney
18.8%+435
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo108Jose
Urena
18.6%+440
Austin
Riley
ATLNo92Mitch
Keller
18.6%+440
Jonathan
India
CINYes110Cristopher
Sanchez
18.5%+440
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Adrian
Houser
18.4%+440
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes92Mike
Mayers
18.4%+445
Matt
Olson
ATLYes95Mitch
Keller
18.3%+445
Joey
Gallo
LADYes102Adrian
Houser
18.1%+450
Paul
DeJong
STLNo103Luke
Farrell
17.9%+460
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Adrian
Houser
17.5%+470
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Dylan
Bundy
17.5%+470
Keston
Hiura
MILYes107Andrew
Heaney
17.4%+475
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Zac
Gallen
17.3%+480
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes96Blake
Snell
17.2%+480
Will
Smith
LADNo107Adrian
Houser
17.2%+480
Chad
Pinder
OAKYes94Jesus
Luzardo
17.0%+490
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Cal
Quantrill
17.0%+490
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes108Martin
Perez
16.9%+495
Evan
Longoria
SFNo99Matt
Manning
16.8%+495
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo99Jose
Berrios
16.8%+495
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106T.J.
Zeuch
16.7%+500
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Miles
Mikolas
16.7%+500
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Lucas
Giolito
16.5%+505
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes95Mitch
Keller
16.5%+505
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo112Spenser
Watkins
16.5%+505
Jake
Fraley
CINNo106Cristopher
Sanchez
16.2%+520
Carlos
Correa
MINYes101Framber
Valdez
16.0%+525
Juan
Soto
SDYes95Cal
Quantrill
15.9%+530
Luis
Robert
CHWNo112Spenser
Watkins
15.8%+535
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Lucas
Giolito
15.8%+535
Brandon
Drury
SDNo96Cal
Quantrill
15.8%+535
Sean
Murphy
OAKYes94Jesus
Luzardo
15.7%+535
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes110Cristopher
Sanchez
15.6%+540
Luke
Voit
WSHNo99George
Kirby
15.5%+545
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Mike
Mayers
15.5%+545
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Kyle
Wright
15.3%+555
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Kyle
Wright
15.3%+555
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes107Andrew
Heaney
15.3%+555
Jose
Miranda
MINYes101Framber
Valdez
15.3%+555
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo92Mitch
Keller
15.2%+555
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo112Spenser
Watkins
15.0%+565
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo99Brayan
Bello
14.9%+570
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo112Spenser
Watkins
14.3%+600
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes92Brady
Singer
14.3%+600
Andres
Gimenez
CLENo95Blake
Snell
14.3%+600
Joey
Meneses
WSHNo99George
Kirby
14.2%+600
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110T.J.
Zeuch
14.1%+610
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARINo92Brady
Singer
14.0%+615
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes94Matt
Manning
13.9%+620
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes108Martin
Perez
13.9%+620
Shea
Langeliers
OAKYes94Jesus
Luzardo
13.7%+625
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Lucas
Giolito
13.6%+635
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Jose
Berrios
13.6%+635
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Lucas
Giolito
13.6%+640
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes109Jose
Urena
13.5%+640
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes94Shane
McClanahan
13.1%+665
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo99Jose
Berrios
12.9%+675
Bo
Bichette
TORNo99Brayan
Bello
12.9%+675
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Zac
Gallen
12.8%+685
Brad
Miller
TEXYes109Jose
Urena
12.7%+685
Alec
Bohm
PHINo110T.J.
Zeuch
12.6%+695
Nick
Fortes
MIAYes94Cole
Irvin
12.4%+710
Seth
Brown
OAKNo92Jesus
Luzardo
12.3%+715
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Jose
Berrios
12.2%+720
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes95Cal
Quantrill
12.0%+730
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes109Jose
Urena
12.0%+735
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Dylan
Bundy
11.7%+755
David
Peralta
TBYes92Mike
Mayers
11.7%+755
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes92Mike
Mayers
11.7%+755
Nick
Maton
PHIYes106T.J.
Zeuch
11.7%+755
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes101Framber
Valdez
11.6%+760
Carson
Kelly
ARINo92Brady
Singer
11.5%+775
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Miles
Mikolas
11.4%+775
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes96Luke
Farrell
11.4%+775
Josh
Bell
SDYes95Cal
Quantrill
11.3%+785
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Lucas
Giolito
11.2%+790
Amed
Rosario
CLEYes96Blake
Snell
11.1%+800
Franchy
Cordero
BOSYes93Jose
Berrios
11.1%+800
Jesus
Aguilar
MIAYes94Cole
Irvin
10.9%+815
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes94Shane
McClanahan
10.9%+815
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo108Jose
Urena
10.8%+820
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Zac
Gallen
10.8%+825
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo92Mitch
Keller
10.8%+825
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo99Brayan
Bello
10.8%+830
Ty
France
SEANo99Anibal
Sanchez
10.8%+830
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Anibal
Sanchez
10.7%+835
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes96Miles
Mikolas
10.7%+835
Tyrone
Taylor
MILYes107Andrew
Heaney
10.6%+845
Gavin
Lux
LADYes102Adrian
Houser
10.5%+850
Brandon
Belt
SFYes94Matt
Manning
10.5%+850
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Miles
Mikolas
10.4%+860
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo94Mike
Mayers
10.3%+870
Max
Stassi
LAAYes94Shane
McClanahan
10.2%+885
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes96George
Kirby
10.0%+900
J.P.
Crawford
SEAYes96Anibal
Sanchez
10.0%+900
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes96Anibal
Sanchez
10.0%+900
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo92Shane
McClanahan
10.0%+900
Elias
Diaz
COLYes108Martin
Perez
9.8%+920
Luis
Urias
MILYes107Andrew
Heaney
9.7%+930
Josh
Naylor
CLENo95Blake
Snell
9.7%+935
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes92Brady
Singer
9.6%+940
Nick
Pratto
KCYes92Zac
Gallen
9.6%+940
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo112Spenser
Watkins
9.5%+950
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo112Spenser
Watkins
9.5%+950
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Lucas
Giolito
9.5%+950
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo109Martin
Perez
9.5%+950
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes109Jose
Urena
9.5%+955
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo101Dylan
Bundy
9.5%+955
Brian
Anderson
MIAYes94Cole
Irvin
9.4%+960
Jo
Adell
LAAYes94Shane
McClanahan
9.4%+960
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo99George
Kirby
9.3%+975
Gio
Urshela
MINYes101Framber
Valdez
9.2%+985
Justin
Turner
LADNo107Adrian
Houser
9.1%+995
Kerry
Carpenter
DETYes94Logan
Webb
9.1%+1005
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo96Cal
Quantrill
9.0%+1005
Harold
Ramirez
TBNo94Mike
Mayers
8.9%+1025
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Miles
Mikolas
8.8%+1030
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes110Spenser
Watkins
8.7%+1050
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLNo92Mitch
Keller
8.7%+1050
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Dylan
Bundy
8.7%+1050
Sheldon
Neuse
OAKYes94Jesus
Luzardo
8.6%+1055
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Logan
Webb
8.5%+1070
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo99Brayan
Bello
8.5%+1070
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Cal
Quantrill
8.4%+1090
Ben
Gamel
PITYes95Kyle
Wright
8.4%+1090
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes94Logan
Webb
8.3%+1105
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes92Brady
Singer
8.1%+1125
Aristides
Aquino
CINYes110Cristopher
Sanchez
8.1%+1130
Elehuris
Montero
COLYes108Martin
Perez
8.0%+1150
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Dylan
Bundy
7.9%+1165
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Dylan
Bundy
7.9%+1165
Peyton
Burdick
MIAYes94Cole
Irvin
7.9%+1175
Seby
Zavala
CHWNo112Spenser
Watkins
7.8%+1185
Whit
Merrifield
TORNo99Brayan
Bello
7.7%+1190
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes96George
Kirby
7.7%+1200
Tommy
Edman
STLYes96Luke
Farrell
7.7%+1200
Keibert
Ruiz
WSHYes96George
Kirby
7.7%+1200
Tucupita
Marcano
PITYes95Kyle
Wright
7.6%+1210
Kolten
Wong
MILNo102Andrew
Heaney
7.6%+1215
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes94Logan
Webb
7.5%+1225
Jared
Walsh
LAANo92Shane
McClanahan
7.5%+1225
Taylor
Walls
TBYes92Mike
Mayers
7.4%+1250
Manuel
Margot
TBNo94Mike
Mayers
7.4%+1255
Ryan
McMahon
COLNo109Martin
Perez
7.3%+1265
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo92Mitch
Keller
7.2%+1280
Donovan
Solano
CINYes110Cristopher
Sanchez
7.2%+1290
Jose
Barrero
CINYes110Cristopher
Sanchez
7.2%+1290
Myles
Straw
CLEYes96Blake
Snell
7.2%+1290
Miguel
Rojas
MIAYes94Cole
Irvin
7.0%+1320
Jon
Berti
MIAYes94Cole
Irvin
7.0%+1320
Nick
Allen
OAKYes94Jesus
Luzardo
7.0%+1320
Christian
Arroyo
BOSNo99Jose
Berrios
7.0%+1340
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes96Luke
Farrell
6.9%+1350
Christian
Yelich
MILNo102Andrew
Heaney
6.9%+1350
Omar
Narvaez
MILNo102Andrew
Heaney
6.9%+1350
Nick
Gordon
MINNo102Framber
Valdez
6.9%+1350
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo112Spenser
Watkins
6.9%+1350
Robbie
Grossman
ATLYes95Mitch
Keller
6.8%+1365
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes95Kyle
Wright
6.8%+1365
Riley
Greene
DETYes94Logan
Webb
6.8%+1375