MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/29/22

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Aug 29th, 2022
The public emphatically believes the Dodgers will cover on the runline tonight in Miami, but how does our model see that one playing out?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or a moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins

Marlins +1.5 (+118) - 2 Stars

We're set for a pitcher's duel in South Beach, and that can only help the struggling Marlins offense.

Pablo Lopez will toe the bump for Miami, and outside of a rough patch earlier this month, he's been sensational in 2022. His 3.66 ERA is supported by a 3.71 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and he's yielded just a 35.0% hard-hit rate.

On the other side, Tony Gonsolin appears to be having a better season for the Dodgers behind a 2.77 ERA. However, his 3.77 SIERA is higher than Lopez's, and with just a 12.1% soft contact rate, Gonsolin's largely been playing with fire all season and has benefitted from a .201 BABIP, the lowest mark among qualified starters. He also has an 84.3% strand rate, the highest clip among starters.

There's no doubt L.A. brings the better offense into this one, but it should be a low-scoring affair with solid arms on both sides. With that the case, it makes too much sense to take a run of cushion with the Fish in this spot at just 45.9% implied probability.

Our model thinks Miami covers that spread 56.4% of the time. With 89% of bets believing the Dodgers cover the 1.5-run spread against an ace, the sharp side is the home side.

Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins

Over 8.5 (-122) - 2 Stars

Even at this modest projected total in Minnesota, our model likes the over.

The public does, too -- 68% of the handle is on the over.

A pair of mediocre right-handers will be on the mound tonight. Dylan Bundy will go for the Twins, and we know him well. His lack of velocity has led to difficulty getting punchouts (17.0% rate), and a massive 44.5% flyball rate leaves him prone to blowup starts at any point.

Brayan Bello will toe the slab for the Red Sox, and he's actually the reason why I'm fading the four-star conviction the model has to back the Twins. Bello's 7.36 ERA is masking a 3.76 SIERA, and his 67.6% groundball rate is phenomenal.

However, when Bello departs, he'll give way to a Boston bullpen that's got the 10th-highest xFIP in baseball (4.29) over the last 30 days.

I actually believe Boston has the starting pitching edge, but their bullpen is always an adventure. I'd rather just bet the over, which our model pegs to exceed nine runs 63.4% of the time.