3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Thursday 9/1/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Rich Hill, P, Red Sox ($8,100)
On tonight's three-game main slate, Spencer Strider and Brandon Woodruff figure to soak up the vast majority of draft percentage at pitcher. That's also where I'll go in a lot of my lineups. But If you want to save a little salary, Rich Hill isn't a bad dart throw.
Hill doesn't offer the same floor/ceiling combination that Strider and Woodruff do, but he's still got some juice left in the tank. He flashed that upside in a 64-point masterpiece last time out, and while we obviously can't expect that kind of performance today, he has been pretty solid of late, pitching to a 20.0% strikeout rate and 10.4% swinging-strike rate over his previous 10 starts. He can have some success against the Texas Rangers.
Admittedly, I won't go here much, but our model has Hill pegged for 24.7 FanDuel points and projects him as the third-best point-per-dollar arm. If you are desperate for a low-salary pitcher, Hill is the best option.
Eddie Rosario, OF, Braves ($2,200)
The Atlanta Braves are once again on the stacking radar, and they're taking on another meh righty, meaning Eddie Rosario should be in the lineup.
The Braves are hosting Chad Kuhl. The owner of a 5.01 SIERA and 16.6% strikeout rate, Kuhl just isn't a good pitcher. Left-handed hitters have mauled him for a .365 wOBA, 40.1% fly-ball rate and 1.53 dingers per nine. Kuhl has actually allowed a worse wOBA on the road (.386) than at Coors (.323).
Rosario -- who has put up a 43.8% fly-ball rate against righties -- hit eighth last night but was up in the six hole in his two previous starts. No matter where he winds up, he's a valuable salary-saver who still gives you exposure to a Braves attack that boasts a 5.18 implied total, the night's second-best (as of early Thursday). His $2,200 salary is a big help when it comes to trying to jam in Strider or Woodruff.
Franchy Cordero, OF, Red Sox ($2,500)
The slate's top implied total belongs to the Boston Red Sox, who show a 5.23 clip against righty Glenn Otto.
Otto has mustered a mere 16.9% strikeout rate across 99 2/3 frames en route to an ugly 5.20 SIERA. He surrendered four runs to the Detroit Tigers in his last start. While he's shown some reverse-splits tendencies in 2022, Otto still has a tough time with lefties, and he should be in for a rough one at Fenway.
Franchy Cordero might be the lowest-salaried Boston starter. His season-long numbers aren't too sexy, but he's been red-hot since the break, generating a .379 wOBA and 50.0% fly-ball rate in the second half.
We project Cordero for 10.0 FanDuel points and rate him as the fourth-best point-per-dollar bat among those salaried under $3,000.
