MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 9/1/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Alex Verdugo To Record an RBI (+135)
With a favorable matchup, the Boston Red Sox should be able to get some offense going tonight.
The Sox come in with a 5.31 implied team total and are at home to take on the Texas Rangers, who will have Glenn Otto on the mound. This season, we've seen Otto struggle versus both types of hitters, putting virtually all of the Red Sox hitters in a good spot.
Otto comes in allowing a 5.12 xFIP, 1.06 HR/9, a 13.8% walk rate, a 37.7% fly-ball rate, and a 16.5% strikeout rate to left-handed hitters. He isn't much of a threat on the mound, can't strike out many hitters, walks too many, and allows too many fly balls. It's a dangerous combination that can lead to plenty of runs for the opposing team.
We turn to Alex Verdugo, who has been hot as of late with an active six-game hitting streak, where three of those games were multi-hit games. For the season, Verdugo is carrying a 101 wRC+, a .316 wOBA, an 11.9% strikeout rate, a 35.6% fly-ball rate, and a 32.8% hard-contact rate.
All of those numbers are rather modest overall but have been increasing recently. In August, Verdugo had a 148 wRC+, a .382 wOBA, a 40.9% fly-ball rate, and a 37.9% hard-contact rate in this split. He's a consistent hitter who doesn't waste chances at the plate and will always be able to put the ball in play and drive in runs.
Michael Harris II To Record an RBI (+120)
The Atlanta Braves have a 5.18 implied team total and can pile up runs in a hurry.
Their lineup has plenty of options to pick from and tonight, Michael Harris II To Record an RBI is worth considering. The rookie has been elite for the Braves, sporting a 152 wRC+, a .394 wOBA, a .257 ISO, a 40.4% hard-contact rate, and a 27.9% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. He's been awesome in this split -- there's no other way to put it.
Harris is taking on Chad Kuhl, who is allowing a .487 SLG, .365 wOBA, 5.21 xFIP, 1.53 HR/9, 12.9% walk rate, 40.1% fly-ball rate, and 37.8% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters this season. It's truly an elite matchup for Harris, so a little sprinkle on Harris 2+ RBI (+430) could be worth it, too.
