MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 9/5/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
MIL Ryan
Feltner
11.5 6.04 56.1% 40.0% 26.2% 15.7% 8.7%
COL Adrian
Houser
11.5 5.46 46.4% 30.8% 18.6% 10.2% 5.2%
NYM Mitch
Keller
8.5 4.91 36.8% 22.5% 12.4% 6.2% 2.9%
STL Anibal
Sanchez
8.0 4.81 35.1% 21.1% 11.4% 5.6% 2.5%
TOR Mike
Baumann
9.0 4.79 34.7% 20.8% 11.2% 5.5% 2.5%
LAA Tyler
Alexander
8.5 4.76 34.2% 20.4% 11.0% 5.4% 2.4%
SD Ryne
Nelson
8.0 4.70 33.2% 19.5% 10.4% 5.0% 2.2%
NYY Chris
Archer
8.5 4.69 33.0% 19.4% 10.3% 5.0% 2.2%
LAD Logan
Webb
8.0 4.62 31.8% 18.5% 9.7% 4.6% 2.0%
HOU Martin
Perez
8.0 4.40 28.0% 15.6% 7.9% 3.6% 1.5%
BAL Jose
Berrios
9.0 4.21 24.8% 13.4% 6.5% 2.8% 1.1%
CLE Brady
Singer
7.5 3.91 20.1% 10.2% 4.6% 1.9% 0.7%
CHW Marco
Gonzales
7.5 3.81 18.6% 9.2% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6%
MIN Jameson
Taillon
8.5 3.81 18.6% 9.2% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6%
TB Michael
Wacha
7.5 3.78 18.1% 8.9% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6%
DET Jose
Suarez
8.5 3.74 17.6% 8.5% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5%
BOS Luis
Patino
7.5 3.72 17.3% 8.4% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5%
SEA Lance
Lynn
7.5 3.69 16.8% 8.1% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5%
TEX Hunter
Brown
8.0 3.60 15.6% 7.3% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%
KC Triston
McKenzie
7.5 3.59 15.5% 7.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4%
PIT Taijuan
Walker
8.5 3.59 15.5% 7.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4%
SF Andrew
Heaney
8.0 3.38 12.7% 5.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3%
ARI Blake
Snell
8.0 3.30 11.7% 5.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
WSH Jack
Flaherty
8.0 3.19 10.4% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Blake
Snell
ARI 7.5 94.1% 86.9% 76.0% 62.3% 47.7% 33.9% 22.5%
Kevin
Gausman
BAL 6.7 90.3% 80.1% 66.3% 50.9% 36.1% 23.6% 14.3%
Andrew
Heaney
SF 6.0 84.9% 71.5% 55.4% 39.4% 25.6% 15.3% 8.4%
Brady
Singer
CLE 5.8 82.6% 68.2% 51.5% 35.5% 22.4% 12.9% 6.8%
Logan
Webb
LAD 5.7 82.1% 67.4% 50.7% 34.7% 21.7% 12.4% 6.5%
Triston
McKenzie
KC 5.7 81.6% 66.7% 49.8% 33.9% 21.1% 12.0% 6.3%
Lance
Lynn
SEA 5.3 78.0% 61.7% 44.3% 28.9% 17.1% 9.3% 4.6%
Martin
Perez
HOU 5.3 77.5% 61.0% 43.7% 28.3% 16.7% 8.9% 4.4%
Jose
Berrios
BAL 5.1 74.2% 56.8% 39.3% 24.5% 13.9% 7.1% 3.4%
Jose
Suarez
DET 4.9 72.4% 54.5% 37.0% 22.6% 12.5% 6.3% 2.9%
Jameson
Taillon
MIN 4.6 67.6% 48.9% 31.6% 18.3% 9.6% 4.6% 2.0%
Marco
Gonzales
CHW 4.5 65.4% 46.4% 29.4% 16.6% 8.5% 3.9% 1.7%
Hunter
Brown
TEX 4.5 65.3% 46.2% 29.2% 16.5% 8.4% 3.9% 1.6%
Michael
Wacha
TB 4.4 64.6% 45.5% 28.5% 16.0% 8.1% 3.7% 1.6%
Ryne
Nelson
SD 4.4 64.1% 44.9% 28.0% 15.6% 7.9% 3.6% 1.5%
Taijuan
Walker
PIT 4.3 62.6% 43.3% 26.7% 14.7% 7.3% 3.2% 1.3%
Jordan
Lyles
TOR 4.2 60.8% 41.4% 25.0% 13.5% 6.5% 2.9% 1.1%
Mitch
Keller
NYM 4.0 56.1% 36.5% 21.0% 10.8% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8%
Adrian
Houser
COL 3.9 55.3% 35.7% 20.4% 10.4% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7%
Anibal
Sanchez
STL 3.9 53.7% 34.2% 19.2% 9.6% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6%
Jack
Flaherty
WSH 3.7 51.4% 32.1% 17.6% 8.5% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5%
Ryan
Feltner
MIL 3.6 49.1% 29.9% 16.0% 7.6% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4%
Chris
Archer
NYY 3.6 48.1% 29.0% 15.3% 7.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4%
Luis
Patino
BOS 3.4 44.2% 25.6% 12.9% 5.8% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%
Tyler
Alexander
LAA 3.3 42.8% 24.5% 12.2% 5.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
Mike
Baumann
TOR 1.3 4.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Evan
Longoria
SF Yes 107 Andrew
Heaney
27.7% +260
Paul
Goldschmidt
STL No 91 Anibal
Sanchez
26.3% +280
Teoscar
Hernandez
TOR No 112 Mike
Baumann
25.6% +290
Nolan
Arenado
STL No 91 Anibal
Sanchez
25.2% +295
Rowdy
Tellez
MIL Yes 109 Ryan
Feltner
25.1% +300
Shohei
Ohtani
LAA No 108 Tyler
Alexander
25.0% +300
Anthony
Santander
BAL Yes 110 Jose
Berrios
24.2% +315
Adolis
Garcia
TEX No 101 Hunter
Brown
23.9% +320
Mike
Trout
LAA Yes 103 Tyler
Alexander
23.9% +320
Teoscar
Hernandez
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
23.7% +325
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
23.7% +325
Anthony
Rizzo
NYY Yes 109 Chris
Archer
23.6% +325
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYY No 103 Chris
Archer
23.3% +330
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TOR No 112 Mike
Baumann
23.1% +330
Ryan
Mountcastle
BAL No 112 Kevin
Gausman
23.1% +330
Willy
Adames
MIL No 108 Ryan
Feltner
23.1% +335
Kole
Calhoun
TEX Yes 102 Hunter
Brown
23.0% +335
George
Springer
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
22.6% +340
Danny
Jansen
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
22.6% +340
Luis
Urias
MIL No 108 Ryan
Feltner
22.6% +345
Aaron
Judge
NYY No 103 Chris
Archer
22.3% +350
Manny
Machado
SD No 96 Ryne
Nelson
22.2% +350
Danny
Jansen
TOR No 112 Mike
Baumann
22.1% +355
Trevor
Story
BOS No 94 Luis
Patino
21.9% +355
Eugenio
Suarez
SEA No 99 Lance
Lynn
21.7% +360
Matt
Chapman
TOR No 112 Mike
Baumann
21.5% +365
Ryan
Mountcastle
BAL No 112 Jose
Berrios
21.5% +365
Tyler
O'Neill
STL No 91 Anibal
Sanchez
20.9% +380
Anthony
Santander
BAL Yes 110 Kevin
Gausman
20.4% +390
George
Springer
TOR No 112 Mike
Baumann
20.3% +390
Nolan
Gorman
STL Yes 97 Anibal
Sanchez
19.7% +410
Carlos
Correa
MIN No 103 Jameson
Taillon
19.7% +410
Mitch
Haniger
SEA No 99 Lance
Lynn
19.6% +410
Corey
Seager
TEX Yes 102 Hunter
Brown
19.3% +420
Hunter
Renfroe
MIL No 108 Ryan
Feltner
19.2% +420
Jose
Altuve
HOU Yes 101 Martin
Perez
19.2% +420
Ramon
Urias
BAL No 112 Jose
Berrios
19.1% +425
Kolten
Wong
MIL Yes 109 Ryan
Feltner
19.0% +425
Cal
Raleigh
SEA Yes 96 Lance
Lynn
19.0% +425
Oneil
Cruz
PIT Yes 95 Taijuan
Walker
18.8% +430
Randal
Grichuk
COL No 108 Adrian
Houser
18.6% +440
C.J.
Cron
COL No 108 Adrian
Houser
18.6% +440
Pete
Alonso
NYM No 92 Mitch
Keller
18.6% +440
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KC No 92 Triston
McKenzie
18.6% +440
Gavin
Sheets
CHW No 96 Marco
Gonzales
18.4% +440
Rafael
Devers
BOS Yes 92 Luis
Patino
18.4% +445
Kyle
Garlick
MIN No 103 Jameson
Taillon
17.9% +460
Jose
Ramirez
CLE Yes 92 Brady
Singer
17.8% +460
Mookie
Betts
LAD No 107 Logan
Webb
17.8% +460
Jack
Suwinski
PIT Yes 95 Taijuan
Walker
17.7% +465
Eric
Haase
DET Yes 103 Jose
Suarez
17.6% +470
Freddie
Freeman
LAD Yes 102 Logan
Webb
17.5% +470
Julio
Rodriguez
SEA No 99 Lance
Lynn
17.4% +475
Josh
Donaldson
NYY No 103 Chris
Archer
17.3% +480
Matt
Chapman
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
17.1% +485
Jonah
Heim
TEX Yes 102 Hunter
Brown
16.9% +495
Luke
Voit
WSH No 91 Jack
Flaherty
16.8% +495
Wilmer
Flores
SF Yes 107 Andrew
Heaney
16.7% +500
Josh
Bell
SD Yes 95 Ryne
Nelson
16.5% +505
Juan
Soto
SD Yes 95 Ryne
Nelson
16.5% +505
Bo
Bichette
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
16.5% +505
Christian
Yelich
MIL Yes 109 Ryan
Feltner
16.4% +510
Jose
Abreu
CHW Yes 99 Marco
Gonzales
16.4% +510
Eloy
Jimenez
CHW Yes 99 Marco
Gonzales
16.4% +510
Taylor
Ward
LAA Yes 103 Tyler
Alexander
16.2% +515
Trea
Turner
LAD No 107 Logan
Webb
15.9% +530
Adley
Rutschman
BAL Yes 110 Jose
Berrios
15.8% +530
Jesus
Aguilar
BAL No 112 Kevin
Gausman
15.8% +535
Bo
Bichette
TOR No 112 Mike
Baumann
15.8% +535
A.J.
Pollock
CHW Yes 99 Marco
Gonzales
15.7% +535
Franchy
Cordero
BOS Yes 92 Luis
Patino
15.5% +545
Christian
Walker
ARI Yes 96 Blake
Snell
15.3% +550
Salvador
Perez
KC No 92 Triston
McKenzie
15.2% +555
Kyle
Tucker
HOU No 102 Martin
Perez
15.1% +560
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SF No 102 Andrew
Heaney
15.1% +560
Cedric
Mullins
BAL Yes 110 Jose
Berrios
15.1% +560
Yoan
Moncada
CHW Yes 99 Marco
Gonzales
15.0% +565
Andrew
Vaughn
CHW Yes 99 Marco
Gonzales
15.0% +565
MJ
Melendez
KC Yes 92 Triston
McKenzie
14.9% +570
Nick
Pratto
KC Yes 92 Triston
McKenzie
14.9% +570
Dan
Vogelbach
NYM Yes 95 Mitch
Keller
14.7% +580
Michael
Chavis
PIT No 92 Taijuan
Walker
14.6% +585
Will
Smith
LAD No 107 Logan
Webb
14.5% +590
Jorge
Mateo
BAL No 112 Jose
Berrios
14.3% +600
Ty
France
SEA No 99 Lance
Lynn
14.2% +600
Joey
Gallo
LAD Yes 102 Logan
Webb
14.2% +605
Cody
Bellinger
LAD Yes 102 Logan
Webb
14.2% +605
Max
Stassi
LAA Yes 103 Tyler
Alexander
14.1% +610
Jurickson
Profar
SD Yes 95 Ryne
Nelson
14.0% +615
Mike
Yastrzemski
SF No 102 Andrew
Heaney
14.0% +615
Joey
Meneses
WSH No 91 Jack
Flaherty
13.9% +620
Andrew
McCutchen
MIL No 108 Ryan
Feltner
13.9% +620
Brandon
Drury
SD No 96 Ryne
Nelson
13.9% +620
J.D.
Davis
SF Yes 107 Andrew
Heaney
13.8% +625
Thairo
Estrada
SF Yes 107 Andrew
Heaney
13.8% +625
David
Peralta
TB Yes 92 Michael
Wacha
13.7% +630
Robert
Refsnyder
BOS No 94 Luis
Patino
13.6% +635
Starling
Marte
NYM No 92 Mitch
Keller
13.4% +645
Yordan
Alvarez
HOU No 102 Martin
Perez
13.4% +645
Bryan
Reynolds
PIT Yes 95 Taijuan
Walker
13.4% +650
Stone
Garrett
ARI Yes 96 Blake
Snell
13.3% +650
Elias
Diaz
COL No 108 Adrian
Houser
13.1% +660
Martin
Maldonado
HOU Yes 101 Martin
Perez
13.1% +660
Chas
McCormick
HOU Yes 101 Martin
Perez
13.1% +660
Marcus
Semien
TEX No 101 Hunter
Brown
13.1% +660
Christian
Bethancourt
TB No 94 Michael
Wacha
13.0% +670
Isaac
Paredes
TB No 94 Michael
Wacha
13.0% +670
Tommy
Edman
STL Yes 97 Anibal
Sanchez
12.9% +675
Lars
Nootbaar
STL Yes 97 Anibal
Sanchez
12.9% +675
Elvis
Andrus
CHW Yes 99 Marco
Gonzales
12.9% +675
Carlos
Santana
SEA Yes 96 Lance
Lynn
12.8% +680
Alejandro
Kirk
TOR No 112 Mike
Baumann
12.8% +680
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEX Yes 102 Hunter
Brown
12.8% +685
Brandon
Nimmo
NYM Yes 95 Mitch
Keller
12.7% +685
Rodolfo
Castro
PIT Yes 95 Taijuan
Walker
12.7% +685
Gary
Sanchez
MIN No 103 Jameson
Taillon
12.6% +690
Luis
Rengifo
LAA Yes 103 Tyler
Alexander
12.6% +695
Tommy
Pham
BOS No 94 Luis
Patino
12.3% +710
Randy
Arozarena
TB No 94 Michael
Wacha
12.3% +710
Corey
Dickerson
STL Yes 97 Anibal
Sanchez
12.2% +715
Rougned
Odor
BAL Yes 110 Jose
Berrios
12.1% +730
Francisco
Lindor
NYM Yes 95 Mitch
Keller
12.0% +730
Jesus
Aguilar
BAL No 112 Jose
Berrios
12.0% +735
Lane
Thomas
WSH No 91 Jack
Flaherty
12.0% +735
Jorge
Mateo
BAL No 112 Kevin
Gausman
12.0% +735
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARI Yes 96 Blake
Snell
11.9% +745
Willi
Castro
DET Yes 103 Jose
Suarez
11.8% +745
Josh
Naylor
CLE Yes 92 Brady
Singer
11.7% +755
Justin
Turner
LAD No 107 Logan
Webb
11.5% +765
Riley
Greene
DET No 108 Jose
Suarez
11.5% +770
Alejandro
Kirk
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
11.2% +795
Nick
Gordon
MIN Yes 109 Jameson
Taillon
11.2% +795
Garrett
Mitchell
MIL Yes 109 Ryan
Feltner
11.2% +795
Ketel
Marte
ARI Yes 96 Blake
Snell
11.1% +800
Carson
Kelly
ARI Yes 96 Blake
Snell
11.1% +800
Javier
Baez
DET Yes 103 Jose
Suarez
11.0% +805
Spencer
Torkelson
DET Yes 103 Jose
Suarez
11.0% +805
Andres
Gimenez
CLE Yes 92 Brady
Singer
11.0% +810
Xander
Bogaerts
BOS No 94 Luis
Patino
11.0% +810
Cal
Mitchell
PIT Yes 95 Taijuan
Walker
10.6% +840
Austin
Slater
SF Yes 107 Andrew
Heaney
10.6% +845
Adley
Rutschman
BAL Yes 110 Kevin
Gausman
10.4% +860
Jose
Miranda
MIN No 103 Jameson
Taillon
10.4% +860
Ramon
Urias
BAL No 112 Kevin
Gausman
10.4% +865
Hunter
Dozier
KC No 92 Triston
McKenzie
10.1% +890
Trey
Mancini
HOU Yes 101 Martin
Perez
10.0% +895
Alex
Bregman
HOU Yes 101 Martin
Perez
10.0% +895
Jeremy
Pena
HOU Yes 101 Martin
Perez
10.0% +895
Nelson
Cruz
WSH No 91 Jack
Flaherty
10.0% +900
Abraham
Toro
SEA Yes 96 Lance
Lynn
10.0% +900
Brandon
Crawford
SF No 102 Andrew
Heaney
9.6% +940
Harold
Ramirez
TB No 94 Michael
Wacha
9.6% +945
Lourdes
Gurriel
TOR No 112 Mike
Baumann
9.5% +950
Santiago
Espinal
TOR No 112 Mike
Baumann
9.5% +950
Max
Kepler
MIN Yes 109 Jameson
Taillon
9.5% +955
Omar
Narvaez
MIL Yes 109 Ryan
Feltner
9.5% +955
Kerry
Carpenter
DET No 108 Jose
Suarez
9.4% +960
Jo
Adell
LAA Yes 103 Tyler
Alexander
9.4% +965
Keibert
Ruiz
WSH Yes 97 Jack
Flaherty
9.3% +975
Trent
Grisham
SD Yes 95 Ryne
Nelson
9.1% +995
Jake
Cronenworth
SD Yes 95 Ryne
Nelson
9.1% +995
Max
Muncy
LAD Yes 102 Logan
Webb
8.9% +1020
Yandy
Diaz
TB No 94 Michael
Wacha
8.9% +1025
Rougned
Odor
BAL Yes 110 Kevin
Gausman
8.7% +1050
Cedric
Mullins
BAL Yes 110 Kevin
Gausman
8.7% +1050
Michael
Taylor
KC No 92 Triston
McKenzie
8.7% +1050
Austin
Hedges
CLE No 92 Brady
Singer
8.7% +1050
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLE No 92 Brady
Singer
8.7% +1050
Matthew
Duffy
LAA Yes 103 Tyler
Alexander
8.5% +1070
Jesse
Winker
SEA Yes 96 Lance
Lynn
8.5% +1080
Eduardo
Escobar
NYM Yes 95 Mitch
Keller
8.4% +1090
Brendan
Rodgers
COL No 108 Adrian
Houser
8.4% +1090
Jose
Trevino
NYY No 103 Chris
Archer
8.0% +1145
Santiago
Espinal
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
7.8% +1185
Ryan
McMahon
COL Yes 109 Adrian
Houser
7.8% +1190
Mike
Toglia
COL Yes 109 Adrian
Houser
7.8% +1190
Andrew
Velazquez
LAA Yes 103 Tyler
Alexander
7.7% +1205
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOU Yes 101 Martin
Perez
7.5% +1230
Alex
Verdugo
BOS Yes 92 Luis
Patino
7.4% +1250
Richie
Palacios
CLE Yes 92 Brady
Singer
7.4% +1250
Harold
Castro
DET No 108 Jose
Suarez
7.3% +1275
Myles
Straw
CLE No 92 Brady
Singer
7.2% +1280
DJ
LeMahieu
NYY No 103 Chris
Archer
7.2% +1285
Luis
Garcia
WSH No 91 Jack
Flaherty
7.2% +1295
Gunnar
Henderson
BAL Yes 110 Jose
Berrios
6.9% +1345
Lourdes
Gurriel
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
6.9% +1350
Charlie
Blackmon
COL Yes 109 Adrian
Houser
6.9% +1355
Oswaldo
Cabrera
NYY Yes 109 Chris
Archer
6.9% +1355
Ben
Gamel
PIT Yes 95 Taijuan
Walker
6.8% +1365
Drew
Waters
KC Yes 92 Triston
McKenzie
6.6% +1405
Manuel
Margot
TB No 94 Michael
Wacha
6.6% +1410
Yasmani
Grandal
CHW Yes 99 Marco
Gonzales
6.5% +1430
Josh
Rojas
ARI No 95 Blake
Snell
6.4% +1450
Jake
McCarthy
ARI No 95 Blake
Snell
6.4% +1450