3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 9/13/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Adley Rutschman To Hit a Home Run (+430)
The Baltimore Orioles could see plenty of runs scored tonight due to a favorable matchup.
With a 4.63 implied run total, the Orioles are one of the top projected teams on the slate. Baltimore is taking on the Washington Nationals in a very important series because they are 5.5 games out of the wild card and are in need of some wins.
The Nationals will have Cory Abbott on the mound, a pitcher with only 32.0 innings pitched this season. The sample size is small, but none of what he has shown has been anywhere near inspiring. Abbott comes in with a .508 SLG, .366 wOBA, 6.51 xFIP, 2.70 HR/9, 12.2% walk rate, and 76.6% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters.
Those are some of the worst numbers on the slate, and he is the perfect pitcher to target for player props. We turn to Adley Rutschman, who is rocking a 151 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .228 ISO, and 40.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.
We should see loads of offense from the Orioles tonight, so I'm also adding Rutschman To Record an RBI (+145).
Jordan Montgomery Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114)
Jordan Montgomery has been absolute nails since being traded to the St. Louis Cardinals.
A change of scenery for Montgomery has allowed him to be one of the best pitchers in the second half of the season. He has a chance to continue that tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers, who come in with a 26.0% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the league.
While Montgomery isn't normally known as a big-time strikeout pitcher, he has turned things around since becoming a Cardinal. On the season, Montgomery has a modest 21.3% strikeout rate, which is below the league average of 22.3%.
However, in his seven starts with his new team, Montgomery has posted a 25.0% strikeout rate or higher four times. This has allowed him to rack up six strikeouts or more in each of those four starts. Monty should be able to continue that trend tonight versus a free-swinging Brewers lineup.
Carlos Correa 2+ Total Bases (-110)
The Minnesota Twins are another team with a great matchup tonight.
Kris Bubic is on the mound for the Kansas City Royals, and that gives the Twins a 4.80 implied run total. A high expectation for scoring runs means there are plenty of player props to choose from.
Bubic comes in allowing a .414 SLG, .331 wOBA, 4.27 xFIP, 0.99 HR/9, 19.3% strikeout rate, 34.5% fly-ball rate, and 32.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. What's most interesting is that Bubic has a .320 BABIP versus righties. Tons of balls are in play, leading to plenty of chances for hitters.
Carlos Correa fits the bill with a 145 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .196 ISO, 17.9% strikeout rate, 43.3% fly-ball rate, and 35.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Correa doesn't waste too many chances at the plate and puts the ball in play. He comes in hot with hits in seven of his last eight games, where four games were multi-hit games.
