MLB

3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Friday 9/16/22

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas Sep 16th, 2022

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.

Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.

Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?

Frankie Montas, P, Yankees ($8,300)

Frankie Montas has a nice matchup today against the Milwaukee Brewers and stands out among the lower-salaried pitchers.

Milwaukee's active roster owns the seventh-highest strikeout rate (23.7%) this season, and their strikeout rate is up at 24.9% over the past 30 days.

Montas hasn't lit the world on fire since coming to the New York Yankees, but he's had a pretty rough schedule since the trade. He's missed plenty of bats lately, posting a gaudy 16.2% swinging-strike rate over his last three outings, so he can take advantage of the Brewers' swing-and-miss ways.

We project Montas for 32.5 FanDuel points. He's our second-best point-per-dollar pitcher.

Gavin Sheets, 1B/OF, White Sox ($2,100)

Gavin Sheets is taking on Matt Manning.

Manning has now made eight starts since coming off the IL. He's got a 4.48 xFIP and 19.1% strikeout rate in those outings while allowing a 42.1% fly-ball rate. In short, Manning hasn't been as poor as he was in 2021, but he hasn't been that good, either.

Sheets will have the platoon advantage, and he's been good in the second half, sporting a .340 wOBA since the break. He's hit fifth in each of his past four starts, so he should be in a meaty spot in the lineup tonight.

Our model has Sheets scoring 11.3 FanDuel points and rates him as the fourth-best point-per-dollar bat (as of early Friday).

Jurickson Profar, OF, Padres ($2,400)

Jurickson Profar has hit leadoff in three consecutive games for the San Diego Padres. Any $2,400 leadoff hitter should be on our radar, and Profar is particularly appealing today with the Padres holding a 4.75 implied total versus Madison Bumgarner.

MadBum has pitched to a 4.80 SIERA and 16.0% strikeout rate this season. He's running on fumes. Righties have rocked him for a .366 wOBA, 39.3% hard-hit rate and 41.5% fly-ball rate.

Profar, a switch-hitter, is walking more than he's striking out against southpaws, and we forecast him to amass 13.6 FanDuel points. He is our second-best point-per-dollar hitter.