MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/20/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays
Astros Moneyline (+128): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
It's not often we get the Houston Astros as underdogs, but that's the case today as they're on the road against Shane McClanahan and the Tampa Bay Rays.
McClanahan is having an outstanding season, but he hasn't been quite as great in the second half. Since the break, he owns a 24.0% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate, leading to a 3.16 xFIP. While those are quality numbers, they aren't nearly as stellar as his first-half marks of a 35.7% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 1.99 xFIP.
On top of that, this is a really tough matchup. Houston's offense ranks seventh in wOBA (.334) against lefties with the lowest strikeout rate (17.5%) in the split.
Houston is sending Cristian Javier to the bump. Javier has pitched to a 3.15 SIERA and 32.8% strikeout rate. He's permitted more than two earned runs only once across his last eight starts, and that one time was a three-run outing. Dude is dealing right now.
Houston's +128 moneyline price implies win odds of 43.9%. We think Houston wins this game 48.0% of the time. Taking the Astros on the moneyline is a one-star bet (one-unit recommendation), per our model.
Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Tigers +1.5 (-125): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Tigers Moneyline (+166): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
This is something I haven't written often in 2022 -- our model likes the Detroit Tigers.
Detroit is priced as a +166 moneyline 'dog today at the Baltimore Orioles, but there are reasons to be into Detroit for this one.
A big reason is that Baltimore is giving the ball to Austin Voth. While Voth is a righty and righties have been a nightmare for the Tigers, Voth isn't good. He's striking out just 20.5% of hitters while permitting a 41.0% fly-ball rate. He's been particularly awful at home, surrendering a .361 wOBA in the split.
On top of all that, Voth is getting the Tigers at a bad time, as Detroit is 20th in wOBA (.300) in the last 30 days. A .300 wOBA isn't much to write home about for most teams; it's a big improvement for the Tigers.
Joey Wentz is throwing for Detroit. Wentz has pitched just 17 1/3 innings in the bigs, but they've gone OK, with him registering a 3.87 SIERA. In 48 1/3 frames at Triple-A this year, he fanned 27.0% of hitters with a 14.9% swinging-strike rate. The matchup is a good one for Wentz. Baltimore's offense is in a rut of late, sitting 25th in wOBA (.290) over the last 30 days.
We do agree that Baltimore should be favored; we just like the Tigers' chances considerably more than oddsmakers do.
We hand the Tigers win odds of 47.6%. The implied win odds at their +166 moneyline price are just 37.6%. We also see value on the runline, giving Detroit a 65.1% chance to cover.
