MLB Betting Guide: Monday 9/26/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 8.0 (-105): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
We have just four games on the docket, so the options are limited. The over here is the best bet of the night, per our model.
Roansy Contreras and Chase Anderson are the expected starting pitchers, and while neither offense packs much of a punch, this is a good spot for both lineups.
Anderson spent most of 2022 in Triple-A, amassing a poor 5.22 xFIP in 70 frames. Over 19 innings in The Show, he's got a 14.5% walk rate and 4.71 SIERA. He finished 2021 with a 5.28 SIERA. Since the start of 2020, he's been blasted for 2.15 jacks per nine. In short, Anderson appears to be running on empty at this point in his career.
Contreras is at the other end of his career, and the rookie has some positives in his profile -- namely a 13.0% swinging-strike rate. However, he's allowed a 40.8% fly-ball rate, and his strikeout rate is only 21.0% in the second half. He's also been kept on a short leash, completing six innings just once over his previous five starts. That should mean plenty of a Pittsburgh Pirates 'pen that is second-worst in reliever xFIP (4.78) over the last 30 days.
The Cincinnati Reds' relievers are struggling, too, sitting with the sixth-worst xFIP (4.34) in that span.
We project Pittsburgh to win by a score of 4.98-4.58. That's 9.56 total runs. We think the over cashes 59.0% of the time and mark it as a three-star bet (three-unit recommendation).
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Jays Moneyline (-116): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
We have a sweet pitching matchup tonight in Toronto between Kevin Gausman and Luis Severino. Our algorithm likes the favored Toronto Blue Jays a little more than oddsmakers do.
Gausman is having an excellent season. He's pitched to a career-best 2.96 SIERA and 15.5% swinging-strike rate. A .364 BABIP has dinged his numbers. His career average BABIP is .314, and his worst BABIP prior to this year was a .344 clip. Gausman has been really good in two meetings with the New York Yankees this year, holding them to just two earned runs across 12 2.3 innings while punching out 16.
Severino's 2022 numbers are very similar to his numbers from 2018, his last campaign with more than 12 innings pitched. He's registered a 3.36 SIERA and 27.5% strikeout rate. It's probably about the best the Yankees could've hoped for after Severino missed basically three full seasons. But Severino has a homer problem, giving up 1.38 per nine, and the Jays have scored eight total earned runs off him in their last two meetings (9 2/3 innings).
Even if Severino is dealing, he's unlikely to pitch particularly deep into the game after logging only 64 pitches in his first start off the injured list last week.
Toronto's -116 moneyline price implies win odds of 53.7%. We have the Blue Jays winning 55.4% of the time. It's not much, but it's enough for our model to give a Toronto moneyline bet a one-star rating.
