MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 9/28/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Mike Trout To Record an RBI (+125)
The Los Angeles Angels are rocking a 4.78 implied run total tonight and are in line for plenty of scoring.
A soft matchup should put the Angels in a spot to see plenty of runs cross the plate tonight and that means we want to focus on player props. The Oakland Athletics will have Adrian Martinez on the mound tonight, a pitcher who has struggled versus both lefties and righties this season.
For the year, Martinez has allowed a .520 SLG, .383 wOBA, 2.16 HR/9, 19.3% strikeout rate, and .333 BABIP against right-handed hitters. Martinez isn't a big strikeout pitcher, gives up too many home runs, and gets hit around a lot. None of that points to a pitcher we need to be worried about and thus, a pitcher we should target when he is on the slate.
We turn to Mike Trout, who comes in with a 160 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .341 ISO, 60.7% fly-ball rate, and 35.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. We're getting one of the best hitters in the league at +125 to record a single RBI. Considering the matchup, I'm adding Trout 2+ RBI (+470), it's too big of a number for an elite hitter.
Aaron Nola Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-118)
The Philadelphia Phillies need to win, period.
It's coming down to the wire for the Phillies, who are 2.5 games behind the San Diego Padres for the final Wild Card spot. The Phillies are carrying a three-game losing streak and it's now or never for them to pick up some wins. They will have their ace, Aaron Nola, on the mound tonight, and we want to take a look at his strikeout prop.
Nola is an elite pitcher with a 28.7% strikeout rate, 3.8% walk rate, and 12.2% swinging-strike rate. That strikeout rate puts him as the sixth-highest in the entire league, among qualified pitchers -- he's a stud. It's also good to see that Nola has been at or above 97 pitchers in three of his last four starts.
Tonight, he has a favorable matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who come in with a 23.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-worst in the league. That rate has jumped up to 26.5% in the split over the last 30 days.
Considering the Phillies need to win games for the Wild Card race, there should be zero reason their best pitcher -- Nola -- gets pulled from the early. This will give him plenty of time to rack up the strikeouts against a weak lineup. With that said, I'm going to sprinkle a little on Nola 9+ Strikeouts (+162).
