MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 9/29/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | Mike Baumann | 9.0 | 4.86 | 35.9% | 21.8% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| PHI | Javier Assad | 7.5 | 4.29 | 26.2% | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| LAA | Cole Irvin | 7.0 | 4.21 | 24.8% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| MIL | Braxton Garrett | 7.5 | 4.19 | 24.5% | 13.1% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| SF | Ryan Feltner | 7.0 | 4.15 | 23.9% | 12.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| BAL | Nathan Eovaldi | 9.0 | 4.14 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| DET | Jon Heasley | 7.5 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| CHW | Louie Varland | 7.5 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| MIN | Lucas Giolito | 7.5 | 3.64 | 16.1% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| SEA | Jon Gray | 7.0 | 3.60 | 15.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| KC | Eduardo Rodriguez | 7.5 | 3.59 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| TEX | Marco Gonzales | 7.0 | 3.40 | 12.9% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| MIA | Eric Lauer | 7.5 | 3.31 | 11.8% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| TB | Cal Quantrill | 6.5 | 3.30 | 11.7% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| CHC | Ranger Suarez | 7.5 | 3.21 | 10.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| CLE | Jeffrey Springs | 6.5 | 3.20 | 10.5% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| COL | Carlos Rodon | 7.0 | 2.85 | 7.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| OAK | Shohei Ohtani | 7.0 | 2.79 | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | OAK | 8.0 | 95.8% | 90.0% | 80.9% | 68.7% | 54.7% | 40.7% | 28.3% |
| Carlos Rodon | COL | 7.7 | 94.9% | 88.3% | 78.1% | 65.0% | 50.6% | 36.7% | 24.8% |
| Lucas Giolito | MIN | 6.0 | 84.4% | 70.8% | 54.6% | 38.6% | 24.9% | 14.8% | 8.1% |
| Eric Lauer | MIA | 5.8 | 82.5% | 68.0% | 51.3% | 35.4% | 22.2% | 12.8% | 6.8% |
| Jeffrey Springs | CLE | 5.6 | 80.7% | 65.5% | 48.5% | 32.7% | 20.0% | 11.3% | 5.8% |
| Jon Gray | SEA | 5.4 | 78.2% | 62.0% | 44.7% | 29.2% | 17.4% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
| Andrew Heaney | SD | 5.3 | 76.8% | 60.2% | 42.8% | 27.5% | 16.1% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| Sean Manaea | LAD | 5.0 | 73.9% | 56.5% | 38.9% | 24.2% | 13.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
| Braxton Garrett | MIL | 4.8 | 71.2% | 53.1% | 35.6% | 21.5% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | KC | 4.8 | 70.4% | 52.2% | 34.7% | 20.8% | 11.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Louie Varland | CHW | 4.7 | 69.5% | 51.1% | 33.7% | 19.9% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Ranger Suarez | CHC | 4.7 | 69.3% | 50.9% | 33.5% | 19.8% | 10.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | BAL | 4.7 | 68.7% | 50.2% | 32.8% | 19.3% | 10.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Cal Quantrill | TB | 4.5 | 65.3% | 46.2% | 29.2% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Cole Irvin | LAA | 4.4 | 63.5% | 44.3% | 27.5% | 15.3% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Marco Gonzales | TEX | 4.1 | 57.6% | 38.1% | 22.3% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Javier Assad | PHI | 3.7 | 49.5% | 30.3% | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Feltner | SF | 3.5 | 45.7% | 26.9% | 13.8% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Jon Heasley | DET | 3.3 | 41.7% | 23.6% | 11.6% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Mike Baumann | BOS | 3.0 | 34.6% | 18.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Brusdar Graterol | SD | 1.5 | 6.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | No | 103 | Javier Assad | 29.6% | +240 |
| Joc Pederson | SF | Yes | 87 | Ryan Feltner | 26.7% | +275 |
| Gavin Sheets | CHW | Yes | 99 | Louie Varland | 24.4% | +310 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | Yes | 96 | Javier Assad | 24.4% | +310 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Yes | 96 | Javier Assad | 24.4% | +310 |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | Yes | 96 | Sean Manaea | 24.2% | +315 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | 93 | Nathan Eovaldi | 23.9% | +320 |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | Yes | 93 | Mike Baumann | 23.4% | +325 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | No | 108 | Cole Irvin | 23.0% | +335 |
| Mike Trout | LAA | Yes | 103 | Cole Irvin | 22.3% | +350 |
| Brandon Drury | SD | Yes | 96 | Andrew Heaney | 21.2% | +370 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | 99 | Mike Baumann | 21.2% | +370 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | Yes | 96 | Sean Manaea | 20.7% | +385 |
| Taylor Ward | LAA | Yes | 103 | Cole Irvin | 20.7% | +385 |
| Andrew McCutchen | MIL | Yes | 103 | Braxton Garrett | 20.1% | +400 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 99 | Jeffrey Springs | 19.5% | +415 |
| Patrick Wisdom | CHC | Yes | 103 | Ranger Suarez | 19.5% | +415 |
| David Villar | SF | No | 90 | Ryan Feltner | 19.3% | +420 |
| Will Smith | LAD | Yes | 96 | Sean Manaea | 19.0% | +425 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | Yes | 90 | Carlos Rodon | 18.7% | +435 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Yes | 96 | Jon Gray | 18.4% | +445 |
| Josh Jung | TEX | Yes | 99 | Marco Gonzales | 18.3% | +445 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | No | 99 | Nathan Eovaldi | 18.0% | +455 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | No | 103 | Shohei Ohtani | 17.9% | +460 |
| Elvis Andrus | CHW | No | 98 | Louie Varland | 17.8% | +460 |
| Keston Hiura | MIL | Yes | 103 | Braxton Garrett | 17.6% | +470 |
| Michael Brosseau | MIL | Yes | 103 | Braxton Garrett | 17.6% | +470 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | MIA | Yes | 103 | Eric Lauer | 17.6% | +470 |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | Yes | 93 | Nathan Eovaldi | 17.4% | +475 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | No | 95 | Sean Manaea | 17.3% | +475 |
| Juan Soto | SD | No | 95 | Andrew Heaney | 17.3% | +475 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | SF | Yes | 87 | Ryan Feltner | 17.1% | +485 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 17.0% | +485 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | Yes | 99 | Marco Gonzales | 17.0% | +485 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 16.8% | +495 |
| Dermis Garcia | OAK | No | 103 | Shohei Ohtani | 16.7% | +500 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | No | 98 | Louie Varland | 16.6% | +500 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | Yes | 99 | Marco Gonzales | 16.4% | +510 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | Yes | 103 | Braxton Garrett | 16.2% | +515 |
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | No | 99 | Jon Gray | 16.2% | +520 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | No | 103 | Javier Assad | 16.0% | +525 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | No | 96 | Marco Gonzales | 16.0% | +525 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 15.7% | +535 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | Yes | 103 | Eric Lauer | 15.5% | +545 |
| Luis Rengifo | LAA | Yes | 103 | Cole Irvin | 15.5% | +545 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | Yes | 103 | Ranger Suarez | 15.5% | +545 |
| Charles Leblanc | MIA | Yes | 103 | Eric Lauer | 15.5% | +545 |
| Nick Maton | PHI | Yes | 96 | Javier Assad | 15.4% | +550 |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | No | 98 | Lucas Giolito | 15.4% | +550 |
| Justin Turner | LAD | Yes | 96 | Sean Manaea | 15.3% | +550 |
| Manny Machado | SD | Yes | 96 | Andrew Heaney | 15.3% | +550 |
| Trayce Thompson | LAD | Yes | 96 | Sean Manaea | 15.3% | +550 |
| Christian Bethancourt | TB | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 14.9% | +570 |
| Conner Capel | OAK | Yes | 108 | Shohei Ohtani | 14.9% | +570 |
| Hunter Renfroe | MIL | Yes | 103 | Braxton Garrett | 14.8% | +575 |
| Jo Adell | LAA | Yes | 103 | Cole Irvin | 14.8% | +575 |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC | Yes | 103 | Ranger Suarez | 14.8% | +575 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | SF | Yes | 87 | Ryan Feltner | 14.8% | +575 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | No | 96 | Marco Gonzales | 14.4% | +595 |
| Joey Bart | SF | No | 90 | Ryan Feltner | 14.4% | +595 |
| Hunter Dozier | KC | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 14.4% | +595 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | Yes | 99 | Marco Gonzales | 14.4% | +595 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | No | 98 | Louie Varland | 14.1% | +610 |
| Victor Caratini | MIL | Yes | 103 | Braxton Garrett | 14.1% | +610 |
| Tyrone Taylor | MIL | Yes | 103 | Braxton Garrett | 14.1% | +610 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | 93 | Nathan Eovaldi | 13.8% | +625 |
| Jason Vosler | SF | Yes | 87 | Ryan Feltner | 13.6% | +635 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | Yes | 108 | Shohei Ohtani | 13.4% | +645 |
| Nick Fortes | MIA | Yes | 103 | Eric Lauer | 13.4% | +650 |
| Alan Trejo | COL | Yes | 90 | Carlos Rodon | 13.3% | +655 |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | No | 90 | Ryan Feltner | 13.1% | +660 |
| Thairo Estrada | SF | No | 90 | Ryan Feltner | 13.1% | +660 |
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | Yes | 93 | Nathan Eovaldi | 13.1% | +660 |
| Gary Sanchez | MIN | No | 98 | Lucas Giolito | 12.8% | +680 |
| Luis Urias | MIL | Yes | 103 | Braxton Garrett | 12.6% | +695 |
| Jurickson Profar | SD | Yes | 96 | Andrew Heaney | 12.6% | +695 |
| Chris Taylor | LAD | Yes | 96 | Sean Manaea | 12.6% | +695 |
| Elehuris Montero | COL | Yes | 90 | Carlos Rodon | 12.6% | +695 |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | Yes | 93 | Nathan Eovaldi | 12.5% | +700 |
| Carlos Santana | SEA | Yes | 96 | Jon Gray | 12.1% | +725 |
| Jarred Kelenic | SEA | Yes | 96 | Jon Gray | 12.1% | +725 |
| Josh Harrison | CHW | No | 98 | Louie Varland | 12.1% | +725 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | No | 98 | Louie Varland | 12.1% | +725 |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | No | 98 | Lucas Giolito | 12.1% | +725 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | No | 94 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 11.9% | +740 |
| Jorge Alfaro | SD | Yes | 96 | Andrew Heaney | 11.9% | +745 |
| Brian Anderson | MIA | Yes | 103 | Eric Lauer | 11.8% | +745 |
| Javier Baez | DET | No | 99 | Jon Heasley | 11.5% | +770 |
| Mitch Haniger | SEA | No | 99 | Jon Gray | 11.5% | +770 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | CLE | Yes | 99 | Jeffrey Springs | 11.4% | +775 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | No | 94 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 11.4% | +780 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | Yes | 90 | Carlos Rodon | 11.2% | +790 |
| Josh Bell | SD | Yes | 96 | Andrew Heaney | 11.1% | +800 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SD | Yes | 96 | Andrew Heaney | 11.1% | +800 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | Yes | 103 | Ranger Suarez | 11.0% | +805 |
| Franmil Reyes | CHC | Yes | 103 | Ranger Suarez | 11.0% | +805 |
| Matt Wallner | MIN | Yes | 99 | Lucas Giolito | 11.0% | +810 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | No | 99 | Nathan Eovaldi | 10.8% | +830 |
| Ty France | SEA | No | 99 | Jon Gray | 10.8% | +830 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | No | 98 | Lucas Giolito | 10.7% | +835 |
| David Peralta | TB | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 10.6% | +840 |
| Harold Castro | DET | Yes | 94 | Jon Heasley | 10.5% | +850 |
| Riley Greene | DET | Yes | 94 | Jon Heasley | 10.5% | +850 |
| Brandon Crawford | SF | Yes | 87 | Ryan Feltner | 10.5% | +855 |
| Triston Casas | BOS | Yes | 93 | Mike Baumann | 10.4% | +860 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | No | 95 | Sean Manaea | 10.3% | +875 |
| Livan Soto | LAA | No | 108 | Cole Irvin | 10.1% | +885 |
| Jose Siri | TB | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 10.0% | +895 |
| Willi Castro | DET | Yes | 94 | Jon Heasley | 9.8% | +920 |
| Elias Diaz | COL | Yes | 90 | Carlos Rodon | 9.8% | +920 |
| Wil Myers | SD | Yes | 96 | Andrew Heaney | 9.6% | +940 |
| Yasmani Grandal | CHW | Yes | 99 | Louie Varland | 9.5% | +955 |
| Jonathan Schoop | DET | No | 99 | Jon Heasley | 9.3% | +975 |
| Christian Arroyo | BOS | No | 99 | Mike Baumann | 9.3% | +975 |
| Michael Taylor | KC | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 9.1% | +1005 |
| Wander Franco | TB | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 9.0% | +1010 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | No | 103 | Javier Assad | 8.8% | +1030 |
| Shea Langeliers | OAK | No | 103 | Shohei Ohtani | 8.8% | +1030 |
| Jon Berti | MIA | Yes | 103 | Eric Lauer | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | No | 99 | Nathan Eovaldi | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Brandon Marsh | PHI | Yes | 96 | Javier Assad | 8.5% | +1080 |
| Tucker Barnhart | DET | Yes | 94 | Jon Heasley | 8.3% | +1105 |
| Jeimer Candelario | DET | Yes | 94 | Jon Heasley | 8.3% | +1105 |
| Jake Cave | MIN | Yes | 99 | Lucas Giolito | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | 99 | Mike Baumann | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Enrique Hernandez | BOS | No | 99 | Mike Baumann | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Tommy Pham | BOS | No | 99 | Mike Baumann | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Vimael Machin | OAK | Yes | 108 | Shohei Ohtani | 7.7% | +1200 |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | Yes | 93 | Mike Baumann | 7.5% | +1240 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | Yes | 99 | Jeffrey Springs | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Leody Taveras | TEX | Yes | 99 | Marco Gonzales | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Bubba Thompson | TEX | Yes | 99 | Marco Gonzales | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Jose Azocar | SD | Yes | 96 | Andrew Heaney | 7.2% | +1290 |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | No | 101 | Braxton Garrett | 6.8% | +1365 |
| Tony Kemp | OAK | Yes | 108 | Shohei Ohtani | 6.8% | +1370 |
| Akil Baddoo | DET | Yes | 94 | Jon Heasley | 6.8% | +1375 |
