MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 10/3/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Freddie Freeman To Record an RBI (+105)
In non-shocking news, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a 5.41 implied run total tonight.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. That's been my thought on the Dodgers and their player props this season, which isn't a hot take by any measure. They have an elite lineup and can put up runs in a hurry.
That is what we should be seeing tonight when they take on Jose Urena, who comes in allowing a .469 SLG, .390 wOBA, 4.98 xFIP, 1.02 HR/9, 13.8% strikeout rate, and 33.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. In no way am I worried about this matchup for the Dodgers, and I want to actively target Urena tonight.
That leads to Freddie Freeman, who is rocking a 171 wRC+, .412 wOBA, .199 ISO, 11.7% strikeout rate, 35.4% fly-ball rate, and 39.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Freeman is as elite of a hitter as you will find across the MLB and hits near the top of the best lineup in the league. With that said, I'm adding Freeman 2+ RBI (+400), because +400 is too big of a number for how good he is and how great the matchup is.
Luis Severino Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106)
For a strikeout prop tonight, we turn to Luis Severino of the New York Yankees.
Severino returned from the Injured List a few weeks ago and has two starts under his belt. In the first start, he went for 64 total pitches. He got up to 76 in the most recent start. This is an encouraging sign, and he should be up around 80 to 85 pitches tonight, a level that puts him in a spot to hit the over on 5.5 strikeouts.
On the season, Severino has a 27.3% strikeout rate and 12.5% swinging-strike rate, both of which are above the league average. Numbers like those should come in handy against the Texas Rangers, who have a 24.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league.
Texas' strikeout rate has jumped up to 28.7% in this split over the last 30 days (worst in the league) and 29.3% in the last 14 days (also worst in the league).
