3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Monday 10/3/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
George Kirby, P, Mariners ($8,400)
For most of his rookie year, George Kirby has been a better real-life pitcher than fantasy one due to a middling strikeout rate. His strikeout upside gets a boost tonight against the Detroit Tigers.
Detroit has been miserable against righties this year, and their projected lineup features seven players with a strikeout rate of at least 24.0% in the split this season. Detroit's 2.89 implied total is the night's second-lowest.
With a 3.29 SIERA and 3.6% walk rate, Kirby has the ability to breeze through Detroit -- just like he did on August 30th when he punched out five Tigers across five scoreless innings.
Kirby and Carlos Carrasco ($8,900) are tonight's standout value pitchers, and I side with Kirby between the two.
Max Muncy, 2B/3B, Dodgers ($2,800)
The Los Angeles Dodgers' 5.41 implied total is the slate's top mark by a wide margin, and Max Muncy is a modest-salaried way to get in on the fun.
LA is taking on Jose Urena. In 91 innings this season, Urena has struggled to the tune of a 5.05 SIERA and 14.4% strikeout rate. The last time the Dodgers saw Urena, LA scored 10 runs (7 earned) in three innings.
Muncy has recovered since a brutally slow start. With the platoon advantage, he's got a .326 wOBA, 41.1% hard-hit rate and 53.3% fly-ball rate. His second-half wOBA is .351, and he should hit in the heart of the order. The only negative with Muncy today is that he'll likely be chalk.
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Brewers ($2,500)
The Milwaukee Brewers' 4.44 implied total is tied for the second-highest on the slate, and they have a few low-salary righties who could go off versus southpaw Tommy Henry.
Henry has a 5.08 SIERA and 16.9% strikeout rate across his first 40 2/3 MLB innings. He wasn't that good at Triple-A, either, posting a 21.2% strikeout rate and 5.13 xFIP in 113 innings. Righties have a .359 wOBA against him and have smacked 1.89 dingers per nine.
McCutchen is projected to hit leadoff, and he has a 37.7% hard-hit rate versus left-handers -- a number that's up 8.4 points from his hard-hit rate against righties.
We project him to score 12.3 FanDuel points and rate him as the night's fifth-best point-per-dollar hitter. Keston Hiura ($2,000) and Mike Brosseau ($2,200) also project well, and Milwaukee's salaries pair nicely alongside a high-salary arm.
