MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 4/4/23: Could We See a Pitcher's Duel in Los Angeles Tonight?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins
Marlins ML (-144)
This modest moneyline seems to be a product of Sandy Alcantara's wobbly debut.
Alcantara surrendered three runs in 5.2 innings to the strong Mets lineup, but I don't have too many concerns about the Marlins' ace moving forward. He's posted a sub-3.20 ERA in three straight seasons, his velocity seems normal, and his swinging-strike rate from the debut (14.4%) would set a new career high if that minuscule sample held.
He's also a huge advantage over Kenta Maeda. Maeda missed all of 2022 with Tommy John surgery and will likely be eased into action today, presenting more of the Minnesota bullpen as the game progresses.
These two offenses are similar, so Miami's edge on the mound could be crucial. In 2022, the Twins' roster had a 99 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, and the Marlins (103) are actually a bit ahead, too.
While the Marlins are getting just 53% of tickets in this spot, 70% of the cash is backing the Fish.
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
Over 10.0 (-115)
The scoreboard operators in Kansas City might get a workout tonight.
Coming off last night's 9-5 win, the Royals should like their chances to keep some offensive momentum against Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi was a launching pad for homers a year ago, ceding 2.06 homers per nine. Kikiuchi's SIERA wasn't bad (4.02) behind his 27.3% strikeout rate, but the balls in play were crushed (47.1% hard-hit rate).
The Blue Jays can keep up, though. Their lineup is packed to the brim with powerful righties, and they get to bully Kris Bubic. The southpaw had some of the same issues as Kikuchi; while his 1.26 HR/9 wasn't as severe, Bubic still ceded a 44.9% hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate (18.7%) was also much lower, leaving more to chance.
These two clubs also profile to house poor bullpens for a grand majority of the season, and we're expecting warm conditions with winds blowing out in K.C. tonight. This one screams over regardless of the elevated total.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 7.5 (-108)
These two clubs combined for 17 runs last night, but the pitching matchup will vastly change the expected scoring.
The Dodgers were responsible for 13 of those, but they'll face Colorado's ace in what figures to be a tougher challenge. German Marquez was stellar on Opening Day, firing six innings while only surrendering two runs. He struck out five batters. Marquez has historically thrived at Dodger Stadium, holding a 2.33 ERA across his last seven starts facing the Dodgers away from Coors Field.
On the other side, Julio Urias isn't a prime candidate to get blown up, either. Urias posted six quality innings and two surrendered runs on Opening Day himself, but that was less of a surprise for the Los Angeles ace. His 2.16 ERA a year ago had him on Cy Young shortlists to start the year.
Many sharp bettors are expecting a pitcher's duel in L.A. tonight. Despite getting just 45% of bets, a whopping 85% of the handle is on the under for this contest.
