MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 4/6/23: Will the Tigers Win Their Home Opener?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Red Sox -1.5 (+116)
I feel bad for Detroit fans if I'm right and their team gets blown out in their home opener, but this matchup figures to be all Boston Red Sox.
The Tigers have badly struggled against left-handed pitching in their limited 2023 sample. Their 33 wRC+ is the worst mark in baseball so far, and Chris Sale has been one of the better southpaws in baseball for years.
Now, Sale was chased early from his first start of 2023, but it was incredibly unlucky. He still held a 3.42 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) with a 31.6% strikeout rate and 17.6% swinging-strike rate. If those numbers translate to a season-long sample, the lefty will be in the Cy Young conversation.
Spencer Turnbull doesn't quite get the same pass. He was chased early by Tampa Bay but legitimately struggled. His 5.64 SIERA and 16.7% strikeout rate are not what the Tigers' brass wanted to see in his official return from Tommy John surgery.
Boston's .195 isolated power (ISO) against righties thus far is the 11th-best mark in baseball. They should have a field day if Turnbull doesn't bring better stuff to this one.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Under 9.0 (-110)
This doesn't feel particularly sharp with Dustin May and Merrill Kelly dueling to a 2-1 result last Friday in Dodger Stadium, but it might just be the continued disrespect to these two hurlers.
May's 4.03 SIERA says he was a bit lucky to get through seven scoreless in that one, but he also didn't bring his best stuff. His 9.5% swinging-strike rate was a full three percentage points lower than his past two seasons with the Dodgers. He's definitely got the easier assignment against an Arizona squad with a .562 OPS against righties (third-worst in MLB) so far.
L.A. is certainly the worrisome side to this total, but perhaps Kelly brings his top-shelf stuff to Arizona's home opener. He had an odd debut against the Dodgers' renowned plate discipline (14.1% walk rate), too. He had a 23.5% walk rate and left before the completion of the fourth inning due to a 75-pitch limit, but Kelly has had a sub-8.0% walk rate for four years.
When these two pitchers clash, runs should be at a premium. Combine that was Chase Field not being quite the hitter's paradise it once was, and I think we can fire at this contrarian under not receiving many bets.
