3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 4/11/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Pete Alonso To Hit a Home Run (+290)
The New York Mets have a 4.82 implied run total tonight versus the San Diego Padres and are in a spot to flex their offense.
The Padres will have Ryan Weathers on the mound tonight, a pitcher who hasn't seen a ton of MLB action since 2021. During that season, Weathers allowed a .522 SLG, .367 wOBA, 4.85 xFIP, 2.20 HR/9, 38.1% fly-ball rate, and 41.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.
He struggles versus righty hitters -- there's no other way to put it. The Mets certainly have plenty of power in their lineup, and with warmer weather and 10-15 mph winds blowing out at Citi Field tonight, it certainly puts Weathers in a tough spot.
When it comes to the Mets' power hitters, it starts with Pete Alonso. The Polar Bear has plenty of power and showed that off last season versus left-handed pitchers with a 133 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .226 ISO, 45.1% fly-ball rate, and 31.0% hard-contact rate.
This is a favorable matchup and puts Alonso in a great spot to show off his power. As always, I'm adding Alonso to Record an RBI (-105).
Austin Riley To Record an RBI (+100)
When it comes to offense, the Atlanta Braves have plenty of it.
With a 5.34 implied run total, the Braves are expected to get the scoring going early and often tonight. That won't be a surprise because their lineup is very dangerous and offers plenty of offensive upside, especially with this matchup. They are taking on Luis Cessa, who struggled last season versus right-handed hitters, making this a clear matchup to attack.
In 2022, Cessa allowed a .346 wOBA, .487 SLG, 4.39 xFIP, 2.14 HR/9, and 37.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are some of the worst numbers you will find on tonight's slate, putting the Braves' right-handed-heavy lineup in an elite matchup.
We turn to Austin Riley, who crushed righties last season to the tune of a 125 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .227 ISO, 37.6% fly-ball rate, and 38.5% hard-contact rate. He's elite across the board, and he's gone three games without an RBI, making this seems like a clear spot for him to get on the score sheet.
Alek Manoah Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-104)
Finally, we're siding with under 6.5 strikeouts for Alek Manoah.
Manoah is a solid pitcher, there's no doubt about that, but he's not overpowering on the mound. Last season, he had a 22.9% strikeout rate, which sat just a hair above the league-average strikeout rate of 22.4%. He's an average strikeout pitcher and his prop of 6.5 seems a bit too high tonight. It feels a bit inflated due to the Toronto Blue Jays being large -290 home favorites against the Detroit Tigers tonight.
When it comes to the Tigers, they have a 23.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is 16th in the league. While it's a small sample size, the Tigers -- at least as of now -- don't look to be the same team at the plate they were in previous seasons. This has me going with under 6.5 strikeouts for Manoah tonight.
