FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 4/12/23

We have a fair number of early games scheduled on Wednesday, leaving us with a six-game main slate tonight. Note that the offering gets going at 6:35 pm ET, so get those lineups in a little earlier than usual.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

On the smaller slate, we don't have quite as many pitchers who stand out, and roughly three should be expected to occupy the majority of lineups. It just so happens that they're also the only hurlers hitting $10,000 or more tonight: Kevin Gausman ($11,100), Spencer Strider ($10,900), and Clayton Kershaw ($10,000).

All three have plus matchups, but when considering upside, it's Strider who deserves top honors.

The 24-year-old is coming off a breakout season in which he produced a 38.2% strikeout rate, and he hasn't disappointed in his two 2023 starts, boasting a 40.0% strikeout rate, 16.8% swinging-strike rate, and 34.5% called-plus-swinging-strike rate. Walks remain an issue -- he has a 13.3% walk rate this year and 8.9% over his career -- but few pitchers can match this type of firepower.

He also has an opponent who's less likely to punish him for a little wildness. The Reds' active roster has an 89 wRC+ and 25.0% strikeout rate versus righties going back to last year. Strider's also already logged 96 and 101 pitches in his starts, so he seems fully stretched out.

Combine it all, and we have Cincinnati coming in with a slate-low 2.95 implied team total, and numberFire's model is projecting the rising star for the night's best fantasy score.

Gausman has an even higher salary than Strider, but he arguably slots in next. That's because his matchup might be even better against the Tigers. Going back to last season, Detroit's active roster is last against right-handers in both wRC+ (77) and strikeout rate (25.7%).

The righty has pretty much continued where he left off in 2022, posting a 3.51 SIERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, and 5.9% walk rate through two outings. He's maxed out at 90 pitches this season and doesn't have the ridiculous punchout numbers of Strider, but he shouldn't have any trouble posting a high fantasy score against a weak lineup.

Kershaw rounds out this trio. He was dominant in his first start against the Diamondbacks (52 FanDuel points) but came crashing back down to earth against the same team last week (18 FanDuel points). The veteran southpaw still looks like the same guy as last year, though, owning an eerily similar 3.15 SIERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, and 4.2% walk rate so far.

The Giants are an ideal opponent for Kershaw to get back on track. Since the start of 2022, San Francisco's active roster is below average against lefties, including a massive 26.9% strikeout rate. In a limited sample, they've been abysmal in the split this season, as well.

Like Gausman, Kershaw likely won't get much over 90 pitches, and he comes at a nice salary discount compared to both of the others. When factoring in the cap hit, I'm not against flip-flopping Gausman and Kershaw if you need the extra cash.

On the value end, Hunter Greene ($8,000) has a tantalizing career 31.0% strikeout rate, but he also struggles with home runs, so tonight's date with Atlanta probably isn't the time to take his side. Instead, Nathan Eovaldi ($8,600) looks like the way to go.

Eovaldi's strikeout rate has fluctuated over the years, and his velocity remains a tick or two lower than his peak years, so it's fair to wonder where he lands after posting a pedestrian 22.4% strikeout rate in 2022. His 9.9% swinging-strike rate hasn't moved the needle so far in 2023, but he's still managed a 27.8% punchout rate over two starts, which is encouraging.

The matchup against Kansas City is the primary reason he makes this list, though. The Royals' active roster owns an 84 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching from 2022 onward, and they've actually been the very worst team against them to begin this season (55 wRC+). Eovaldi probably doesn't have the punchouts to keep pace with a ceiling performance from the above three, but if they falter, he should come through with a viable score at this salary.

Hitting Breakdown

The Toronto Blue Jays have a slate-high 5.20 implied team total, and as of this writing, they're one of just three teams at or above five runs.

This season, left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled against a red-hot Rays team and a potent Astros offense, and it's not going to get any easier against the Blue Jays. E-Rod's produced a lackluster 14.0% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate over 10 innings, and he's already allowed 3 dingers off a 51.5% fly-ball rate.

This is a discouraging sign for a pitcher coming off an up-and-down 2022 campaign that included a career-low 18.4% strikeout rate. Predictably, he's been mediocre against righties, but he's completely fallen off in same-sided matchups since joining Detroit. It's a small sample (18 1/3 innings), but Rodriguez has posted a 4.97 xFIP, 19.1% strikeout rate, and 14.6% walk rate versus lefties.

If we're paying up a pitcher, it's going to be difficult to fit in more than one of the power righties in George Springer ($3,700), Bo Bichette ($4,000), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,900), and Matt Chapman ($4,400), so this stack will require dipping into some lower-order value. Both Alejandro Kirk ($2,700) and Danny Jansen ($2,400) are above-average career hitters if they start, and Whit Merrifield ($2,900) has stolen-base upside in a season where stealing is on the rise.

Given E-Rod's poor lefty-lefty splits lately, it might not be a bad idea to take a shot on any left-handed batters who crack the lineup, as well.

Following Toronto, the Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, and Baltimore Orioles are other teams in plus matchups.

Attacking ground-ball pitchers like Brad Keller can be annoying, but the Rangers' lineup is loaded with fly-ball and line-drive hitters, making this less of a concern. Keller put up an uninspiring 16.5% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate and had pretty identical splits, so we don't have to be too picky with our stacks against the righty.

While he hasn't gotten lit up in 2023 thus far, early returns aren't super promising behind a 20.5% strikeout rate and 15.9% walk rate.

Corey Seager is dealing with a hamstring issue, so he'll likely be out, so that leaves Marcus Semien ($3,300) and Adolis Garcia ($3,500) as two of our best Rangers, and these salaries will be much easier to handle compared to the top Toronto bats. Josh Smith ($2,200) is a viable punt if he gets bumped up the order with Seager out, and all of Josh Jung ($2,900), Robbie Grossman ($2,700), and Jonah Heim ($2,800) are guys who rarely hit into grounders.

As noted earlier, the Braves are facing a high-strikeout pitcher in Hunter Greene, so we can't rule out the possibility of them getting shut down. But we also can't rule out a fantasy bonanza if Greene's long-ball issues come to the forefront. Over 133 2/3 career innings, the young right-hander has allowed 1.68 home runs per 9 innings, and he's susceptible to both sides of the plate.

As always, Atlanta's deep lineup offers us plenty of paths for stacking, and two-thirds of the order should come in under $3,000 apiece, allowing us access to Ronald Acuna ($4,100), Matt Olson ($4,300), and Austin Riley ($3,500) up top. Riley figures to be particularly popular at his salary.

Last but certainly not least is the Orioles, who have the slate's second-best implied team total (5.06).

Left-hander Ken Waldichuk is coming off back-to-back thrashings and comes in with a 5.50 SIERA, 14.9% strikeout rate, and 8.5% walk rate. He's already allowed a whopping 7 home runs in just 8 2/3 innings. Although it may not be a huge sample size (33 2/3 innings), Waldichuk has coughed up 2.94 home runs per 9 innings to right-handed bats in his young career.

Baltimore should have plenty of righties and switch-hitters in tonight's lineup, including guys like Ryan Mountcastle ($3,300), Anthony Santander ($2,800), Austin Hays ($2,900), and Ramon Urias ($2,900). We're also seeing hitter-friendly weather at Camden Yards. Best of all, as evidenced by those salaries, this stack pairs well with the night's high-salaried pitchers.