3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 4/13/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Rowdy Tellez To Hit a Home Run (+400)
The Milwaukee Brewers have a solid matchup against Nick Martinez, presenting them with some power potential.
Martinez will be on the mound for the San Diego Padres, and this is a matchup we should be focusing on tonight. In 2022, Martinez allowed a .401 SLG, 1.66 HR/9, 11.3% walk rate, and 37.9% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. Those numbers don't pose any type of fear for the Brewers' lefties, and it puts them in a great spot.
We can turn to Rowdy Tellez, who ended last season with a 117 wRC+, .337 wOBA, .275 ISO, 45.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Tellez saw 31 of his 35 homers come against right-handed pitchers, so this is absolutely the matchup we want to be attacking tonight.
Vince Velasquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+134)
There are two things in play for Vince Velasquez tonight, and it's why I like under 3.5 strikeouts for him.
The first thing would be that Velasquez is simply not a good pitcher. Last season, he posted a 21.6% strikeout rate, which fell below the league average of 22.4%. He allowed 1.31 HR/9 last season compared to the league average of 1.09 HR/9.
Wait, there's more! He also allowed a whopping 48.9% fly-ball rate last season, which was noticeably higher than the league average of 37.2%. He's not a supreme strikeout pitcher, he allows too many fly balls, and those fly balls turn into home runs. This causes him to have a very short leash and be pulled from games early.
The other factor would be the St. Louis Cardinals have a powerful offense and don't strike out a ton. To start this season, they have a 19.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-lowest in the league. They also have a 117 wRC+ and .160 ISO versus righties, both of which are in the top half of the league. All of this points to Velasquez having a short night on the mound.
Paul Goldschmidt To Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)
In a follow-up to Vince Velasquez not being a good pitcher, we can turn to Paul Goldschmidt, who is a great hitter.
To be a bit more specific about Velasquez against righties, he struggled in 2022 by allowing a 4.77 xFIP, 1.73 HR/9, 18.5% strikeout rate, 48.5% fly-ball rate, and 37.4% hard-contact rate. The Cardinals usually roll out a right-handed heavy lineup, putting Velasquez in a very tough spot tonight.
Last season versus right-handed pitchers, Goldschmidt posted a .154 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .225 ISO, 39.5% fly-ball rate, and 33.5% hard-contact rate.
He's elite across the board and with the Cardinals carrying a 5.16 implied run total tonight, we should see players on the bases all night.
