FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 4/13/23

We have a light Thursday main slate beginning at 6:40 pm ET that features five games. As is often the case for a slate this size, we could have a particularly narrow pool at pitcher tonight.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

In terms of strikeout potential, there's one guy who stands out above the rest, and that's Nick Lodolo ($10,800), the only pitcher with a five-figure salary on Thursday.

Lodolo had a strong rookie campaign last season, putting up a 3.29 SIERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, and 8.8% walk rate over 19 starts. We would gladly take that line tonight, but he's been straight-up dominant to begin 2023. Over his two starts, the left-hander has produced a 41.2% strikeout rate, 15.1% swinging-strike rate, and 33.9% called-plus-swinging-strike rate.

Another thing working in Lodolo's favor is workload. He's already gone 109 and 106 pitches in his opening starts, so he's fully stretched out and then some.

The result of all this has been FanDuel scores of 42 and 61 points, so the 25-year-old is well-deserving of his slate-high salary.

The only issue is that he's facing the Phillies for the second straight start -- typically a negative for pitchers -- and Philadelphia is showing a respectable 4.33 implied team total.

However, that 61-FanDuel-point performance came against this same team, the result of 7 scoreless innings and 12 punchouts. Philalphiea's active roster also has a 24.6% strikeout rate versus lefties since the start of last season, including a 25.9% mark in 2023. Maybe we don't have so much to worry about?

The Phillies should have a righty-heavy lineup and pack enough punch to cause problems at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, so this isn't to totally write off the matchup. But Lodolo has easily the best path to a ceiling game on tonight's short slate.

On a night lacking huge strikeout numbers, Jordan Montgomery ($9,400) is probably the next-best arm pretty much by default, as he gets a plus draw against the Pirates. Pittsburgh's 3.36 implied team total is the night's lowest.

Montgomery had solid if unspectacular season-long marks in 2022, but if we narrow things down to just his post-trade time with the Cardinals, he posted an encouraging 3.09 xFIP, 23.9% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate over his final 11 starts. Following a mediocre opening 2023 start, he bounced back for 9 strikeouts and 58 FanDuel points against the Brewers his last time out, so let's hope he can stay within that 24-25% strikeout rate range as he's done in some prior campaigns.

Chris Bassitt ($7,300) has been absolutely dreadful to begin the year, first getting lit up by the Cardinals and then lacking any control versus the Angels. He has a worrisome 6.30 SIERA, 11.1% strikeout rate, and 11.1% walk rate after those outings, and he's already given up five dingers. His velocity has been lacking a bit, as well.

The only reason he makes this list is his prior success, low salary, and an always inviting date with the Tigers. Detroit's active roster was a punching bag for right-handed pitching in 2022, and it's been more of the same this season with a 64 wRC+ and 25.4% strikeout rate in the split.

Bassitt's never been a big strikeout guy, but that might not matter as much on a smaller slate -- particularly if Lodolo falls short -- he was a good real-life pitcher in 2022, recording a 3.75 SIERA, 22.4% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate, and 48.8% ground-ball rate.

Joe Ryan ($9,900) is the one other guy to have on your radar. He should see the lowest roster percentage of this group by a wide margin despite logging 3.03 SIERA, 34.8% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate over his first two starts.

That's because he's up against the Yankees, an unforgiving opponent that has the third-highest implied team total on the board (4.59). Ryan has also topped out at just 81 pitches despite throwing well, so he's unlikely to match the workloads of the other three, all of whom have already cracked triple-digit pitches this season.

Still, as far as talent is concerned, Ryan is one of the slate's best, so you could do worse than take a shot on him as a contrarian play.

Hitting Breakdown

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of two teams with implied team totals above five runs, and if you're familiar with the name Vince Velasquez, it's easy to see why.

The right-hander has struggled to keep the ball in the park his entire career, giving up 1.52 per 9 innings, and a 9.4% walk rate hasn't helped his cause, either. That's naturally led to poor results more often than not, but he was still capable of submitting the occasional gem due to a 24.9% strikeout rate.

Well, it looks like the one thing that Velasquez had going for him may no longer be there, as he's scuffled in both his 2023 starts with a 10.8% strikeout rate and 13.5% walk rate. Considering he also posted a mere 21.6% strikeout rate as both a starter and reliever in 2022, Velasquez could be in for a long season.

St. Louis' active roster has been one of the best teams in the league against right-handed pitching since the start of last season (118 wRC+). Velasquez was actually worse versus righties last season (4.77 xFIP), which potentially makes this matchup even better for Paul Goldschmidt ($3,800), Nolan Arenado ($3,700), and Willson Contreras ($2,400). Contreras hasn't done much so far, but he isn't striking out much (19.0%) and is still making hard contact (45.2%), so we shouldn't shy away from rostering him in such a juicy matchup.

But overall, given both Velasquez's history and recent poor results, this is a spot to stack the Cardinals from top to bottom.

The Toronto Blue Jays are the other team cracking five implied runs, and their team total is the slate's highest (5.60).

They're facing Spencer Turnbull, another pitcher who isn't looking hot so far. Over his first two starts, the right-hander has displayed a 6.23 SIERA, 10.0% strikeout rate, and 12.5% walk rate. Turnbull is coming off Tommy John surgery, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him begin the year slowly.

The one thing he's done well so far is inducing ground balls (55.2% rate), which is something he was successful at prior to his injury. With that in mind, we should bump up fly-ball hitters like Matt Chapman ($4,500), Daulton Varsho ($3,200), and perhaps Brandon Belt ($2,200), but otherwise, this is a spot to just fit in the best Toronto bats where you can.

The Cincinnati Reds probably aren't a team we'll be looking to stack very often, but this might be an exception tonight.

The Reds will take on Bailey Falter, who's showing a middling 12.5% strikeout rate in 2023. But what should really intrigue us is that he allowed 1.71 home runs per 9 innings over 84 innings in 2022, and they came against both sides of the plate. The southpaw predictably had a lower strikeout rate versus righties (20.4%) compared to lefties (24.3%), too, which should benefit a predominantly right-handed Cincinnati lineup.

The Reds' home ballpark should also give their offense a bump, and as you might expect, these salaries are dirt cheap across the board. Jonathan India ($3,300) and Spencer Steer ($3,000) are off to strong starts to the year, and hopefully, the matchup helps Wil Myers ($2,400) and Tyler Stephenson ($2,600) find the power that's been lacking thus far.

Outside of these three stacks, the San Diego Padres are presumably facing a bullpen game from Milwaukee, and you could take a chance on the New York Yankees slugging some bombs against Joe Ryan, who allowed a 54.1% fly-ball rate last season.

Additionally, the Philadelphia Phillies aren't the craziest contrarian pick because they're in one of the best hitter's parks, and most of their hitters will have the platoon advantage. But mostly, this is about creating leverage against what should be a chalky pitcher in Lodolo. While it's not for the risk-averse, you might even consider the same move with the Detroit Tigers given how poorly Bassitt has performed.