MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 4/13/23: Looking at the Total in Toronto
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
Reds -1.5 (+152)
This line is puzzling, but I suppose we're still leaning heavily on reputations and basic stats here. The Phillies are the better team, but the Reds should be favored by quite a bit today.
These two offenses are matched up with southpaws, which hasn't been a great thing for either. Philadelphia sports a 97 wRC+ versus lefties, and Cincinnati lags behind quite a bit (79) in that department.
Here's the problem -- the Reds have the far better southpaw. That's Nick Lodolo, who has come off a strikeout-heavy 2022 and become a bonafide ace thus far in 2023. Lodolo holds a sparkling 2.48 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) with a gigantic 41.2% strikeout rate, and he's ceded just a 30.8% hard-hit rate.
Though that's a small sample, that's like a left-handed Jacob deGrom -- a distinction not applicable to Philadelphia's Bailey Falter. Falter's 2.61 ERA is hiding a 4.54 SIERA thus far, and he's left a lot to chance with a much lower strikeout rate (12.5%) and much more concerning hard-hit rate (40.0%).
If Lodolo remains on fire against the Phillies' mediocre lineup for a lefty, the Redlegs just need to plate a couple in order to cruise to a much-needed W.
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
Over 9.5 (-105)
This is a massive total for a game involving the Tigers, but it's worth remembering these clubs plated nine runs last night with a much better pitching matchup.
Despite the walk-off win, Toronto's offense didn't really get out of neutral yesterday. That's because, despite a right-hand dominant order, the Jays actually are better against righties (.826 OPS) than lefties (.734 OPS). Go figure.
They're in a great spot to get back on track against Spencer Turnbull. Making his return from 2021 Tommy John surgery, Turnbull has been rocked. He's ceded a 6.23 SIERA with a heavy rate of hard-hit balls (44.8%).
Toronto could hit double-digits themselves with Detroit's bullpen also holding the third-highest xFIP in MLB so far (5.13). However, it's not ridiculous to think the Tigers also get to Chris Bassitt.
Bassitt should be fine, but he's been lit up for a 6.30 SIERA and 42.9% hard-hit rate himself. He's held a sub-3.50 ERA in four of the last five years, but reputation can only buy so much time when the results have been so vastly different -- and his velocity is down.
He's not the primary reason for the wager, though. These clubs likely fly past this total if the Tigers do get to Bassitt, which makes it that much more comfortable to bet this.
