3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 4/14/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Julio Rodriguez To Hit a Home Run (+310)
We have a loaded 12-game slate with plenty of hitters to target, but one has my eye -- Julio Rodriguez.
Rodriguez is a rising star, and his home run prop at +310 is just a tad too high tonight given the power he's shown as well as the favorable matchup against Austin Gomber.
Last season, Gomber allowed a 1.75 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. He also surrendered a 4.15 xFIP, .534 SLG, .376 wOBA, 35.9% fly-ball rate, and 32.3% hard-contact rate in the split. He's checking off a lot of boxes we like to see when it comes to targeting pitchers for homers, which has me excited for this prop.
Versus lefties in 2022, JRod ended last season with a 142 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .200 ISO, 37.5% fly-ball rate, and 30.0% hard-contact rate. Given the matchup, it's no surprise the Seattle Mariners have a 4.71 implied run total tonight, a mark they could easily exceed.
As always, I'm looking to add Rodriguez To Record an RBI (+120).
James Kaprielian Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+116)
Next up, under 3.5 strikeouts for James Kaprielian.
While unders aren't the most exciting thing, we're getting good value on a pitcher who, ultimately, isn't very good. Kaprielian does have 11 strikeouts in 9.2 innings pitched this season, but that is far too efficient for the type of pitcher he truly is.
If we look back at last season, he posted a 17.0% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. The strikeout rate was lower than the league average, and the walk rate was higher than the league average. He also recorded a 9.5% swinging-strike rate, which was lower than the league average of 11.2%. He's simply not a very good pitcher, and he is overperforming to start this season.
The matchup against the New York Mets is a tough one since they strike out 18.4% of the time so far this season, which is the lowest rate in the league versus right-handed pitchers.
It's all about under 3.5 strikeouts tonight for Kaprielian.
Matt Olson To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)
The Atlanta Braves have a 4.71 implied run total and some nice hitting weather in Kansas City.
Brady Singer is a young pitcher for the Royals, and while he has shown some promise, he's not at a level where we need to avoid him. Not to mention the fact the Braves' lineup is arguably the best in all of baseball, so it could be a short outing for Singer.
Last season, Singer allowed a .409 SLG, .316 wOBA, 1.43 HR/9, 43.8% hard-contact rate, and 36.0% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters. The combination of that fly-ball rate, hard-contact rate, and the wind blowing out could spell disaster for the KC righty.
We turn to Matt Olson, who was elite across the board last season versus righties. He racked up a 124 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .261 ISO, 43.4% hard-contact rate, and 42.9% fly-ball rate in the splt.
He's off to a hot start this season, and this matchup should only help him keep it going.
