MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 4/19/23: Will the Angels Win Another One in the Bronx?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins
Under 8.0 (-120)
We've got a sneaky-good pitching matchup today in Miami as Alex Cobb and Trevor Rogers go head-to-head.
After an excellent first full season in 2021, Rogers struggled at times a year ago, but he righted the ship and finished with a decent 4.20 SIERA and 22.9% strikeout rate thanks to a stellar second half in which he posted a 2.75 xFIP and 28.9% strikeout rate over a small sample of 23 frames.
Rogers appears to have carried that over in 2023 as he's opened the campaign with a 3.85 SIERA and 12.5% swinging-strike rate.
Cobb put up outstanding peripherals last season, pitching to a 3.15 SIERA, 23.9% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate. He also kept the ball on the ground really well with a 61.5% ground-ball rate. He's been even better to start this year, recording a 2.95 SIERA, 22.2% strikeout rate and 3.2% walk rate -- and that's with two of his three outings coming against the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees.
Neither of these offenses are all that good. Since the start of 2022, the Miami Marlins' active roster sits just 22nd in wOBA against righties (.309) while the San Francisco Giants' active roster is 24th in wOBA versus southpaws since the start of last year (.306).
I like the pitchers to win out and for this game to stay under 8.0 runs.
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Angels Moneyline (+114)
The Los Angeles Angels won in the Bronx last night, and there are reasons to back them to do it again today.
One of the biggest reasons is Griffin Canning.
A while ago, after a 2019 rookie season in which Canning registered a 25.0% strikeout rate and 13.8% swinging-strike rate, big things were expected from the Halos' righty. He didn't continue on an upward trajectory, but he may be back on the right path right now.
Canning's 2023 debut was really impressive. With the caveat that we obviously can't get carried away with a five-inning sample, Canning amassed a 21.4% swinging-strike rate in said debut -- which came after he punched out 10 in five innings in Triple-A.
While a matchup with the Yankees is never easy, the Yanks' offense isn't all that fearsome at the moment. They're 15th in wOBA (.319) for the year with the 6th-highest strikeout rate (25.0%). They're really struggling outside of Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres -- with no other active regulars holding an expected wOBA above .348.
The Angels, meanwhile, sit one spot ahead of New York in wOBA (.321) and are powered by two of the game's very best hitters in Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. Plus, Anthony Rendon might be somewhat back as he's got a .353 wOBA so far this season.
LA will see Jhony Brito, a rookie right-hander. He's got a 4.82 SIERA and 17.4% strikeout rate across his initial 10 2/3 MLB innings. Over 70 2/3 frames at Triple-A last year, Brito struck out only 17.5% of hitters. In short, he's not a bad matchup at all for the Angels.
Maybe I'm buying into a small sample a bit too much when it comes to Canning, but I'm intrigued and think the Halos get another W tonight.
