3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 4/20/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Patrick Wisdom To Hit a Home Run (+330)

With strong 15-20 mph winds blowing out at Wrigley Field, we could see some easy home runs tonight.

Wrigley Field is particularly impacted by winds compared to other stadiums, providing a significant boost to hitters in this case. This presents us with a clear game to target for home runs, and that starts with Patrick Wisdom of the Chicago Cubs. This season, Wisdom is off to a blazing start with a 14.9% barrel per plate appearance rate, which is the seventh-highest in the entire league. He's got the power, and the wind is only going to help him.

On top of that barrel rate, he is boasting a 137 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .366 ISO, 51.9% fly-ball rate, and 39.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He's got power across the board, and with the Cubs rocking a 5.38 implied run total, it won't be a shock to see them flex the offense tonight.

He will be up against Michael Grove, a young pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers that doesn't have a lot of experience. Over the last two years, Grove has a total of 42.1 innings pitched in the MLB. It's not a large sample size but in that time, he has allowed a .403 SLG, 4.14 xFIP, 1.37 HR/9, and 39.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.

This is a great spot for the Cubs' offense, and with the wind blowing, this game should feature plenty of scoring.

Sean Manaea Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-104)

When it comes to Sean Manaea, we side with the under on strikeouts tonight.

There are two main factors for this under, and they are very simple. Manaea isn't that good of a pitcher, and the New York Mets have a good offense.

Last year, Manaea posted a 23.2% strikeout rate, 12.0% swinging-strike rate, 3.96 xFIP, and 1.65 HR/9. All of those are essentially a hair better than the league average except for HR/9, where the league average was 1.09 HR/9 last year. He's simply not a dominant pitcher on the mound, and the matchup against the Mets isn't an easy one.

This season, the Mets have a 20.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the 10th-lowest in the league. They also sport a 101 wRC+ (14th) and .156 ISO (12th), which are both in the top half of the league.

Not to mention that Manaea isn't fully stretched out this season, too. In his three starts, he has pitched 37, 76, and 82 pitches. If he isn't going deep into the game, he won't have a chance to rack up a ton of strikeouts.

Xander Bogaerts To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)

Finally, one of the best hitters in the league to record 2+ total bases at nearly even money is one of my favorite bets to target.

That hitter would be Xander Bogaerts of the San Diego Padres, who have a 4.99 implied run total against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ryne Nelson will be on the mound for the Diamondbacks, a pitcher who has a total of 35.1 innings pitched in the MLB since being called up last season.

Over that time, he has allowed a 4.72 xFIP, 50.9% fly-ball rate, 38.6% hard-contact rate, and low 17.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters. Ultimately, he's nothing notable on the mound and is due for some regression based on his xFIP outperforming his ERA.

Bogaerts has been an elite hitter in the MLB for many seasons, and I will simply side with the experienced hitter over the unproven pitchers. This season, Bogaerts is rocking a 236 wRC+, .531 wOBA, .267 ISO, and low 11.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. He isn't going to waste chances at the plate and will have plenty of opportunities to grab a few hits tonight.