3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 4/21/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Adolis Garcia To Hit a Home Run (+390)

The Texas Rangers have a juicy 4.62 implied run total tonight and a soft matchup to attack.

To put things nicely, the Oakland Athletics are struggling this year and don't have a good pitching staff. They will have JP Sears on the mound, who comes in with a limited sample size, between this season and last, when he was first called up. Over that time, he has allowed a .447 SLG, 4.59 xFIP, 1/66 HR/9, 47.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

Those are rough numbers across the board, and with the Rangers announcing they will have the roof open at Globe Life Field, the hitting environment tonight will accentuate some of his issues with flyballs and home runs.

We turn to Adolis Garcia, who has plenty of power last season with a 107 wRC+, .203 ISO, 45.5% fly-ball rate, and 32.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. His start this season could be better, but he's still in the 83rd percentile or higher in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, according to Baseball Savant.

As always, I'm adding Garcia To Record an RBI (+100) because if he hits a home run, he gets an RBI.

Tyler Mahle Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-108)

With a favorable matchup against the Washington Nationals, going to over 5.5 strikeouts for Tyler Mahle is an easy choice.

I doubt I'm the first person to tell you this, but the Nationals are not a good team this year. Their lineup doesn't present a lot of danger, and we actually want to be actively targeting them when we can find a strikeout prop. That lies with Mahle tonight, who comes in with a 27.7% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate, 3.19 xFIP, 12.1% swinging-strike rate, and 30.2% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). Mahle might not be elite, but he's super solid.

He's been over this mark in two of his three starts this season -- and over 90 pitches in each of his last two outings. Mahle is fully stretched out and should be able to get deep into the game with a weak Nationals lineup on the other side.

Trea Turner To Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)

As usual, whenever I can find a prop at near-even money for an elite hitter, I'm taking it.

That hitter would be Trea Turner of the Philadelphia Phillies, who have a slate-high 5.30 implied run total against the Colorado Rockies. Turner is really freaking good and is always picking up hits to get on base, which is why I love this prop at -105.

Last season, Turner had a low 18.5% strikeout rate, .350 wOBA, 128 wRC+, .342 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and a 35.7% fly-ball rate. He's never going to be a massive power hitter, but he doesn't chase pitches at the plate and puts the ball in play for base hits. It's everything we could possibly want.

When it comes to the pitcher for the Rockies, they will have Noah Davis on the mound. He has pitched one game this season for a total of 5.0 innings and made his MLB debut last season with a total of 1.0 innings pitched. Davis has a total of six innings pitched at the major league level.

There's nothing we can draw from this sample size, and I'm simply siding with a proven elite hitter tonight.