FanDuel Pitching Primer: Friday 4/28/23
Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.
All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top-Tier Options
Jacob deGrom, Rangers ($11,400)
deGrom is the top pitching option on tonight's 11-game slate and should be a priority option for many. As usual, deGrom is pitching at a level that is simply beyond elite, and the fantasy upside he brings with his strikeouts is unmatched on tonight's slate.
To this point in the year, deGrom has a 42.2% strikeout rate, 2.9% walk rate, 1.82 xFIP, 51.8% medium-contact rate, 21.2% swinging-strike rate, and 36.7% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). He is legitimately the best pitcher in baseball, and passing up a chance to roster him is not for the faint of heart.
The only, and I mean only, potential issue with deGrom would be his pitch count. He was only at 80 pitches in his most recent start after posting 58 pitches in an outing where he was pulled early. It's a very minor concern but has to be noted.
His matchup against the New York Yankees is a solid one considering they strike out at the seventh-highest rate versus right-handed pitchers this season (25.2%). On top of that, they have a 100 wRC+ (19th), 37.4% flyball rate (14th), and 34.2% hard-contact rate (6th).
However, they are going to be without Aaron Judge tonight. Combine that with their other injuries, and it's not looking like a lineup that can truly threaten deGrom tonight.
Framber Valdez, Astros ($10,500)
Valdez has been remarkably consistent this season and is absolutely a top pitching option tonight, but he's a clear two steps behind deGrom. Valdez is a super solid pitcher; there's no denying that, but he doesn't have the same type of fantasy upside that we see with deGrom.
This season, Valdez has a 26.0% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate, 2.90 xFIP, 40.2% medium-contact rate, 65.5% ground-ball rate, 11.6% swinging-strike rate, and 30.1% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). You show me those stats any day of the week and I'll be on board with that pitcher -- except when he's on a slate that also features Jacob deGrom.
Valdez will be taking on the Philadelphia Phillies, who are simply just average across the board. They come in with a 23.5% strikeout rate (13th), a 104 wRC+ (12th), .166 ISO (11th), and 28.6% hard-contact rate (20th). There's really nothing here that has me worried about the matchup, and with Valdez's elite ground-ball rate, he should be able to limit the damage.
Tournament Option
Alek Manoah, Blue Jays ($9,800)
When looking for a pitcher in tournaments, a good combination of upside and overall popularity is the combination we want to focus on. That is what we could be getting from Alek Manoah tonight, who is at home to take on the Seattle Mariners.
Manoah certainly isn't piling up the strikeouts this season (17.4% K-rate) as he had shown in prior seasons -- 27.7% and 22.9% -- but he has a long leash and shouldn't be popular tonight. Manoah has been up at 95, 98, and 101 pitches in three of his last four starts, showing there's no real risk of him being pulled early.
Could the 13.2% walk rate and 40.7% fly-ball rate be a bit better this season? Yes. There's no denying that, but the Mariners aren't some elite offense we need to be shying away from.
This year, the Mariners come in with a 24.4% strikeout rate (13th), .152 ISO (17th), 100 wRC+ (18th), and 37.8% fly-ball rate (13th) versus right-handed pitchers. It's another middle-of-the-road matchup, and if Manoah is going overlooked tonight, he could be a nice tournament option.
Low-Salaried Play
Tyler Anderson, Angels ($7,200)
If you're willing to roll the dice tonight, Tyler Anderson is an inexpensive option to consider.
The salary relief Anderson brings to your lineup is very clear, and on a slate that features Coors Field, loading up on hitters could be the route for many. The main point for Anderson tonight is that the Milwaukee Brewers do not have a good lineup versus left-handed pitchers.
The Brew Crew comes in with a 32.8% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the highest in the league. On top of that, they are rocking a .152 ISO (18th), 72 wRC+ (29th), 29.4% fly-ball rate (28th), and 31.8% hard-contact rate (11th). This is not a good offense in this split; there's no other way to put it.
Now, I'm not here saying that Anderson is some elite pitcher and that he's a must-roster tonight. By no means is that the case, but this matchup is very much worth attacking. Anderson comes in with a 12.0% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate, 53.5% medium-contact rate, and 48.6% fly-ball rate.
He's certainly got his flaws, but I love the matchup.
