FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 5/1/23

We have a six-game main slate for Monday, and it's one that definitely leans toward offense. Even the best pitching options are tougher to trust tonight.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

On this smaller slate, Luis Garcia ($9,600) is probably the closest we have to a "safe" pitching option. He comes in with a 4.06 SIERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, and 8.8% walk rate, which is a solid set of numbers but not exactly at the level we typically want from our top arm.

But that's the hand we're being dealt tonight, and the opposing Giants have the slate's second-lowest implied team total (3.70) The trouble is that San Francisco's active roster has a 112 wRC+ against righties going back to last season, and they've been one of the very best teams in the split in 2023. While that puts Garcia in a tough spot, the good news is that the Giants also have the third-highest strikeout rate (25.5%) versus right-handers this year, giving him a path to upside.

Following a slow start to the year, Luis has scored 58 and 49 FanDuel points in his last two outings against the vaunted Blue Jays and Rays, perhaps boosting our confidence that he can get the job done facing a capable offense.

It's telling when the best alternative to Garcia may very well be Blake Snell ($8,000), someone whose FanDuel season-high sits at 31 points. There's little to get excited about in Snell's 2023 numbers, which include a hideous 16.5% walk rate and loads of hard contact leading to home runs. Typically hovering around a 30% strikeout rate, the southpaw isn't even getting punchouts at the usual clip, sitting far lower at 23.9%.

Despite all these red flags, the Reds have the lowest implied team total (3.51), which probably says more about Cincinnati's offense than anything else. While their active roster was roughly an average team versus lefties in 2022, they've been a poor one this season (87 wRC+).

If the elite version of Snell shows up -- and there isn't any reason to think he won't at some point this year -- then he could break the slate at this salary. The trouble is we have no clue if that guy is walking through that door tonight, and he could be a chalky play on this slate, too. Deciding how you want to handle Snell may be a critical decision on Monday.

MacKenzie Gore ($10,500) is the only player with a five-figure salary, and that should prevent him from being particularly popular. Like Snell, he's walking far too many guys (14.4%), but in Gore's case, at least he's still getting lots of strikeouts (31.5%). In fact, MacKenzie leads the slate in strikeout rate, and he's coming off his best outing of the year, with a 10-strikeout, 55-point outburst against the Mets.

The Cubs are an above-average team versus left-handers, though, and their 4.50 implied team total is a bit higher than we'd like to see. But with many people likely choosing to pay down at pitcher tonight, rostering Gore could be a good way to go against the grain.

Drew Smyly ($9,300) and Domingo German ($8,400) are others to consider.

Smyly has a solid 24.5% strikeout rate, but much of that came in a ceiling game against the Dodgers of all teams, and he was in the 20-21% range over the past two seasons. The Nationals aren't a great matchup for getting whiffs, so this probably isn't the night for another big score, but their 4.00 implied team total is fairly low, and Smyly has been a quality real-life pitcher dating back to 2022.

German's 30.8% strikeout rate will definitely turn some heads on this slate, but Cleveland's active roster has the second-lowest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching (19.1%), and he's been capped at roughly 80-90 pitches this season. Given both the salary and the slate, the strikeout rate means he's pretty much in play by default, though.

Hitting Breakdown

Unlike pitcher, we have a more obvious top choice for our stacks. The Toronto Blue Jays have a slate-high 5.40 implied team total against a past-his-peak Corey Kluber, who's put up a 5.03 SIERA and 18.9% strikeout rate this season.

Kluber has allowed at least one home run in all five of his starts, and while his 17.5% homer-to-fly-ball rate suggests there may be some poor luck there, he's allowing a 52.6% fly-ball rate and isn't exactly limiting hard contact.

In terms of barrels, it's been Matt Chapman ($4,200) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,300) leading the way for the Blue Jays, so those two are worthy of their lofty salaries, and Bo Bichette ($3,900) is having a standout campaign, as well. While the same can't be said for George Springer ($3,100), his underlying numbers and overall track record suggest that he should turn things around, and this is a fantastic salary for a leadoff hitter batting ahead of that trio.

Lefties Daulton Varsho ($3,000) and Brandon Belt ($2,600) have been disappointing but could be buy-low opportunities, while Danny Jansen ($2,600) has quietly posted a .196 ISO this year.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are an offense that's pretty much always in play, and tonight is no different versus Taijuan Walker.

Walker's produced a 4.82 SIERA, 21.3% strikeout rate, and 13.0% walk rate, and he dealt with a forearm issue in his most recent start. Although he's managed to induce grounders at a high clip (59.2%), that isn't likely to save him against a team that has the fifth-lowest ground-ball rate (39.5%) versus righties.

It's easy to like just about anyone in the top two-thirds of the order, with Max Muncy ($4,400) and James Outman ($3,300) flexing the most power a month into the season. Mookie Betts ($3,800), Freddie Freeman ($3,500), and Will Smith ($3,600) are priorities as always.

The San Diego Padres are up against Luke Weaver, who may have a 31.4% strikeout rate and 15.1% swinging-strike rate through two starts, but he's also been crushed for five dingers in just 11 2/3 innings. Home runs have been an issue throughout Weaver's career, and he's never maintained this high a strikeout rate (23.6% over his career), so it's fair to expect him to continue struggling.

Fernando Tatis Jr. ($3,700), Manny Machado ($3,000), and Juan Soto ($3,400) should be the headliners in this lineup, though the latter two have underwhelmed this season. Xander Bogaerts ($3,900) has been rock-solid as usual, though, and both Matt Carpenter ($2,700) and Trent Grisham ($2,800) are showing promising power.

The Houston Astros and New York Yankees are two other teams with higher implied team totals. Ross Stripling is facing Houston, and while he's probably better than he's shown, he has just a 19.4% strikeout rate and is allowing round-trippers off a 42.3% hard-hit rate. The Yankees' lineup is compromised due to injuries, but Cal Quantrill has recorded a lackluster 5.40 SIERA and 12.8% strikeout rate in his five starts.

Although Blake Snell and Mackenzie Gore are two of the better pitching options tonight, their massive walk rates mean that we can stack against them with the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs, too. The Reds may be particularly enticing if Snell ends up being a popular play.