FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 5/5/23

This is an interesting 11-game Friday slate where there's arguably no clear-cut top pitcher or stack, which could lead to a wide range of lineup builds tonight.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Despite being one of the better offenses in 2022, several pieces in this Astros lineup have struggled to get things going, and the team's marks versus righties are underwhelming at best this season. In the split, their active roster comes ranking 23rd in wRC+ (84), 27th in ISO (.113), 25th in walk rate (7.6%), and 19th in strikeout rate (23.2%). As a result, what was once a daunting matchup may not be so bad for Luis Castillo ($10,500).

Even if Houston is better than they've shown, they'll have a difficult time squaring up Castillo, who's accrued some tantalizing numbers across six starts. The right-hander has produced a 3.48 SIERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, and 5.9% walk rate, and while he's converted that to just one ceiling game (58 FanDuel points versus Colorado), he's either faced low-strikeout teams and/or strong overall offenses in his other five games.

Castillo could be catching the Astros at just the right time, and that's backed by a middling 3.31 implied team total. On a slate with several notable names, he's arguably the top arm.

On the other side of that same game, Cristian Javier ($9,700) is facing a Mariners roster that's around league-average versus righties (101 wRC+), but they're also tied for the league's worst strikeout rate (25.7%), potentially adding upside for Javier. Although the 26-year-old's peripheral numbers aren't quite up to Castillo's standards, he's put up a solid 3.91 SIERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, and 5.0% walk rate.

Perhaps the biggest wild card of the slate is Corbin Burnes ($10,800). Outside of a stellar start against the Diamondbacks (58 FanDuel points), he's been rather meh for DFS, and a 4.49 SIERA, 19.7% strikeout rate, and 8.0% walk rate reflect that. He's also been held between 93-85 pitches across his starts, which is a concern in this salary range.

This isn't an easy spot against a Giants team that's given righties fits this year, but San Francisco is the team that's tied with Seattle in punchouts (25.7%). If the pre-2023 Burnes shows up tonight, he could crush it -- but that's a big if.

Clayton Kershaw ($11,200), Zack Wheeler ($10,200), Max Fried ($9,900), Kodai Senga ($9,800), and Jordan Montgomery ($9,500) are all in roughly this same salary tier, and while all of them are viable, you could make the case that they're below those first three.

Although Kershaw and Wheeler have been excellent, strikeout-suppressing matchups against the Padres and Red Sox are reasons to make them secondary options. Fried and Montgomery are strong real-life pitchers, but their lower strikeout rates make them tougher sells at these salaries. Senga is in an amazing spot at home against the road-tripping Rockies, but a 15.4% walk rate continues to plague him.

Just below this group, Chris Sale ($9,200) is intriguing as a borderline value, but like Burnes, who knows what we're going to get from him. On paper, his 3.85 SIERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, and 7.5% walk rate are all pretty good, so some bad luck has led to his ugly 6.75 ERA.

Sale had one dynamite game with 11 strikeouts and 52 FanDuel points, but he's otherwise been all over the place, which includes inexplicably posting zero punchouts right after that start. Yet, the Phillies' active roster has a 25.0% strikeout rate versus lefties that dates back to last season, so there's theoretically a scenario where this Sale rollercoaster goes back up.

Hitting Breakdown

We probably aren't going to get many slates with the Kansas City Royals owning the highest implied team total (5.14) this season, but that's what we're getting in their matchup against Kyle Muller and a horrendous Oakland bullpen.

Muller checks a lot of boxes, coming in with a 5.50 SIERA, 14.5% strikeout rate, and 10.9% walk rate. The left-hander isn't allowing a ton of fly balls (28.0% rate), but that's hardly enough to sway us from attacking him.

Even if Muller puts the clamps on Kansas City, their bats will still be able to take advantage of the A's bullpen. This 'pen has been the gift that keeps on giving, as their active relievers have combined for a league-worst 5.48 xFIP.

Despite the Royals' struggles against right-handed pitching, their active roster actually has a respectable 108 wRC+ versus lefties going back to last season, and they've been even better over a small 2023 sample (117 wRC+).

Bobby Witt Jr. ($3,100), Edward Olivares ($2,700), and Salvador Perez ($3,000) are the top righties to attack Muller with, and they should occupy three of the first four slots in the order. Best of all, as those salaries suggest, this is an appealing value stack, with Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,300) being the highest-salaried batter. And speaking of Pasquantino, given that shoddy bullpen, we shouldn't hesitate to also roster lefties like him and MJ Melendez ($2,800), as they also pack some punch. All five of those players have an ISO above .170 this season.

While not as extreme as the Royals' splits, the underperforming St. Louis Cardinals have also found much more success versus left-handers. Their active roster is sporting a 113 wRC+ in the split this year, and they were one of the most lethal lineups against southpaws in 2022.

Perhaps they can take advantage of a matchup with lefty Matthew Boyd and break their recent losing streak. Boyd's put together a 5.03 SIERA, 20.0% strikeout rate, 10.0% walk rate, and 33.8% ground-ball rate over five starts, and as has been the case in prior campaigns, he's been susceptible to home runs (1.46 per 9 innings).

Paul Goldschmidt ($3,800) is one of the few Cardinals who's looked like his usual self this season, but the good news is that also means he's the only one with a high salary. Both Tommy Edman ($3,100) and Willson Contreras ($3,000) haven't been letdowns, though, and the long-term data naturally points to Nolan Arenado ($2,900) being a stud against left-handers. We should see nearly an entire lineup batting right-handed, giving us a fair bit of flexibility for St. Louis stacks, too.

The New York Mets are facing Antonio Senzatela in his 2023 debut, and if it's anything like the Senzatela of years past, the Mets should roll. Although Senzatela doesn't tend to be a great pitcher to pick on for home runs due to a high ground-ball rate -- he's allowed just 1.03 home runs per 9 innings over his career despite playing for the Rockies -- he's easy to make contact on due to a poor strikeout rate. The right-hander posted a 13.1% strikeout rate in 2022 and sits at just 15.3% for his career.

Fitting Pete Alonso ($3,700) in against the low-strikeout pitcher is the obvious priority, and then it's just a matter of slotting in the pieces around him. In terms of power, left-handed hitter Dan Vogelbach ($2,500) might be the next-best choice, as he owns a career .215 ISO against righties.

The Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks are other top-notch choices. Atlanta is facing Dean Kremer, a right-hander who isn't getting punchouts (18.9%) or grounders (36.5%), leading to a home run problem (2.12 per 9 innings). Josiah Gray might be an improved pitcher against righty sticks, but a 5.59 xFIP versus lefties makes Arizona's first three batters particularly intriguing: Corbin Carroll ($3,600), Ketel Marte ($3,000), and Josh Rojas ($2,600).

Finally, the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels are two more stacks to round things out. The Twins face Peyton Battenfield, a 25-year-old right-hander who's recorded a lackluster 18.4% strikeout rate and 14.5% walk rate through 17 1/3 big league innings. The Angels are expected to get a Rangers bullpen game that should see multiple innings from Dane Dunning (13.9% strikeout rate) and a group of relievers who have combined for a 4.79 xFIP.