FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 5/9/23

Tuesday's 10-game slate has an obvious top option at pitcher, but his high salary means we'll also have to consider other hurlers in tournaments. While just two teams have implied team totals above five runs, this looks like a slate where we can go in quite a few directions for our bats.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Shohei Ohtani ($11,600) continues to be a bit wild on the mound (11.8% walk rate), but we're much more willing to overlook that when he's sporting an absurd 38.6% strikeout rate. That ranks second among qualified starters this season behind only Spencer Strider. If we exclude a rain-shortened outing, Ohtani has racked up at least eight strikeouts in five of his other six starts, and he's gone for double-digit punchouts in three of those.

Ohtani is facing a Houston offense that remains stuck in the mud, and until further notice, they look like a team we shouldn't hesitate to roster right-handed pitchers against. In the split, the Astros' active roster has an 84 wRC+, 23.8% strikeout rate, and 7.7% walk rate, and their power is practically nonexistent, too (.117 ISO). A 3.53-run implied total further backs the notion that this isn't a lineup to fear these days.

Shohei leads the slate in strikeout rate by a wide margin, and he's well worth this hefty salary.

Logan Webb ($10,500) tends to fall under that better-in-real-life category of pitcher for DFS, but it's easy to like what he's selling so far in 2023.

Webb has posted a 3.07 SIERA, 27.0% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate, and 57.9% ground-ball rate, and he's logged at least six innings in all but one of his seven starts. It's fair to wonder whether that strikeout rate will hold up, but his 31.1% called-plus-swinging-strike rate is the league's eighth-best mark among qualified starters.

Admittedly, this isn't the best matchup up to boost those K totals, as the Nationals' active roster has a 19.5% strikeout rate versus right-handers. But Webb has a ton going for him otherwise. Washington also ranks last in the split in wRC+ (76), ISO (.099), and walk rate (6.2%), and on top of all that, they also have the league's highest ground-ball rate (50.0%).

Webb came one out short of eight innings in his last start, and that's the sort of length we could be looking at tonight. The Nats have a slate-low 3.23 implied team total.

George Kirby ($9,900) could draw some attention today, but his punchouts are way down at 17.6% this year, and it's not like the Rangers have been pushovers on offense this season. On the positive side, Kirby has rattled off five straight quality starts, and he leads the league in walk rate (2.0%) and is second in soft-hit rate (24.8%). There's still a very good pitcher here. I much prefer trying to get up to Webb in this salary range, though.

Lucas Giolito ($9,300) has put up a solid 4.05 SIERA, 23.6% strikeout rate, and 5.2% walk rate over seven outings. While those numbers don't fly off the page, a matchup against the Royals will do the trick. Kansas City's active roster has the third-worst wRC+ (81) and fourth-worst strikeout rate versus right-handers. Giolito has also logged 100-plus pitches in four of his last five starts. He's a serviceable consolation prize.

In the value range, Clarke Schmidt ($8,200) and Andrew Heaney ($8,100) are potential dart throws.

Schmidt's pitch counts have been all over the place, but he did get up to 97 pitches a couple of starts ago, and this is a delectable matchup against the Athletics, the team with the night's third-lowest implied team total (3.36). Despite shaky results, there's a 3.79 SIERA, 25.7% strikeout rate, and 6.4% walk rate hiding underneath a bloated ERA, though hard contact has definitely been an issue. Note that Schmidt hasn't reached six full innings in any of his seven starts, but he did log eight strikeouts in two of his last three, so there's theoretically a big performance in him if he's given enough leash.

Other than a 10-strikeout outing against the Royals in early April, Heaney has been pretty meh this season, and he seems to have reverted back into the guy he was before last year's career-best campaign. He still has a decent 24.4% strikeout rate, though, and Seattle's active roster has produced a 27.8% strikeout rate versus lefties in 2023.

Hitting Breakdown

The Atlanta Braves have a slate-best 5.31 implied team total, getting both a plus matchup against Nick Pivetta and hitter-friendly weather at home.

You probably know the drill when it comes to Pivetta. He has a 25.4% strikeout rate, but it comes at the cost of a 9.0% walk rate and tons of hard contact. Pivetta has allowed at least one home run in five of his six starts, and there's little reason to think that won't continue.

Curiously, Pivetta has a higher xFIP (4.88) and lower strikeout rate (21.6%) in same-sided matchups this season, so perhaps there's even more incentive to roster Ronald Acuna ($4,600), Austin Riley ($3,500), and Sean Murphy ($3,900) tonight. But the dingers are coming from both sides of the plate, and Pivetta was worse against lefties in 2022, so we should feel confident in stacking all the usual suspects.

Note that outside of a few value plays like Eddie Rosario ($2,700) and Michael Harris II ($3,000), most of the Braves have higher salaries, making this a tough stack to pair with Ohtani.

The New York Yankees have a high implied team total for the second night in a row (5.14), and this time it's against Drew Rucinski.

It's been only two starts, but it sure doesn't look like Rucinski's KBO numbers are going to translate against stiffer competition. He's put up a 6.60 SIERA, 8.5% strikeout rate, and 12.8% walk rate while already giving up two home runs in 9 1/3 innings. Maybe Rucinski figures things out, but as things stand, he could be overmatched against big-league hitters. And let's not forget that a poor A's bullpen will follow him, as well.

Even better for the Yankees, Aaron Judge ($3,900) is expected to be back in the lineup, making this offense that much more formidable. Outside of Judge, all the other Bronx Bombers are at lower salaries, too, so Anthony Rizzo ($3,100), Gleyber Torres ($2,800), and the rest of the gang can be rostered on the cheap.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the type of offense that's practically always viable, and that's especially the case tonight against left-hander Eric Lauer.

Lauer comes in with a 4.91 SIERA, 21.6% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate, and 27.5% ground-ball rate, so he checks a lot of boxes for what we want in a stacking matchup. The combination of a lower strikeout rate and a plethora of fly balls and hard contact has led to the southpaw giving up 1.76 home runs per 9 innings.

The Dodgers are one of those lineups that can be stacked from top to bottom. Outside of the big names, Chris Taylor ($3,000) could bat as high as fourth against the lefty, making him an intriguing value play, and Miguel Vargas ($2,400) also has a modest salary. Taylor seems to be really selling out for power this year, as he has produced a .313 ISO despite also having a 38.5% strikeout rate.

The Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, and Milwaukee Brewers also have plus matchups.

The White Sox get Jordan Lyles, who isn't getting strikeouts (16.8%) and has been crushed for 2.45 home runs per 9 innings off a 58.3% fly-ball rate. The Giants face Patrick Corbin, who needs no introduction, but keep in mind that San Fran will have several players with pinch-hit risk, lowering some of the Giants' appeal. Milwaukee should be able to take advantage of a fading Noah Syndergaard, who has seen his strikeout rate plummet to 15.2% this season.

Finally, we shouldn't forget about the Seattle Mariners against Andrew Heaney; the left-hander has coughed up five home runs across his last two starts.