3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/10/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Randy Arozarena To Hit a Home Run (+500)
Frankly, I'm not sure why Randy Arozarena's odds are this high at +500 for a home run.
In case you haven't heard, the Tampa Bay Rays are good this year. Really, really good. They are putting up runs left and right, have power, and have plenty of consistency. Tonight, they come in with a 4.89 implied run total, and given what we've seen from this season, it wouldn't surprise anyone if they double that amount.
They will be taking on Dean Kremer, a pitcher who struggles with fly balls and is very much worth targeting for some home runs. This season, Kremer is allowing a .431 SLG, 5.01 xFIP, 1.40 HR/9, 39.7% fly-ball rate, and 32.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. His stats are equally as bad against lefties this season, so we could see the ball flying out for the Rays tonight.
When it comes to Arozarena, he's rocking a 152 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .176 ISO, 36.7% fly-ball rate, and 44.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this year. I love this matchup for him and the Rays, so I'm also adding Arozarena To Record an RBI (+115).
Pablo Lopez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Pablo Lopez has been solid this season for the Minnesota Twins and can keep that going tonight versus the San Diego Padres.
When it comes to elite pitchers and household names, Lopez probably isn't at the top of the list but is certainly pushing his name into the conversation. This year, he has a 30.7% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate, 3.34 xFIP, 14.6% swinging-strike rate, and 29.3% called-plus-swinging-strike rate (CSW%). Those are elite across the board and puts him in a great spot to have a high level of consistency on a nightly basis.
This has allowed Lopez to hit the over on this 6.5 mark in six of his seven starts this season, four of which have been at eight strikeouts or higher.
The matchup against the Padres is better than you might assume considering they are known for the power in their lineup. This season, the Padres have a 25.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fourth-worst in the league. That rate changes to 26.8% when they are on the road, as they are tonight. It's not a massive change but any edge in favor of the pitcher is a good one.
Luis Robert To Record an RBI (+105)
The Chicago White Sox have a juicy 5.03 implied run total against Brad Keller tonight.
To put things lightly, Keller is not a good pitcher. To be specific about that, Keller comes in with a 6.27 xFIP, 17.1% strikeout rate, 20.0% walk rate, .382 SLG, .366 wOBA, and 1.23 HR/9 allowed to right-handed hitters this season. His walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate!
He simply doesn't have it on the mound this season, and it puts the White Sox in a great spot to get some offense going tonight.
We turn to Luis Robert, who has a 99 wRC+, .315 wOBA, .216 ISO, and 39.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. His numbers against lefties are even better, so when it gets to the Kansas City Royals' bullpen tonight, he will be in a great spot no matter who he is facing.
