FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 5/10/23

On a smaller six-game main slate, there isn't really a must-have pitcher or stack, but we still have a fun selection on both sides of the equation.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Pablo Lopez ($10,600) has some of the slate's best overall numbers, entering the day with a 3.16 SIERA, 30.7% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate. Lopez has put up a career-high 14.6% swinging-strike rate, and in the process, he's logged at least seven strikeouts in six of his seven starts.

The Padres' 4.07 implied team total against Lopez is higher than we normally like to see, but the same can be said for all our pitching options tonight. And the truth is that San Diego's offense has underperformed this season, as their active roster owns a 98 wRC+ and 25.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. On a slate with no clear-cut top choice, Lopez gets the nod.

It remains to be seen what we'll get out of Justin Verlander ($10,500) this season, but his 2023 debut was generally positive, accumulating five strikeouts in five innings against Detroit while showing his usual velocity. He did allow a pair of home runs, though, and now has to deal with hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park tonight.

The good news is that Cincinnati's active roster has a 93 wRC+ against right-handers this year, and their .125 ISO in the split is among the league's lowest marks. The Reds' lack of power should help Verlander keep the ball in the park despite his fly-ball tendencies, and his strikeout potential isn't in question if he's anything like the guy who produced a 27.8% strikeout rate in 2022.

Verlander got up to 79 pitches in his first start, so he should be closer to a full workload this time around, as well. Considering the unknowns that come with rostering a 40-year-old in just his second start returning from injury, Lopez is the preferred choice at roughly the same salary, but Verlander's track record speaks for itself if you want to flip-flop them.

Hunter Greene ($9,500) looks like the boom-or-bust choice on Wednesday. Greene leads the slate with a 31.3% strikeout rate, and his 3.74 ERA is backed by a 3.41 SIERA. Walks have occasionally been an issue, but his 8.0% walk rate is one percentage point lower than last year. The Reds haven't been afraid to fully unleash their young right-hander lately, either, as he's gone 112 and 102 pitches over his last two outings.

While that's all well and good, the problem is that he's facing the Mets, an above-average offense versus righties (104 wRC+) that doesn't strike out very often (20.1% strikeout rate) and is patient at the plate (11.3% walk rate). In fact, New York has one of the night's highest implied team totals (4.99).

Greene will also have to contend with his dinger-boosting home venue, and despite a lack of home runs allowed so far, he gives up a ton of fly balls (46.0%) and struggled with round-trippers in 2022.

The dangers of this matchup are obvious, leaving Greene as a risky play, but his punchout upside still puts him in the running for tournaments.

Lance Lynn ($8,800) should be a popular play at this salary, and he's the best value option. The results haven't been there (6.86 ERA), but his BABIP (.360), strand rate (64.0%), and homer-to-fly-ball rate (22.5%) are all out of whack and should regress closer to his career averages over time. A 3.70 SIERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, and 8.6% walk rate suggest he's deserved much better, as well, and this is an ideal matchup to buy in against the Royals.

Against righties, Kansas City's active roster has the league's third-worst wRC+ (80), fourth-worst strikeout rate (25.1%), and second-worst walk rate (6.4%). Lynn has cracked 100 pitches in four straight starts, and the stage is set for him to bounce back in a big way tonight.

Hitting Breakdown

The Atlanta Braves lead the way with a 5.50 implied team total, as it will be 82 degrees in Atlanta and right-hander Brayan Bello hasn't quite found his grove as a big-league pitcher yet.

Bello actually has some things going for him, boasting an impressive 56.4% ground-ball rate and a respectable 23.2% strikeout rate, and his 3.79 SIERA suggests he's pitched far better than his 5.71 ERA. And yet, he's also allowing a 48.2% hard-hit rate, which has contributed to him giving up exactly one home run in each of his four starts.

Perhaps we would give Bello the benefit of the doubt against a different team, but an Atlanta lineup loaded with power should be able to punish him. We don't need to be too picky here, but Matt Olson ($4,200), Sean Murphy ($3,900), and Eddie Rosario ($2,700) are among the Braves with the lowest ground-ball rates, making them ideal for this matchup.

The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the better stacks in a plus matchup versus Dean Kremer. Kremer has recorded a poor 4.76 SIERA and 17.9% strikeout rate, and a lack of grounders (37.5%) combined with a plethora of hard contact has contributed to him giving up 1.77 home runs per 9 innings.

Tampa Bay's active roster has a ridiculous 140 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season, which is easily the league's best. Chances are they'll come back down to earth over the long season, but as things stand, they're looking like a lineup we can stack in a multitude of ways. Incredibly, 10 different players on the roster have an ISO of .240 or better to begin the year.

However, given all their success, this stack doesn't come cheap, though. Yandy Diaz ($3,900), Wander Franco ($3,800), and Randy Arozarena ($4,400) should occupy the first three slots in the order, and as their salaries would suggest, they've been outstanding at the plate. Franco also leads the team with nine stolen bases, giving him another path to fantasy points.

But considering the way this team is firing on all cylinders, you can easily make a stack without these three, with most of their other hitters coming at between $3,400-$3,600. Jose Siri ($3,000) is one of the lone value plays we can expect in the lineup, and he already has three home runs and three stolen bases in just 16 games.

On the other side of that Atlanta game, the Boston Red Sox are in play against left-hander Jared Shuster, who is expected to get called up from Triple-A for the start. Shuster's first two MLB starts didn't exactly go swimmingly in early April, resulting in an ugly 7.74 SIERA, 11.1% strikeout rate, and 20.0% walk rate. While he's gotten better results in Triple-A since his demotion, a 20.7% strikeout rate and 15.9% walk rate show that a dramatic improvement in his third MLB start is unlikely.

Righties Justin Turner ($2,800) and Enrique Hernandez ($2,800) will have the platoon advantage at value salaries, and Rob Refsnyder ($2,400) may get the start as a discount leadoff man. But when considering Shuster has come short of five innings in his previous two starts, we shouldn't hesitate to also roster Boston's lefty sticks like Rafael Devers ($4,100), Alex Verdugo ($3,600), and Masataka Yoshida ($3,700).

The Chicago White Sox and New York Mets have the second- and third-highest implied team totals. The Pale Hose have been an underwhelming offense against right-handers, but they have to be considered against Brad Keller, who comes in with a wretched 6.27 SIERA, 15.8% strikeout rate, and 17.7% walk rate. Keller's 55.3% ground-ball rate is a nuisance, though. The Mets are facing the aforementioned Hunter Greene, and if the bad version of Greene shows up, it could lead to walks and dingers.