MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/11/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Wilmer Flores To Record an RBI (+100)
The San Francisco Giants have a slate-high 5.02 implied run total and are primed for some offense tonight.
While the Giants have been a bit up and down this season, they have a solid matchup today against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who will have Tommy Henry on the mound. Henry is a young pitcher with only 15.2 innings pitched at the MLB level this year.
It's a small sample size, so take everything with a grain of salt. Henry has allowed a .338 wOBA, .419 SLG, 6.23 xFIP, 12.2% walk rate, 12.2% strikeout rate, and 45.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. There's really nothing encouraging for Henry, and in fact, we should be looking to target him when he is on the slate.
We turn to Wilmer Flores, who is crushing lefties this season with a 171 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .324 ISO, 42.1% fly-ball rate, and a low 16.7% strikeout rate in the split. He usually hits in the heart of the Giants' lineup and should have plenty of chances to knock in some runs.
Yandy Diaz To Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)
Yandy Diaz is on fire this season, and with this prop at plus money, I'm taking it 10 times out of 10.
The Tampa Bay Rays have a 4.32-run implied total tonight and are set to take on Domingo German, who they faced just last week. Conventional baseball wisdom says that hitters will often have better success against a pitcher when facing him a second time in a short window. The Rays are an elite team, and any advantage they can get is something we want to jump at.
Diaz comes in with a 209 wRC+, 466 wOBA, .265 ISO, 35.3% fly-ball rate, and 43.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. That's a near-perfect hitting profile, and given the fact the Rays are getting a positive park shift at Yankee Stadium, this is looking juicy.
For German this season, he allows a .422 SLG, 3.70 xFIP, 1.56 HR/9, and a 40.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. It's a bit of a mixed bag for him in this split, but if the advantage is going to sit with the hitters the second time they face him, I'll take Diaz in this matchup.
