3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/17/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Anthony Rizzo To Hit a Home Run (+390)

Anthony Rizzo was just named AL Player of the Week and has a great matchup to keep that production going.

Baseball can be a very up-and-down sport due to the length of the season, and right now, Anthony Rizzo is way up. The power, the consistency, and the production have all been there for him, and we want to capture that via some player props.

To this point in the season, Rizzo has a 141 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .235 ISO, 51.1% fly-ball rate, 40.7% hard-contact rate, and 17.4% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. It's clear we want to target pitchers that struggled versus lefty power hitters, and that's what we have in Chris Bassitt tonight.

While Bassitt has been okay at face value, taking a deeper look into things tells a different story. Against lefties this season, Bassitt is allowing a .500 SLG, .374 wOBA, 5.85 xFIP, 2.14 HR/9, and 44.1% fly-ball rate. This is looking like a juicy matchup for Rizzo to keep the power going, so I'm adding Rizzo To Record an RBI (+145).

Kodai Senga Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-108)

While Kodai Senga has plenty of promise long-term, he is struggling right now.

Senga has a mixed bag of results for the New York Mets and it can often put him in a tough spot on the mound. A 26.4% strikeout rate is certainly very promising, but he's also carrying a 14.1% walk rate and allowing 1.46 HR/9. The walks are a real issue -- especially when he's going up against a team like the Rays tonight.

The Rays come in with a 21.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-lowest in the league. Tampa also sits in the top half of the league -- 9.2% -- for walk rate versus right-handed pitchers. I'm not even mentioning the fact they have a 137 wRC+ (1st in MLB) and .229 ISO (1st).

They are absolutely elite in this split, and they aren't wasting chances at the plate with too many strikeouts. This doesn't set up to be a favorable matchup for Senga, which has me going with the under tonight.

Justin Turner To Record 2+ Total Bases (-115)

The Boston Red Sox have a slate-high 4.91 implied run total and are in a spot to keep their offense rolling tonight.

With the third-most runs scored this season, getting exposure to the Red Sox offense has been a consistent and profitable way to approach player props. That should continue tonight with a matchup against Marco Gonzales ahead.

Gonzales isn't a horrible pitcher, but by no means is he a great pitcher, either. He comes in with a 4.91 xFIP, 3.52 wOBA, .473 SLG, 1.33 HR/9, 16.1% strikeout rate, 40.4% fly-ball rate, and 35.2% hard-contact rate against right-handed hitters. He isn't a big-time strikeout pitcher and often gets hit around a good amount.

This puts righties in a favorable spot, and that means we are turning to Justin Turner. The veteran is rocking a 115 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .176 ISO, 48.7% fly-ball rate, and 41.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. He hits in the middle of the lineup and should see good pitches at the plate with Rafael Devers hitting behind him.