MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 5/17/23: Digging for Value Between Two Solid Clubs in Baltimore
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
Angels ML (+124)
In a matchup that profiles to be tight, there's value in a long number with the Angels here.
Two righties will square off in this one. Griffin Canning will toe the slab for L.A., and Kyle Bradish will take the mound for the Orioles at home. With that the case, it's worth mentioning that the Halos (.749 OPS versus righties; ninth-best in MLB) have been considerably better in this split than the O's (.704 OPS).
Despite the ERA difference, Canning and Bradish are very similar. Canning's 6.38 ERA is a bit unlucky considering he's got a 4.58 skill-interactive ERA and cedes just a 37.5% hard-hit rate. Bradish's 4.22 SIERA and 24.5% hard-hit rate allowed are better in a small sample, but the gap isn't huge.
L.A. should be a bit more comfortable at the plate, but Bradish is also slightly a better pitcher. This could be a close one, but the 44.6% implied odds that the Angels win just aren't appropriate in what I've got as a pick 'em.
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox
Mariners ML (+110)
Boston's significant drop-off against lefties might not be getting enough love here.
Against a righty, they're dominant. Their .804 OPS trails only the Rays. However, against lefties, things tail off quite a bit to a .742 OPS (16th-best in baseball). Marco Gonzales (4.99 SIERA) isn't the most inspiring lefty and doesn't generate many whiffs, but his low hard-hit rate allowed (32.7%) does show some competence.
The Red Sox will counter with Brayan Bello, and Bello's 5.08 expected ERA (xERA) shows he's not perfect, either. Bello's hard-contract rate allowed (41.1%) is significantly higher, and that could be playing with fire against an improving Seattle offense. After a dismal start, the M's have a 106 wRC+ against righties (11th-best in MLB) this month.
Seattle's bullpen xFIP (3.68) is also significantly better than Boston's (4.44) if this one is to be decided after the starters depart.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Over 9.0 (-102)
This high total for two poor offenses had me skeptical, and upon an investigation of today's pitching matchup, it makes a lot more sense.
At a top-three park for home runs, Cleveland's Peyton Battenfield appears to be vulnerable to giving them up. In addition to 1.19 HR/9 allowed thus far, his flyball rate (39.8%), hard-hit rate allowed (44.1%), and barrel rate (13.1%) seem like a cocktail for opposing dingers.
Chicago's starter is in the same boat. Mike Clevinger has never found the form that he once held with Cleveland, and his slide has continued with the Pale Hose. Clevinger's 5.20 SIERA, 52.8% flyball rate, and 1.52 HR/9 are all indicative of his rough season, and the White Sox's 'pen (4.36 xFIP; 10th-worst in MLB) hasn't fared much better.
It definitely hurts the Guards that Jose Ramirez is away from the team, but this number isn't that high for two offenses to wallop struggling hurlers. With just 44% of tickets and 15% of the money on this over, I'll at least know I've squeezed every drop of value out of this number -- which is trending toward 8.5.
