MLB Betting Guide for Friday 5/19/23: 3 Feisty Underdogs To Close the Week
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
Cubs ML (+112)
The Cubs crush left-handed pitching, so it's easy to like them against one with their Opening Day starter on the bump.
Specifically, Chicago's .822 OPS in the split is third-best in baseball. This is no layup despite Ranger Suarez's 6.75 ERA, though. Considering his 3.87 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), he has deserved better. Still, Suarez has some concerning bits of his profile, including a pedestrian 20.0% strikeout rate and an elevated 40.0% hard-hit rate allowed.
When looking at expected ERAs (xERA), Suarez (4.72) has still lagged behind Chicago's Marcus Stroman (4.53). Stroman also has a solid 3.87 SIERA. His profile is slightly better across the board with a higher strikeout rate (23.2%) and minuscule hard-hit rate allowed (29.4%).
With a .767 OPS in their right-handed split, Philadelphia should also be projected as the less capable offense here. They're at home, but this game should be a pick 'em at worse. That puts value behind the Cubbies.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
Royals ML (+110)
I've grown quite fond of betting on Zack Greinke this year and definitely didn't expect that entering 2023.
Greinke's 4.44 SIERA tells the story of a middle-of-the-road pitcher seen as a bum. The crafty veteran has allowed just a 29.2% hard-hit rate to avoid getting shelled, and today, he'll face a White Sox offense that has the ninth-worst wRC+ (89) against righties.
Chicago will counter with Michael Kopech, whose post-break slump last year has continued into an ugly 7.64 xERA to start this season. Many think he should handle the lowly Royals because their overall wRC+ (78) is third-worst in baseball from this split, but Kansas City's 109 wRC+ against righties this month has shown great improvement from being a doormat in April.
Plus, as this game enters the bullpens behind these two, K.C. (4.18 reliever xFIP) has had an edge over Chicago (4.38) there, too. We should assume great value behind the Royals given they're getting just 38% of bets from this tight moneyline.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
Angels ML (+110)
While Joe Ryan has been dominant, this pitcher's duel could easily favor the Angels when it's all said and done.
Ryan's 2.16 xERA tells the story; he's been spectacular with a lofty 29.7% strikeout to boot. However, Los Angeles' .778 OPS against orthodox hurlers (seventh-best in MLB) should provide some hope the Halos make him work for it tonight. Ryan's resumé does boost plenty of dominant outings over the Royals, White Sox, Guardians, and Aaron Judge-less Yankees.
Los Angeles' starter, Reid Detmers, should have an easier time with Minnesota's lineup. The Twins' .731 OPS against lefties is the 12th-worst mark in baseball, and they strike out a gargantuan 27.9% of the time against southpaws.
Detmers threw a no-no last year, but his stuff (13.0% swinging-strike rate) has actually been significantly better in 2023. Minnesota's propensity to strike out should work hand-in-hand with Detmers' 26.3% punchout rate.
Getting just 28% of the money, there isn't a short underdog going ignored today as heavily as the Angels. With a significant split advantage, we should fade the public.
