MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 5/24/23: The Rare Contrarian Over at Coors Field
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates ML (+106)
This feels similar to the pick two days ago with the Pirates, but their outlook might be even better today.
Johan Oviedo is one of Pittsburgh's best hurlers, amassing a 3.90 expected ERA (xERA) to this point. He's done a particularly good job limiting the hard contact (26.1% rate) and homers allowed (0.75 HR/9). That'll help keep Texas' elite offense (115 wRC+ versus righties) at bay.
The Buccos can keep up, though. They've got a 115 wRC+ against left-handed pitching entering this date with southpaw Martin Perez. Despite the gap in name recognition, Perez (4.99 xERA) has actually underperformed his opposition today, holding his usual low 17.6% strikeout rate in 2023.
As mentioned on Monday, Pittsburgh also has the better bullpen. They're a great package as a short home 'dog in this spot.
Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers ML (-108)
I can't really figure out why the Brewers, at home, are only getting approximately 30% of the tickets and handle in this pick 'em, but I'll take it.
Milwaukee will send Adrian Houser to the bump, and he's quietly putting together an excellent campaign. His 3.48 xERA would be the second-lowest mark of his career if it held, and the sinkerballer (54.2% groundball rate) has done a phenomenal job limiting long balls (0.61 HR/9).
Houston will counter with Brandon Bielak, a righty who does have a similar formula to Houser. However, unlike his counterpart, Bielak's been a bit fortunate to amass a 2.89 ERA when his 5.87 xERA is considerably worse. That's due to 1.45 HR/9 and a massive barrel rate allowed (15.3%).
The cherry on top? Milwaukee (99 wRC+ against righties) has been the better offense in this split compared to the defending champions (93). I think that name value is the driving force of why folks are betting Houston in this pick 'em, but we'll fade that for what our data has pulled.
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Over 11.0 (-102)
Coors Field has been quiet with consecutive games under 10 runs. That could change today despite one of my favorites on the bump for Miami.
Sandy Alcantara just hasn't been quite as sharp in 2023. His ERA (5.05) appears to feature a bit of bad luck when he's rocking a 4.18 xERA behind it, but that mark isn't one to shy away from when he's about to make a start at baseball's funhouse -- especially considering a reduced 22.6% strikeout rate.
Of course, you won't hear much pushback on the other side of this one. Karl Kauffmann has been everything you'd want from a Rockies starter when targeting an over. His 9.72 xERA, 2.08 HR/9, and 13.3% barrel rate are all varying levels of poor, and none of them will help him get outs.
Both of these clubs sport a bottom-16 bullpen (by xFIP), so it's a bit surprising the ballpark hasn't ballooned with runs to this point in the series. As a majority of bettors flock to a third straight under, this is a solid spot to turn the other way.
