MLB

3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/25/23

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 May 25th, 2023

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Jake Burger To Hit a Home Run (+350)/
Gavin Sheets To Hit a Home Run (+480)

With a bit of wind blowing out in Detroit, a pair of White Sox hitters are in a great spot for a home run.

Favorable hitting conditions and a bad pitcher are the ideal combination when looking for some home run props. That's what we have for the White Sox, who come in with a 4.26 implied run total tonight. They are set to take on Alex Faedo, who only has 15.2 innings pitched this season, so let's look back at his career numbers starting last year.

For his career, Faedo has allowed a .341 wOBA, .479 ISO, 5.36 xFIP, 1.66 H/9, 49.6% fly-ball rate, and 37.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.

Against righties, he has allowed a .350 wOBA, .453 ISO, 4.45 xFIP, 1.44 HR/9, 42.9% fly-ball rate, and 33.7% hard-contact rate. It's bad on both sides for Faedo, putting Jake Burger and Gavin Sheets in a good matchup.

Burger comes in with a 126 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .333 ISO, 43.1% fly-ball rate, and 45.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. Sheets enters with a 114 wRC+, .336 wOBA, .186 ISO, 52.3% fly-ball rate, and 27.9% hard-contact rate versus righties.

Some favorable wind blowing out to right field and a weak pitcher should put the White Sox in a spot for some homers tonight.

Anthony Rizzo To Record 2+ Total Bases (+120)

The New York Yankees have a solid 4.71 implied run total and a great matchup versus Kyle Gibson.

When it comes to Gibson, he's a very non-threatening pitcher on the mound. What I mean by that is he's carrying a 15.7% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters, compared to the league average of 22.6%. He doesn't punch out many hitters at the plate and gets hit around a lot.

This season, he has a .398 wOBA, .535 SLG, 4.66 xFIP, and .363 BABIP versus left-handed hitters. He's not making hitters swing and miss at the plate with a 9.7% swinging-strike rate, putting hitters in a great spot for contact and balls in play.

We turn to Anthony Rizzo, who has a 139 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .319 BABIP, .240 ISO, and 39.4% hard-contact rate versus righties this season. He's as consistent as they come and has great odds tonight versus Gibson.